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FXUS06 KWBC 142002
PMDMRD
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD
300 PM EST TUE NOVEMBER 14 2023
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR NOV 20 - 24 2023
TODAY'S MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE PREDICTED AMPLIFIED
500-HPA CIRCULATION PATTERN ACROSS NORTH AMERICA AND SURROUNDING REGIONS DURING
THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD. THE MANUAL 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND IS BASED PRIMARILY ON THE
ENSEMBLE MEANS FROM THE GFS, ECMWF, AND CANADIAN MODEL ENSEMBLES DUE TO RECENT
MODEL SKILL. THE RESULTANT MANUAL BLEND FEATURES AN AMPLIFIED RIDGE AND
ASSOCIATED POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES OVER THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS AND
MAINLAND ALASKA PROGRESSING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE WESTERN CONTIGUOUS U.S.
(CONUS) DURING THE PERIOD. A TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED NEGATIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT
ANOMALIES IS FORECAST OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS. ABOVE-NORMAL 500-HPA
HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST OVER HAWAII.
ENHANCED CHANCES FOR ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED OVER MUCH OF THE
WESTERN CONUS, AND PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS, ASSOCIATED WITH MID-LEVEL
RIDGING AND ABOVE-AVERAGE 500-HPA HEIGHTS. THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES FOR
ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES (IN EXCESS OF 50 PERCENT) ARE INDICATED OVER CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. CONVERSELY, A TILT TOWARD NEAR- TO BELOW-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES IS INDICATED ACROSS MOST OF THE SOUTH-CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS
(EXCEPT FOR THE FLORIDA PENINSULA, WHERE ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED)
NEAR AND BEHIND THE STRONG MID-LEVEL TROUGH. CHANCES FOR ABOVE-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE INCREASED FOR WESTERN AND NORTHERN ALASKA, DUE TO
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW UNDER THE AMPLIFYING RIDGE, WHILE BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ARE FAVORED FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA, SUPPORTED BY MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL
TEMPERATURE FORECAST TOOLS. BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY OVER KAUAI,
WHILE ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED OVER OAHU, MAUI AND THE BIG
ISLANDS, CONSISTENT WITH THE GEFS AND ECMWF TEMPERATURE REFORECAST
CONSOLIDATION TOOLS.
NEAR- TO BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED OVER MUCH OF THE WESTERN CONUS,
UNDER A PREDICTED RIDGE AND ABOVE-NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES. A TROUGH
PREDICTED ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS ENHANCES THE LIKELIHOOD OF WET
WEATHER OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS. CHANCES FOR BELOW-NORMAL
PRECIPITATION ARE INCREASED FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ALASKA, UNDER THE
AMPLIFYING RIDGE. ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY OVER SOUTHERN ALASKA,
CONSISTENT WITH THE GEFS AND ECMWF PRECIPITATION REFORECAST CONSOLIDATION
TOOLS. NEAR-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS, AS
INDICATED BY THE OPERATIONAL AUTOBLEND PRECIPITATION TOOL.
THE OFFICIAL 6-10 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF 30% OF TODAY'S GFS
SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 40% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 8, AND 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY
8
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: ABOVE NORMAL, 4 OUT OF 5,DUE TO
GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT ON A PERSISTENT 500-HPA FLOW PATTERN ACROSS NORTH AMERICA.
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR NOV 22 - 28 2023
ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD PREDICT A FAIRLY PERSISTENT
500-HPA CIRCULATION PATTERN ACROSS NORTH AMERICA AND SURROUNDING REGIONS. AN
AMPLIFIED RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES CONTINUE TO BE
FORECAST OVER ALASKA EXTENDING SOUTHEASTWARD TO THE WESTERN CONUS. A TROUGH
WITH A DECREASE IN THE AMPLITUDE OF NEGATIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES RELATIVE
TO THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD IS PREDICTED OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. A WEAK MID-LEVEL
RIDGE IS FORECAST OVER THE HAWAII ISLANDS.
ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO BE FAVORED FOR MOST OF THE WESTERN CONUS
FOR WEEK 2, AS A RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES ARE
PREDICTED IN THE MANUAL BLEND HEIGHT FORECAST, WHILE BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ARE LIKELY FOR CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS (EXCEPT FOR THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA
PENINSULA, WHERE ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED), UNDER PREDICTED
TROUGHING AND NEGATIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES. ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST OVER ALASKA DUE TO THE PREDICTED RIDGING AND ABOVE-NORMAL 500-HPA
HEIGHTS, SUPPORTED BY MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL MODEL TEMPERATURE TOOLS.
ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO FAVORED ACROSS THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS IN THE
8-14 DAY PERIOD, FOLLOWING THE TEMPERATURE CONSOLIDATION.
BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST OVER WESTERN AND SOUTHWESTERN CONUS
UNDER A PREDICTED RIDGE AND POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES OVER THE REGION.
BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS ALSO FAVORED OVER THE UPPER AND MIDDLE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, OHIO VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES REGION, WHILE ABOVE-NORMAL
PRECIPITATION IS PREDICTED OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES, THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS, SUPPORTED BY MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL PRECIPITATION
FORECAST TOOLS. ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR THE ATLANTIC AND GULF
COAST REGIONS AHEAD OF A PREDICTED MID-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS.
BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED OVER PARTS OF SOUTHEASTERN MAINLAND
ALASKA AND THE ALASKA PANHANDLE, AND ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY OVER
THE REMAINDER OF ALASKA, CONSISTENT WITH ECMWF CALIBRATED REFORECAST TOOL.
ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS, CONSISTENT WITH
THE PRECIPITATION CONSOLIDATION TOOL.
THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF: 30% OF TODAY'S GFS
SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 40% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 11, AND 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON
DAY 11
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: ABOVE NORMAL, 4 OUT OF 5,DUE TO
GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT ON A PERSISTENT 500-HPA FLOW PATTERN ACROSS NORTH AMERICA.
FORECASTER: LUKE H
NOTES:
AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OCCASIONALLY MANUAL
INTERVENTION IS NECESSARY TO ADDRESS QUALITY CONTROL AND CONSISTENCY ISSUES. IN
THESE CASES, FORECASTS ARE MANUALLY DRAWN BUT A FULL DISCUSSION IS NOT ISSUED.
THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS THE SAME AS
THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW
THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER (ORANGE,
"A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N"). HISTORICAL AVERAGE
VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST (DASHES, "F"). LABELS ON THE
SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).
PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WETTER (GREEN,
"A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N"). HISTORICAL MEDIAN VALUES
FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST (DASHES, "INCHES"). LABELS ON THE
SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).
PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL BE A
GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY EVEN A NORMAL
(I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES
A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO
PRECIPITATION.
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1991-2020 BASE PERIOD MEANS AS REFERENCE IN
THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS.
THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON
NOVEMBER 16.
ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
19901115 - 19941113 - 20091110 - 20031117 - 19961104
ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
19611125 - 19901115 - 19941112 - 20031117 - 19601127
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR NOV 20 - 24 2023
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON A N OREGON A B NRN CALIF A B
SRN CALIF A B IDAHO A B NEVADA A B
W MONTANA A N E MONTANA A A WYOMING A A
UTAH A B ARIZONA N N COLORADO N A
NEW MEXICO B A N DAKOTA N N S DAKOTA N A
NEBRASKA N A KANSAS B A OKLAHOMA B A
N TEXAS B A S TEXAS B A W TEXAS B A
MINNESOTA N N IOWA N A MISSOURI B A
ARKANSAS B A LOUISIANA B A WISCONSIN N N
ILLINOIS B A MISSISSIPPI B A MICHIGAN N A
INDIANA B A OHIO B A KENTUCKY B A
TENNESSEE B A ALABAMA B A NEW YORK B A
VERMONT B A NEW HAMP B A MAINE B A
MASS B A CONN B A RHODE IS B A
PENN B A NEW JERSEY B A W VIRGINIA B A
MARYLAND B A DELAWARE B A VIRGINIA B A
N CAROLINA B A S CAROLINA B A GEORGIA B A
FL PNHDL N A FL PENIN A A AK N SLOPE A N
AK ALEUTIAN A N AK WESTERN A N AK INT BSN A B
AK S INT N N AK SO COAST N N AK PNHDL B N
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR NOV 22 - 28 2023
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON A N OREGON A N NRN CALIF A N
SRN CALIF A N IDAHO A N NEVADA A N
W MONTANA N N E MONTANA B N WYOMING B N
UTAH A N ARIZONA A N COLORADO N N
NEW MEXICO A N N DAKOTA B N S DAKOTA B N
NEBRASKA B N KANSAS B N OKLAHOMA B N
N TEXAS B N S TEXAS B A W TEXAS B N
MINNESOTA B N IOWA B N MISSOURI B N
ARKANSAS B N LOUISIANA B A WISCONSIN B N
ILLINOIS B N MISSISSIPPI B N MICHIGAN B N
INDIANA B N OHIO B N KENTUCKY B N
TENNESSEE B N ALABAMA B A NEW YORK B N
VERMONT B A NEW HAMP B A MAINE B N
MASS B A CONN B A RHODE IS B A
PENN B N NEW JERSEY B A W VIRGINIA B N
MARYLAND B A DELAWARE B A VIRGINIA B A
N CAROLINA B A S CAROLINA B A GEORGIA B A
FL PNHDL B A FL PENIN A A AK N SLOPE A N
AK ALEUTIAN A A AK WESTERN A A AK INT BSN A A
AK S INT A A AK SO COAST A A AK PNHDL A N
LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW B - BELOW
THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.
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