721
FXUS01 KWBC 121813
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
112 PM EST SUN NOV 12 2023
VALID 00Z MON NOV 13 2023 - 00Z WED NOV 15 2023
...MAINLY BENEFICIAL, DROUGHT REDUCING RAINFALL ACROSS THE WESTERN
AND CENTRAL GULF COASTS; WIDELY SCATTERED, TYPICALLY PRONE AREAS
MAY EXPERIENCE LOCALIZED FLOODING...
...LIGHT SNOW WILL DEVELOP OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN CASCADES
AND NORTHERN ROCKIES ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY; LIGHT SNOW OVER
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND ON MONDAY...
...BROAD AREA OF ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND PLEASANT WEATHER
SHOULD DOMINATE THE CENTRAL ROCKIES, CENTRAL & NORTHERN PLAINS
INTO THE MIDWEST; SPOTS OF 15-25 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL IS POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST...
A STALLED FRONT ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL START TO BUCKLE IN
RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING WEAK MID-LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
EXITING THE FOUR CORNERS. AN SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP IN THE
WESTERN GULF AND ENHANCE THE UNSETTLED WEATHER ALONG THE GULF
COAST (PARTICULARLY WEST AND CENTRAL). PROLONGED MODERATE AND
OCCASIONALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE BENEFICIAL
RAINFALL TO THE DROUGHT STRICKEN REGION; HOWEVER, GIVEN THE
PROLONGED NATURE, SPOTS OF FLOODING CANNOT BE RULED OUT ESPECIALLY
IN SENSITIVE AREAS LIKE URBAN CENTERS OR ALONG ROADWAYS. THE
HIGHEST FOCUSED AREA OF RAINFALL IS LIKELY TO AFFECT FAR SE TEXAS
INTO LOUISIANA FROM LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY, SLIDING TOWARD THE
WESTERN FL PANHANDLE BY LATE TUESDAY. A MARGINAL RISK OF
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL HAS BEEN POSTED BY THE WEATHER PREDICTION
CENTER FOR EACH DAY FROM S TX ON SUNDAY TO E TX/LA ON MONDAY AND E
LA TO W FL ON TUESDAY, OCCASIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AND
WITH LIMITED SUNSHINE WILL KEEP TEMPS IN THE 60S AND LOW 70S,
GENERALLY ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
THE PACIFIC STREAM IS LIKELY TO BE A BIT MORE ACTIVE THROUGH THE
PERIOD, THOUGH GENERALLY AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. A WEAK
SURFACE LOW AND ASSOCIATED FRONT LIFT THROUGH THE NORTHWEST AND
ACROSS BRITISH COLUMBIA LATER TODAY INTO MONDAY BRINGING TYPICAL
LIGHT RAIN AND HIGH-ELEVATION SNOWS TO THE CASCADES. AN MID-LEVEL
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DIG SOUTHWARD ON MONDAY, WELL WEST OF
THE WEST COAST AND DEVELOP A STRONGER, DEEP SURFACE LOW ALONG
130W. THIS WILL KEEP CLOUDY AND ABOVE AVERAGE MOISTURE IN
PROXIMITY TO THE CALIFORNIA AND OREGON COAST THROUGH TUESDAY WITH
THE MORE SIGNIFICANT WEATHER/ROUGH SEAS STILL WELL OFF-SHORE.
ELSEWHERE, THERE WILL BE SOME LIGHT RAIN/SNOWS FOR THE NORTHEAST
AHEAD OF A FAST MOVING AND RAPIDLY WEAKENING OLDER PACIFIC SYSTEM
THAT HAS CROSSED INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS TODAY. THIS
SHOWERS/SNOW SHOWERS WILL TRANSLATE ACROSS NY INTO NEW ENGLAND
LATER MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WITH LITTLE FANFARE, WITH ONLY SLIGHTLY
BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES. BEHIND THIS SYSTEM, WELL ABOVE
WARMER AIR WILL COVER MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE CONTIGUOUS US,
REINFORCED BY THE PACIFIC SYSTEM AFTER CROSSING THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE INTO THE
50S AND 60S ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS, GENERALLY 15-25 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL.
GALLINA
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