203
FXUS01 KWBC 191952
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
248 PM EST SUN NOV 19 2023
VALID 00Z MON NOV 20 2023 - 00Z WED NOV 22 2023
...HIGH-ELEVATION SNOWS AND LOWER ELEVATION RAIN CONTINUE FOR THE
INTERIOR WEST SUNDAY EVENING, WITH SOME GUSTY WINDS FOR THE GREAT
BASIN AND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...
...ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER FOR THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY MONDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BRINGS AN EXPANDING AREA OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE CENTRAL/EASTERN U.S....
...BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES COMING TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS/TEXAS
AS TEMPERATURES MODERATE IN THE WEST....
A VIGOROUS UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY PASSING OVER THE WESTERN
U.S. WILL SEND A WAVE OF INCLEMENT WEATHER RAPIDLY FROM WEST TO
EAST ACROSS THE COUNTRY THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. WHILE
PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF ALONG THE WEST COAST THROUGH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON, LOWER ELEVATION/VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW WILL
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT SUNDAY AND INTO EARLY MONDAY FOR PORTIONS OF
THE GREAT BASIN AND ROCKIES AS A SURFACE FRONTAL SYSTEM PUSHES
THROUGH THE REGION. WINTER-WEATHER RELATED ADVISORIES REMAIN IN
EFFECT FOR SOME OF THE REGIONAL MOUNTAIN RANGES IN THE FOUR
CORNERS INCLUDING THE WASATCH, UINTAS, AND SAN JUANS WHERE SOME
MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW COULD RESULT IN TOTALS OF 6-12". SOME SNOW
MAY ALSO MIX IN AT LOWER ELEVATIONS AS TEMPERATURES COOL SUNDAY
NIGHT, BUT LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED. IN ADDITION,
WIND-RELATED ADVISORIES REMAIN IN PLACE FOR PORTIONS OF THE GREAT
BASIN AND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WHERE SOME STRONG, GUSTY WINDS MAY
LINGER INTO THE DAY MONDAY.
MEANWHILE, AS THE TROUGH SHIFTS EASTWARD, A LEE CYCLONE WILL
CONTINUE TO DEEPEN OVER THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS THIS EVENING,
WITH RETURNING MOISTURE AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM LEADING TO INCREASING
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY BECOME
SEVERE OVERNIGHT SUNDAY FOR OKLAHOMA WITH LARGE HAIL POSSIBLE.
HOWEVER, THE HIGHER THREAT WILL BE ON MONDAY AS THE SYSTEM
CONTINUES EASTWARD TOWARDS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, WHERE THE
STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS INTRODUCED AN ENHANCED RISK (LEVEL
3/5) OF SEVERE WEATHER. INCREASINGLY MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW AS WELL
AS BOTH STRONG LOW-LEVEL AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR AS THE UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH APPROACHES MAY LEAD TO SEVERAL INSTANCES OF DAMAGING WINDS,
LARGE HAIL, AND TORNADOES, INCLUDING THE RISK OF A STRONG TORNADO
OR TWO. WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BROADLY
EXPAND IN COVERAGE FROM THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY MONDAY INTO THE
MIDWEST, OHIO VALLEY, AND TENNESSEE VALLEY BY TUESDAY AS THE
SYSTEM CONTINUES EASTWARD. SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND ISOLATED
FLASH FLOODING WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.
HIGH TEMPERATURES MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE
FROM NEW ENGLAND SOUTH INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC FOLLOWING A FRONTAL
PASSAGE, WITH 30S AND 40S FOR NEW ENGLAND AND 50S INTO THE
MID-ATLANTIC. IN THE SOUTH, CONDITIONS WILL BE UNSEASONABLY WARM
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM, WITH 70S AND EVEN SOME
80S ALONG THE GULF COAST. THE DIGGING TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL U.S.
WILL BRING COOLER AND BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES SOUTH INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS AND TEXAS BY TUESDAY, WITH WIDESPREAD 50S
EXPECTED. HIGHS WILL BE MORE SEASONABLY COOL FURTHER NORTH ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES WITH MAINLY 40S FORECAST.
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE IN THE WEST AFTER A COOLER WEEKEND,
WITH 40S AND 50S FOR THE GREAT BASIN/ROCKIES, 50S AND 60S FOR THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA, AND 70S FOR SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA AND THE DESERT SOUTHWEST.
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