471
FXUS06 KWBC 152003
PMDMRD
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD
300 PM EST WED NOVEMBER 15 2023
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR NOV 21 - 25 2023
TODAY'S MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE PREDICTED AMPLIFIED
500-HPA CIRCULATION PATTERN ACROSS NORTH AMERICA AND SURROUNDING REGIONS DURING
THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD. THE MANUAL 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND IS BASED PRIMARILY ON THE
ENSEMBLE MEANS FROM THE GFS, ECMWF, AND CANADIAN MODEL ENSEMBLES DUE TO RECENT
MODEL SKILL. THE RESULTANT MANUAL BLEND FEATURES A TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN
BERING SEA. AN AMPLIFIED RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES
ARE PREDICTED OVER ALASKA PROGRESSING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE WESTERN
CONTIGUOUS U.S. (CONUS) DURING THE PERIOD. ANOTHER DEEP TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
NEGATIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES IS FORECAST OVER THE EASTERN CONUS.
ENHANCED CHANCES FOR ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED OVER MUCH OF THE
WESTERN CONUS, ASSOCIATED WITH MID-LEVEL RIDGING AND ABOVE-AVERAGE 500-HPA
HEIGHTS. THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES (IN EXCESS OF
60 PERCENT) ARE INDICATED OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. CONVERSELY, A
TILT TOWARD BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS INDICATED ACROSS MOST OF THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN CONUS NEAR AND BEHIND THE STRONG MID-LEVEL TROUGH. CHANCES FOR
ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE INCREASED FOR ALASKA, DUE TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
UNDER THE AMPLIFYING RIDGE. ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED OVER OAHU,
MAUI, AND THE BIG ISLAND OF HAWAII, CONSISTENT WITH THE GEFS AND ECMWF
TEMPERATURE REFORECAST CONSOLIDATION TOOLS.
NEAR- TO BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY OVER MUCH OF THE WESTERN AND
CENTRAL CONUS (EXCEPT FOR PARTS OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES, THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS, WHERE ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED)
UNDER A PREDICTED RIDGE AND ABOVE-NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES. A TROUGH
PREDICTED ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS ENHANCES THE LIKELIHOOD OF WET WEATHER OVER
MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS. CHANCES FOR BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION ARE INCREASED
FOR CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ALASKA, UNDER THE AMPLIFYING RIDGE. ABOVE-NORMAL
PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED OVER SOUTHERN ALASKA, CONSISTENT WITH THE GEFS AND
ECMWF PRECIPITATION REFORECAST CONSOLIDATION TOOLS. ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION
IS SLIGHTLY FAVORED OVER THE NORTHWESTERN HAWAII ISLANDS, WHILE NEAR-NORMAL
PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS, AS INDICATED BY
THE OPERATIONAL AUTOBLEND PRECIPITATION TOOL.
THE OFFICIAL 6-10 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF 30% OF TODAY'S GFS
SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 40% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 8, AND 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY
8
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: ABOVE NORMAL, 4 OUT OF 5,DUE TO
GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT ON A PERSISTENT 500-HPA FLOW PATTERN ACROSS NORTH AMERICA.
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR NOV 23 - 29 2023
ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD PREDICT A FAIRLY PERSISTENT
500-HPA CIRCULATION PATTERN ACROSS NORTH AMERICA AND SURROUNDING REGIONS. AN
AMPLIFIED RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES CONTINUE TO BE
FORECAST OVER ALASKA EXTENDING SOUTHEASTWARD TO THE WESTERN CONUS. A TROUGH
WITH A DECREASE IN THE AMPLITUDE OF NEGATIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES RELATIVE
TO THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD IS PREDICTED OVER THE EASTERN CONUS.
ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO BE FAVORED FOR MOST OF THE WESTERN CONUS
FOR WEEK 2, AS A RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES ARE
PREDICTED IN THE MANUAL BLEND HEIGHT FORECAST, WHILE BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ARE LIKELY FOR CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS, UNDER PREDICTED TROUGHING AND
NEGATIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES. ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY OVER
ALASKA DUE TO THE PREDICTED RIDGING AND ABOVE-NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS, SUPPORTED
BY MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL MODEL TEMPERATURE TOOLS. ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
ALSO FAVORED ACROSS THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS IN THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD, FOLLOWING THE
TEMPERATURE CONSOLIDATION.
BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS SLIGHTLY FAVORED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS
UNDER A PREDICTED RIDGE AND POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES OVER THE REGION.
BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS ALSO SLIGHTLY FAVORED OVER THE NORTHEASTERN
CONUS, WHILE ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE SLIGHTLY ENHANCED OVER
PARTS OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES AND THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS, SUPPORTED BY MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL PRECIPITATION FORECAST TOOLS.
ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR THE SOUTHERN ATLANTIC AND GULF COAST
REGIONS NEAR AND AHEAD OF A PREDICTED MID-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS.
BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED OVER PARTS OF NORTHEASTERN MAINLAND
ALASKA, AND ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED OVER THE REMAINDER OF ALASKA
AND THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS, CONSISTENT WITH THE PRECIPITATION CONSOLIDATION TOOL.
THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF: 30% OF TODAY'S GFS
SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 40% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 11, AND 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON
DAY 11
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: ABOVE NORMAL, 4 OUT OF 5,DUE TO
GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT ON A PERSISTENT 500-HPA FLOW PATTERN ACROSS NORTH AMERICA.
FORECASTER: LUKE H
NOTES:
AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OCCASIONALLY MANUAL
INTERVENTION IS NECESSARY TO ADDRESS QUALITY CONTROL AND CONSISTENCY ISSUES. IN
THESE CASES, FORECASTS ARE MANUALLY DRAWN BUT A FULL DISCUSSION IS NOT ISSUED.
THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS THE SAME AS
THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW
THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER (ORANGE,
"A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N"). HISTORICAL AVERAGE
VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST (DASHES, "F"). LABELS ON THE
SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).
PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WETTER (GREEN,
"A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N"). HISTORICAL MEDIAN VALUES
FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST (DASHES, "INCHES"). LABELS ON THE
SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).
PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL BE A
GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY EVEN A NORMAL
(I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES
A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO
PRECIPITATION.
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1991-2020 BASE PERIOD MEANS AS REFERENCE IN
THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS.
THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON
NOVEMBER 16.
ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
19901116 - 19941113 - 20031117 - 20091110 - 19611124
ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
19901116 - 19611125 - 19941112 - 20031117 - 19651118
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR NOV 21 - 25 2023
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON A B OREGON A B NRN CALIF A B
SRN CALIF A B IDAHO A B NEVADA A B
W MONTANA A N E MONTANA B A WYOMING A A
UTAH A B ARIZONA A B COLORADO N N
NEW MEXICO N B N DAKOTA B N S DAKOTA B N
NEBRASKA B N KANSAS B B OKLAHOMA B B
N TEXAS B B S TEXAS B N W TEXAS B B
MINNESOTA B N IOWA B N MISSOURI B N
ARKANSAS B B LOUISIANA B N WISCONSIN B N
ILLINOIS B N MISSISSIPPI B N MICHIGAN B A
INDIANA B N OHIO B A KENTUCKY B N
TENNESSEE B N ALABAMA B A NEW YORK B A
VERMONT B A NEW HAMP B A MAINE B A
MASS B A CONN B A RHODE IS B A
PENN B A NEW JERSEY B A W VIRGINIA B A
MARYLAND B A DELAWARE B A VIRGINIA B A
N CAROLINA B A S CAROLINA B A GEORGIA B A
FL PNHDL B A FL PENIN B A AK N SLOPE A B
AK ALEUTIAN A N AK WESTERN A N AK INT BSN A B
AK S INT A N AK SO COAST A N AK PNHDL N N
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR NOV 23 - 29 2023
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON A N OREGON A N NRN CALIF A N
SRN CALIF A N IDAHO A N NEVADA A N
W MONTANA N N E MONTANA B N WYOMING N N
UTAH A N ARIZONA A N COLORADO N N
NEW MEXICO A N N DAKOTA B N S DAKOTA B N
NEBRASKA B N KANSAS B N OKLAHOMA B N
N TEXAS B N S TEXAS B A W TEXAS B N
MINNESOTA B N IOWA B N MISSOURI B N
ARKANSAS B N LOUISIANA B N WISCONSIN B N
ILLINOIS B N MISSISSIPPI B N MICHIGAN B N
INDIANA B N OHIO B N KENTUCKY B N
TENNESSEE B N ALABAMA B N NEW YORK B N
VERMONT B N NEW HAMP B N MAINE B N
MASS B N CONN B N RHODE IS B N
PENN B N NEW JERSEY B N W VIRGINIA B N
MARYLAND B N DELAWARE B N VIRGINIA B N
N CAROLINA B N S CAROLINA B N GEORGIA B N
FL PNHDL B A FL PENIN B A AK N SLOPE A N
AK ALEUTIAN A N AK WESTERN A A AK INT BSN A A
AK S INT A A AK SO COAST A A AK PNHDL A N
LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW B - BELOW
THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.
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