122
FXUS01 KWBC 140717
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
214 AM EST TUE NOV 14 2023
VALID 12Z TUE NOV 14 2023 - 12Z THU NOV 16 2023
...COOL TEMPERATURES AND BENEFICIAL RAINS TO CONTINUE TO FOCUS
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE GULF COAST STATES THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK...
...VERY HEAVY RAINFALL AND A THREAT OF URBAN FLASH FLOODING WILL
BE A CONCERN FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN FLORIDA ON WEDNESDAY...
...MILD AIR WILL CONTINUE IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND STRETCHING EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS, MIDWEST,
AND OHIO VALLEY THIS WEEK...
A STORM SYSTEM CURRENTLY OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL MOVE
GRADUALLY EAST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND WILL CONTINUE TO
BRING COOL TEMPERATURES AND A THREAT OF MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN TO PORTIONS OF THE GULF COAST. MANY AREAS OF THE GULF COAST
REGION ARE IN A DROUGHT, AND SO ANY RAINFALL HERE WILL BE VERY
BENEFICIAL IN NATURE. HOWEVER, BY LATER WEDNESDAY, THIS STORM
SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO ALONG WITH A
FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT WILL BE DRAPED NEAR SOUTHERN FLORIDA. STRONG
ENERGY ALOFT HELPING TO DRIVE THIS STORM SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED LOW
PRESSURE EASTWARD WILL COMBINE WITH THE FRONT AND TROPICAL
MOISTURE POOLING ALONG IT FOR AREAS OF VERY HEAVY RAINFALL
POTENTIAL. THIS WILL ESPECIALLY BE THE CASE FOR SOUTHERN FLORIDA
AND POTENTIALLY THE HIGHLY URBANIZED I-95 CORRIDOR FROM WEST PALM
BEACH AND FORT LAUDERDALE DOWN THROUGH MIAMI. LOCALLY SEVERAL
INCHES OF RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THESE AREAS, AND THERE WILL
BE A NOTABLE CONCERN FOR URBAN FLASH FLOODING SHOULD THESE RAINS
MATERIALIZE. THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A SLIGHT
RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AT THIS TIME TO ADDRESS THESE CONCERNS.
MEANWHILE, A FRONT WILL REMAIN GENERALLY STALLED OUT GOING THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN
AND ADJACENT AREAS OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WHICH COUPLED WITH THE
ARRIVAL OF A COUPLE OF WEAK WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE AND PACIFIC
MOISTURE SHOULD BRING A THREAT OF SHOWER ACTIVITY. THE HEAVIEST
PRECIPITATION SHOULD GENERALLY BE ON WEDNESDAY AND FOCUSED OVER
THE BITTERROOTS WHERE HEAVY SNOWFALL CAN BE EXPECTED. SOME OF THE
HIGHER PEAKS ARE EXPECTED TO RECEIVE AS MUCH AS 6 TO 12 INCHES OF
SNOW BEFORE A NEW COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION BY THURSDAY
FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER CONDITIONS.
UNSETTLED WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED TO IMPACT CALIFORNIA OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS AS A STORM SYSTEM OFF THE WEST COAST CONTINUES TO
MEANDER AND MOVES ONLY VERY SLOWLY EASTWARD THROUGH THE MIDDLE TO
LATTER PART OF THE WEEK. PACIFIC MOISTURE THOUGH WILL BE STREAMING
INLAND AND THERE WILL BE AREAS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN, AND
ESPECIALLY FOR THE COASTAL RANGES. SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATING
SNOWFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SIERRA
NEVADA.
THE REMAINDER OF THE COUNTRY GOING THROUGH THE MIDDLE TO LATTER
PART OF THE WEEK WILL BE GENERALLY DRY AND VERY MILD GIVEN THE
LACK OF ANY COLD AIR PUSH SOUTHWARD FROM CANADA. TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST, PLAINS, MIDWEST, AND OHIO VALLEY
WILL BE WARMING TO AS MUCH AS 15 TO 25 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF THE YEAR.
ORRISON
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