260
FXUS01 KWBC 150743
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
241 AM EST WED NOV 15 2023
VALID 12Z WED NOV 15 2023 - 12Z FRI NOV 17 2023
...HEAVY RAINFALL AND LOCALLY SIGNIFICANT URBAN FLASH FLOODING
WILL BE A MAJOR CONCERN TODAY AND TONIGHT FOR SOUTHEAST FLORIDA...
...LOCALLY HEAVY SNOWFALL EXPECTED TODAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES...
...UNSETTLED WEATHER REMAINS IN THE FORECAST ACROSS MUCH OF
CALIFORNIA...
...DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST, PLAINS, AND MIDWEST WHILE GRADUALLY EXPANDING TOWARD THE
MID-ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...
THE BIGGEST STORY FOR NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WILL BE THE SLOW-MOVING
STORM SYSTEM OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WHICH WILL BE GRADUALLY
MOVING EAST WHILE BRINGING GENERALLY COOL TEMPERATURES AND
BENEFICIAL RAINS TO DROUGHT-STRICKEN AREAS OF THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN GULF COAST REGION ALONG WITH PARTS OF THE INTERIOR OF THE
SOUTHEAST. HOWEVER, AS THIS STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA LATER TODAY AND THROUGH TONIGHT, A COMBINATION OF STRONG
ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND THE POOLING OF
TROPICAL MOISTURE ALONG A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT DRAPED NEAR FAR
SOUTHERN FLORIDA, SHOULD SET THE STAGE FOR VERY HEAVY RAINFALL
POTENTIAL. THIS WILL ESPECIALLY BE THE CASE FOR THE HIGHLY
URBANIZED I-95 CORRIDOR OF SOUTHEAST FLORIDA FROM WEST PALM BEACH
AND FORT LAUDERDALE DOWN THROUGH MIAMI AND HOMESTEAD.
CONCENTRATED AREAS OF SLOW-MOVING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED OVER THESE AREAS, AND THIS WILL BE INFLUENCED ALSO BY THE
GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE FLORIDA
STRAITS ALONG THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT. EXTREMELY HEAVY RAINFALL
RATES ARE EXPECTED WHICH MAY APPROACH OR EXCEED 2 TO 3 INCHES PER
HOUR. THE PERSISTENCE OF THESE HIGH RAINFALL RATES TODAY INTO
TONIGHT MAY PRODUCE RAINFALL TOTALS UPWARDS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES WITH
SOME ISOLATED MAX AMOUNTS APPROACHING 10 INCHES BY EARLY THURSDAY.
THIS WILL DRIVE A CONCERN FOR SIGNIFICANT URBAN FLASH FLOODING AS
A RESULT. THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A MODERATE RISK
OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL TO ADDRESS THESE CONCERNS. LOW PRESSURE JUST
OFFSHORE OF THE FLORIDA ATLANTIC COAST ON THURSDAY WILL THEN BEGIN
TO LIFT NORTHWARD AND MAY STILL PRODUCE SOME ADDITIONAL HEAVY
RAINS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA AS ONSHORE FLOW
PERSISTS, BUT THE HEAVIEST OF THE RAINS SHOULD GRADUALLY SHIFT
OFFSHORE WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR ANY ADDITIONAL FLOODING CONCERNS TO
BEGIN TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH.
MEANWHILE, A FRONT CURRENTLY DRAPED OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN
GREAT BASIN AND ADJACENT AREAS OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES COUPLED
WITH A COUPLE OF WEAK WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE AND PACIFIC MOISTURE
SHOULD BRING A THREAT OF SHOWER ACTIVITY TO THESE AREAS INCLUDING
AREAS OF HEAVY SNOW OVER THE BITTERROOTS TODAY AND INCLUDING
GLACIER NATIONAL PARK. SNOWFALL TOTALS BY EARLY THURSDAY MAY REACH
AS HIGH AS 4 TO 8 INCHES WITH SOME SPOTTY AMOUNTS OVER A FOOT
POSSIBLE FOR THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS. HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER
CONDITIONS WILL ARRIVE ON THURSDAY WHICH WILL BRING THE
PRECIPITATION HERE GRADUALLY TO AN END.
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL AGAIN BE EXPECTED TO IMPACT CALIFORNIA OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS A STORM SYSTEM OFF THE WEST COAST
CONTINUES TO MEANDER AND MOVES ONLY VERY SLOWLY EASTWARD GOING
THROUGH THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK. PACIFIC MOISTURE THOUGH WILL
BE STREAMING INLAND AND THERE WILL BE AREAS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE
RAIN, AND ESPECIALLY FOR THE COASTAL RANGES. SOME LIGHT
ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
THE SIERRA NEVADA.
THE REMAINDER OF THE COUNTRY WILL CONTINUE TO BE GENERALLY DRY AND
VERY MILD GIVEN THE LACK OF ANY COLD AIR PUSHING SOUTH FROM
CANADA. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST, PLAINS,
MIDWEST, AND OHIO VALLEY WILL BE AS MUCH AS 15 TO 25 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. THIS MILD AIR WILL BE REACHING
THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST BY LATER IN THE WEEK.
ORRISON
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