992
FXUS01 KWBC 152001
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
301 PM EST WED NOV 15 2023
VALID 00Z THU NOV 16 2023 - 00Z SAT NOV 18 2023
...HEAVY RAINFALL AND SIGNIFICANT URBAN FLASH FLOODING WILL BE A
MAJOR CONCERN TONIGHT FOR SOUTHEAST FLORIDA...
...LOCALLY HEAVY SNOWFALL EXPECTED TONIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES...
...UNSETTLED WEATHER REMAINS IN THE FORECAST ACROSS MUCH OF
CALIFORNIA...
...DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST, PLAINS, AND MIDWEST WHILE GRADUALLY EXPANDING TOWARD THE
MID-ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...
HEAVY RAINFALL AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PICK UP OVER SOUTHEAST
FLORIDA TONIGHT ALONG A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT. AN AREA OF SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE STATIONARY FRONT JUST SOUTH OF
THE MIAMI METRO AREA, WHICH WOULD ENHANCE ANY CONVECTION THAT
INITIATES. THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT BETWEEN 7PM
AND 1AM. THIS IS WHEN RAINFALL RATES BETWEEN 2-3"/HR ARE EXPECTED
AND THE GREATEST FLASH FLOOD THREAT IS LIKELY. A MODERATE RISK (AT
LEAST 40% CHANCE) OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL LEADING TO FLASH FLOODING
IS IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA COAST FROM KEY
LARGO UP TO WEST PALM BEACH. HIGH RAINFALL RATES OVER THIS
URBANIZED CORRIDOR WILL POTENTIALLY MAKE THIS A HIGHLY IMPACTFUL
AND ESPECIALLY DANGEROUS FLASH FLOOD SITUATION. THERE IS A HIGH
(80-90%) CHANCE OF 5" TOTALS AND A MODERATE TO HIGH (50-80%)
CHANCE OF 8" TOTALS WITH POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED TOTALS NEARING
10" BY THURSDAY MORNING. IF ROADS LOOK FLOODED THEN "TURN AROUND,
DON'T DROWN!" HEAVY RAINFALL SHOULD BEGIN TO SUBSIDE BY DAY-BREAK
THURSDAY MORNING.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWINGING THROUGH CANADA AND THE
NORTHERN/CENTRAL ROCKIES WILL PRODUCE HEAVY MOUNTAIN SNOW AND SOME
LOWER ELEVATION RAIN SHOWERS TO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TONIGHT
BEFORE SPREADING SNOWFALL INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES ON THURSDAY. A
DEEP UPPER LEVEL LOW STATIONED OFF THE COAST OF CALIFORNIA WILL
CONTINUE TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND SNOW
FOR THE SIERRA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
KEBEDE
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