438
FXUS01 KWBC 141927
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
226 PM EST TUE NOV 14 2023
VALID 00Z WED NOV 15 2023 - 00Z FRI NOV 17 2023
...HEAVY RAINFALL AND LOCALLY SIGNIFICANT URBAN FLASH FLOODING
THREAT WILL BE A CONCERN FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN FLORIDA ON
WEDNESDAY...
...UNSETTLED WEATHER REMAINS IN THE FORECAST ACROSS MUCH OF
CALIFORNIA, WITH HEAVY SNOW CHANCES THROUGHOUT THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES INTO THE MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK...
...DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS CONTINUE IN THE CENTRAL U.S. BEFORE
EXPANDING EASTWARD ON THURSDAY...
A QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM THE FLORIDA KEYS TO THE
CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO AND DEVELOPING WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG
IT WILL PRODUCE A FEW AREAS OF POTENTIALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ALONG
THE CENTRAL GULF COAST AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. THROUGH TONIGHT, LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE OVER
SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA NORTH OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. A FEW INCHES
OF RAINFALL COULD LEAD TO ISOLATED FLOODING IN LOW-LYING AREAS.
EASTERLY FLOW INTO SOUTHEAST FLORIDA COULD ALSO CREATE AN ISOLATED
URBAN FLASH FLOOD RISK TONIGHT. A GREATER RISK OF SIGNIFICANT
FLASH FLOODING EXISTS ON WEDNESDAY OVER SOUTHERN FLORIDA AS A
SEPARATE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS AND THE LINGERING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY INCHES CLOSER TO THE GOLD COAST. A BROAD AREA OF MODERATE
TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED TO HAVE EMBEDDED AREAS OF
INTENSE RAINFALL RATES THAT MAY LAST FOR A FEW CONSECUTIVE HOURS
OVER SIMILAR REGIONS. THE URBAN CORRIDOR LOCATED ACROSS THIS
REGION WILL BE MOST AT RISK TO FLASH FLOODING DUE TO SEVERAL
INCHES OF RAINFALL OCCURRING DURING A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME.
NUMEROUS FLASH FLOODS ARE POSSIBLE INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. RESIDENTS
ARE ADVISED TO REMAIN WEATHER AWARE, HAVE MULTIPLE WAYS TO RECEIVE
WARNINGS, AND PLAN AHEAD. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD GRADUALLY LIFT
NORTHWARD ALONG THE FLORIDA ATLANTIC COASTLINE ON THURSDAY AND
SHIFT A SCATTERED HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT NORTHWARD.
THE OTHER AREA OF UNSETTLED AND WET WEATHER IS FORECAST ACROSS
CALIFORNIA, THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST, AND NORTHERN ROCKIES THROUGH
THURSDAY. A DEEP CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW LINGERING OFF CALIFORNIA
WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR WAVES OF SHOWERS UNTIL A STRONGER SURGE OF
MOISTURE MOVES INLAND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND PUSHES TOWARDS THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES ON THURSDAY. FOR THE MOST PART, ANY RAIN IS
EXPECTED TO BE BENEFICIAL, WITH SNOW INTO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
ONE LOCATION THAT COULD SEE POTENTIALLY HEAVY SNOW IS THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES, MORE SPECIFICALLY NORTHWEST MONTANA, AS A DEVELOPING AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY PROVIDE MECHANISMS FOR
LOCALLY HEAVY MOUNTAIN SNOW. SNOWFALL PROBABILITIES FOR GREATER
THAN 8 INCHES ARE HIGH (>70%) ACROSS THE GLACIER NATIONAL PARK
REGION. THE SYSTEM RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED TO
PUSH A COLD FRONT EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER
MIDWEST ON THURSDAY.
DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CONUS AS
HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHES FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC TO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ALONG THE EAST COAST UNTIL
THURSDAY, WHEN ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES SLIDE EASTWARD. FOR THE
MOST PART, HIGHS IN THE CENTRAL U.S. WILL RUN 10 TO 20 DEGREES
ABOVE AVERAGE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS, TOPPING OUT INTO THE 60S AND
LOW 70S DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. A COMBINATION OF DRY
VEGETATION, BUILDING DROUGHT CONDITIONS, LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY,
AND LIGHT WIND COULD CREATE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY TO THE MID-ATLANTIC.
SNELL
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