316
FXUS01 KWBC 181949
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
248 PM EST SAT NOV 18 2023
VALID 00Z SUN NOV 19 2023 - 00Z TUE NOV 21 2023
...UNSETTLED WEATHER EXPANDS ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S. WITH STRONG
WINDS, HIGH-ELEVATION SNOWS, AND COASTAL/LOWER ELEVATION RAINS...
...STORM SYSTEM FORMING OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS WILL BRING AN
EXPANDING AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL
U.S....
...ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES FOR THE SOUTH AND THE NORTHERN
PLAINS WHILE CONDITIONS REMAIN COOL FOR THE WEST...
A DIGGING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND FRONTAL SYSTEM PUSHING INTO THE
WEST WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD UNSETTLED WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION,
INCLUDING COASTAL/LOWER ELEVATION RAINS, HIGH ELEVATION SNOW, AND
WINDY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AREAS ALONG THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST/NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST WILL SEE THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY, WITH SOME THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE. PRECIPIATION WILL SPREAD FURTHER INLAND ACROSS THE GREAT
BASIN LATER SATURDAY AND INTO THE ROCKIES BY SUNDAY, WITH MOSTLY
RAIN FOR LOWER ELEVATION/VALLEY LOCATIONS, THOUGH SOME SNOW MAY
MIX WITH LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED. WINTER-WEATHER
RELATED ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE
CASCADES, SIERRA, AND WASATCH WHERE SOME HEAVIER SNOW TOTALS
BETWEEN 6-12", LOCALLY HIGHER, ARE FORECAST. PRECIPITATION CHANCES
WILL TAPER OFF BY LATE SUNDAY FOR MOST OF THE WEST BUT LIKELY
LINGER INTO MONDAY FOR THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ROCKIES. IN ADDITION
TO PRECIPITATION, SOME STRONG, GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED, WITH
WIND-RELATED ADVISORIES IN PLACE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE GREAT
BASIN AND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA.
ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM LOOKS TO ORGANIZE SUNDAY OVER THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS AS THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE
WEST CONTINUES TO DIG/PUSH EASTWARD AND ENCOURAGES LEE
CYCLOGENESIS EAST OF THE ROCKIES. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
SHOULD BEGIN TO EXPAND AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM OVER THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS THROUGHOUT THE DAY SUNDAY AND INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS, EVENTUALLY SPREADING INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
MONDAY. AN INFLUX OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND STRENGTHENING SHEAR
WITH THE APPROACHING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MAY LEAD TO SOME SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY IN THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, WITH THE
STORM PREDICTION CENTER HIGHLIGHTING THE REGION IN A SLIGHT RISK
OF SEVERE WEATHER (LEVEL 2/5). DAMAGING WINDS AND A FEW TORNADOES
ARE EXPECTED TO BE THE PRIMARY THREATS. IN ADDITION, SOME LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE WITH AN ISOLATED CHANCE OF FLASH
FLOODING, THOUGH THIS THREAT WILL LIKELY BECOME MORE PROMINENT
INTO MONDAY EVENING AND TUESDAY, JUST BEYOND THE CURRENT FORECAST
PERIOD.
ELSEWHERE, THE EAST COAST WILL BE MOSTLY DRY FOLLOWING A FRONTAL
PASSAGE EARLY SATURDAY, THOUGH SOME LINGERING LIGHT RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT SATURDAY/EARLY SUNDAY FOR PORTIONS
OF THE INTERIOR NORTHEAST/NEW ENGLAND. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
GENERALLY SEASONABLE SUNDAY BUT COOL AND BIT BELOW AVERAGE FOR NEW
ENGLAND ON MONDAY, WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S AND LOW 40S. HIGHS WILL
BE RUNNING ABOVE AVERAGE SUNDAY AND MONDAY ACROSS THE SOUTH, WITH
60S AND 70S, AS WELL AS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS, WITH HIGHS IN
THE 40S AND 50S. CONDITIONS WILL BE BELOW AVERAGE ACROSS MUCH OF
THE WEST UNDER THE UPPER-TROUGH, WITH MAINLY 40S FOR THE INTERIOR
NORTHWEST/GREAT BASIN AND 60S AND 70S IN THE DESERT SOUTHWEST.
HIGHS ALONG THE COAST WILL BE CLOSER TO SEASONABLE WITH MOSTLY 50S
AND 60S, AND 70S FOR SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA.
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