919
FXUS01 KWBC 201844
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
143 PM EST MON NOV 20 2023
VALID 00Z TUE NOV 21 2023 - 00Z THU NOV 23 2023
...ACTIVE WEATHER FOR THE PRE-THANKSGIVING DAY TRAVEL PERIOD FOR
MUCH OF THE U.S. TO THE EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER, WHILE QUIET
WEATHER DOMINATES WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO THE WEST
COAST...
...SEVERE WEATHER THREAT TO CONTINUE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/CENTRAL GULF COASTAL REGIONS...
...WIDESPREAD HEAVY PRECIPIATION LIKELY EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI
OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS...
...A PERIOD OF WINTRY WEATHER POSSIBLE FROM THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS INTO PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST AND NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND...
A DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS LATE
MONDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE PUSHING EAST NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT
TWO DAYS, PRODUCING POTENTIAL HIGH IMPACTS DURING THE UPCOMING
BUSY PRE-THANKSGIVING DAY TRAVEL PERIOD FOR LARGE PORTIONS OF THE
COUNTRY FROM THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER EASTWARD. PRECIPITATION
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS STORM IS ALREADY FAIRLY WELL DEFINED LATE
THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN PLAINS
TOWARD THE MIDDLE TO LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS PRECIPITATION
AREA WILL REMAIN WELL DEFINED TONIGHT WITH INCREASING THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/CENTRAL GULF COASTAL
REGION TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. ALONG WITH THE HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL,
SEVERE WEATHER IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THESE AREAS WITH HIGH WINDS,
HAIL AND TORNADOES POSSIBLE. TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA OF SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT, WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINS ARE LIKELY TO
THE EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER, ACROSS THE TENNESSEE AND OHIO
VALLEYS, APPALACHIANS, SOUTHEAST, MID ATLANTIC AND INTO THE
NORTHEAST. NEARLY ALL OF THESE REGIONS HAVE HAD MUCH BELOW
AVERAGE PRECIPITATION OVER THE PAST SEVERAL WEEKS, WITH AREAS FROM
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY IN SEVERE
TO EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT CONDITIONS. GIVEN THESE RECENT DRY
CONDITIONS, STREAM FLOWS AND SOIL MOISTURE ARE BELOW AVERAGE,
WHICH SHOULD DECREASE THE THREAT OF FLASH FLOODS. HOWEVER,
ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING STILL POSSIBLE GIVEN THE HEAVY RAINFALL
THREAT, ESPECIALLY ACROSS URBAN AREAS.
NEARLY ALL OF THE PRECIPITATION TO THE EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER WITH THIS DEVELOPING STORM WILL BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN. THE
EXCEPTIONS TO THIS WILL BE FROM THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS INTO
PORTIONS OF THE INTERIOR NORTHEAST WHERE A PERIOD OF SLEET AND
FREEZING RAIN IS POSSIBLE AT THE ONSET OF THE PRECIPITATION
TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE CHANGING OVER TO RAIN. A PERIOD OF
ACCUMULATING SNOWS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK
STATE INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
BEFORE THIS PRECIPITATION ALSO CHANGES OVER TO RAIN.
MUCH MORE TRANQUIL WEATHER EXPECTED ACROSS MOST REGIONS TO THE
WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO THE WEST COAST OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. MUCH OF THIS REGION WILL BE DRY, SAVE FOR THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST WHERE A SLOW MOVING FRONT WILL BRING LIGHT TO MODERATE
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS LATE TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. ABOVE
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY FROM THE WEST
COAST, ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE NORTHERN TO CENTRAL PLAINS.
MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
BEGINNING LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THANKSGIVING AS A STRONG COLD FRONT
PUSHES SOUTHWARD OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA.
ORAVEC
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