475
FXUS01 KWBC 131949
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
249 PM EST MON NOV 13 2023
VALID 00Z TUE NOV 14 2023 - 00Z THU NOV 16 2023
...COOL TEMPERATURES AND BENEFICIAL RAINS TO CROSS OVER THE
DROUGHT-STRICKEN GULF COAST STATES...
...MILD AIR EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND
STRETCHING EAST ACROSS LARGE AREAS OF THE PLAINS AND MIDWEST...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS TONIGHT, REACHING THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO LATE
WEDNESDAY. THIS FEATURE, IN COMBINATION WITH A SLOW MOVING LOW
PRESSURE CENTER ALONG A FRONT IN THE GULF AND ANOMALOUSLY HIGH
MOISTURE WILL HELP TO SUPPORT A BROAD SWATH OF RAIN IN THE
VICINITY OF THE GULF COAST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. MODERATE
TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES FOR THE CENTRAL
GULF COAST BEGINNING TONIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT,
BUT GIVEN ONGOING DROUGHT CONDITIONS DUE TO A LACK OF APPRECIABLE
RAIN OVER THE PAST SEVERAL MONTHS, MUCH OF THIS RAIN SHOULD BE
WELCOME GIVEN THE EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT (LEVEL 5 OUT OF 5) THAT IS
IN PLACE FOR THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. ON WEDNESDAY, THE
THREAT FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL INCLUDE PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN
FLORIDA PENINSULA. SHOULD ANY AREAS OF FLOODING OCCUR, THEY SHOULD
BE LOCALIZED AND LIKELY CONFINED TO URBAN LOCATIONS. ABUNDANT
CLOUD COVER SHOULD ALSO HAVE THE EFFECT OF KEEPING DAYTIME MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES 5 TO 10 DEGREES COLDER THAN MID-NOVEMBER AVERAGES
THROUGH WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES.
A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN AND A
SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES CLIPPING THE NORTHERN TIER
STATES WILL MAINTAIN THE PLACEMENT OF A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT AT
THE SURFACE FROM NORTHERN CALIFORNIA INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS
INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. WHILE THE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT ACROSS
THIS FRONT WILL NOT BE ESPECIALLY STRONG, UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL
EXIST NEAR THE BOUNDARY INCLUDING LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW FOR
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE NORTHERN CASCADES AND ROCKY MOUNTAINS.
ACROSS THE CENTRAL TO EASTERN U.S., HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE
THROUGH WEDNESDAY, KEEPING PRECIPITATION AT BAY FOR MOST OF THE
REGION. LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ARE LIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHEAST TONIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES OVER THE REGION,
BUT AFTER THAT, NO PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT FROM THE GREAT PLAINS TO THE EAST COAST (WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF THE GULF COAST REGION MENTIONED EARLIER). MILD, SOUTHERLY
RETURN FLOW ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE RIDGE WILL KEEP HIGH
TEMPERATURES FROM THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS TO THE
MIDWEST 10 TO 25 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH WEDNESDAY UNDER
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. WARMER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES (10 TO 20
DEGREE DEPARTURES FROM MID-NOVEMBER AVERAGES) WILL ALSO EXIST FOR
MUCH OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST THROUGH MID-WEEK.
OTTO
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