065
FXUS06 KWBC 232002
PMDMRD
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD
300 PM EST THU NOVEMBER 23 2023
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR NOV 29 - DEC 03, 2023
TODAY'S MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE PREDICTED AMPLIFIED
500-HPA CIRCULATION PATTERN ACROSS NORTH AMERICA AND SURROUNDING REGIONS DURING
THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD. THE MANUAL 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND IS BASED PRIMARILY ON THE
ENSEMBLE MEANS FROM THE GFS, ECMWF, AND CANADIAN MODELS DUE TO RECENT MODEL
SKILL. THE RESULTANT MANUAL BLEND FEATURES A DEEP TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
NEGATIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES PREDICTED ACROSS THE WESTERN CONTIGUOUS U.S.
(CONUS) DURING THE PERIOD. ANOTHER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED BELOW-NORMAL 500-HPA
HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS. BELOW-NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS
ARE ALSO FORECAST ACROSS MAINLAND ALASKA AND THE ALEUTIANS AS TROUGHING
INCREASES ACROSS THE BERING SEA. TROUGHING FORECAST EARLY IN THE PERIOD NEAR
HAWAII IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN, RESULTING IN NEAR- TO SLIGHTLY BELOW-NORMAL
HEIGHTS.
ENHANCED CHANCES FOR BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED OVER MUCH OF THE
WESTERN CONUS, ASSOCIATED WITH MID-LEVEL TROUGHING AND BELOW-AVERAGE 500-HPA
HEIGHTS. CONVERSELY, A TILT TOWARD ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS FORECAST FOR
PARTS OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS, THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, AND
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN TEXAS, SUPPORTED BY MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL TEMPERATURE
FORECAST TOOLS. BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO FAVORED OVER THE EASTERN
CONUS (EXCEPT FOR SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA, WHERE ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ARE FAVORED) UNDER A MID-LEVEL TROUGH AND BELOW-NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS. CHANCES
FOR ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE INCREASED FOR ALASKA, DUE TO PREDICTED
TROUGHING AND SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO FAVORED
OVER KAUAI, OAHU, MAUI, AND THE BIG ISLAND OF HAWAII, CONSISTENT WITH THE GEFS
AND ECMWF TEMPERATURE REFORECAST CONSOLIDATION TOOLS.
ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY OVER MUCH OF THE WESTERN CONUS UNDER A
PREDICTED TROUGH. ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS ALSO FAVORED OVER THE SOUTHERN
TIER OF THE CONUS, WHILE BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS MORE LIKELY OVER PARTS
OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES, THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS, THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, AND THE NORTHEAST, SUPPORTED BY MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL
PRECIPITATION FORECAST TOOLS. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING SOUTHERLY
FLOW ACROSS ALASKA RESULTING IN ELEVATED PROBABILITIES OF NEAR- TO ABOVE-NORMAL
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE STATE. A SLIGHT TILT TOWARDS ELEVATED ABOVE-NORMAL
PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES IS INDICATED FOR THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS, CONSISTENT
WITH THE GEFS AND ECMWF PRECIPITATION REFORECAST CONSOLIDATION TOOLS.
THE OFFICIAL 6-10 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF 30% OF TODAY'S GFS
SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 40% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 8, AND 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY
8
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: AVERAGE, 3 OUT OF 5, DUE TO GOOD
AGREEMENT AMONG MODEL SOLUTIONS, OFFSET BY FAIR AGREEMENT ON THE FORECAST
TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TOOLS.
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR DEC 01 - 07 2023
ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD PREDICT A FAIRLY PERSISTENT
500-HPA CIRCULATION PATTERN ACROSS NORTH AMERICA AND SURROUNDING REGIONS. THE
GEFS AND ECMWF ARE NOW IN GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING TROUGHING AND ASSOCIATED
NEGATIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES EXTENDING THROUGH ALASKA, THE EASTERN
PACIFIC, AND WEST COAST OF THE CONUS, WITH RIDGING DEVELOPING OVER EAST-CENTRAL
NORTH AMERICA. TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AND MOVE
EAST ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST DURING WEEK-2. ABOVE-NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS ARE
PREDICTED ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGIONS. NEAR-NORMAL HEIGHTS ARE FAVORED
ACROSS HAWAII.
NEAR- TO ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR MOST OF THE CONUS (EXCLUDING
PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST WHERE ELEVATED BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURE PROBABILITIES
ARE FORECAST) FOR WEEK 2, CONSISTENT WITH THE GEFS AND ECMWF TEMPERATURE
REFORECAST CONSOLIDATION TOOLS. ENHANCED SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF TROUGHING
FAVORS A CONTINUATION OF INCREASED NEAR- TO ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURE
PROBABILITIES ACROSS ALASKA. ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO FAVORED ACROSS
THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS IN THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD, FOLLOWING THE TEMPERATURE
CONSOLIDATION.
DURING WEEK-2, INCREASED ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE FORECAST ACROSS
THE WESTERN CONUS GIVEN THE AMPLIFIED TROUGHING. ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS
ALSO FAVORED OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN AND SOUTHERN TIER OF THE CONUS, WHILE
BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
PLAINS, SUPPORTED BY THE GEFS AND ECMWF PRECIPITATION REFORECAST CONSOLIDATION
TOOLS. INCREASED SOUTHERLY ONSHORE FLOW ACROSS ALASKA SUPPORTS ELEVATED CHANCES
OF NEAR- TO ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION OVER THE STATE. PROBABILITIES FOR
ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION ARE INCREASED OVER HAWAII AS WELL, CONSISTENT WITH
THE UNCALIBRATED GEFS AND ECMWF ENSEMBLES.
THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF: 30% OF TODAY'S GFS
SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 40% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 11, AND 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON
DAY 11
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: AVERAGE, 3 OUT OF 5, DUE TO GOOD
AGREEMENT AMONG MODEL SOLUTIONS, OFFSET BY FAIR AGREEMENT ON THE FORECAST
TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TOOLS.
FORECASTER: LUKE H
NOTES:
AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OCCASIONALLY MANUAL
INTERVENTION IS NECESSARY TO ADDRESS QUALITY CONTROL AND CONSISTENCY ISSUES. IN
THESE CASES, FORECASTS ARE MANUALLY DRAWN BUT A FULL DISCUSSION IS NOT ISSUED.
THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS THE SAME AS
THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW
THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER (ORANGE,
"A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N"). HISTORICAL AVERAGE
VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST (DASHES, "F"). LABELS ON THE
SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).
PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WETTER (GREEN,
"A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N"). HISTORICAL MEDIAN VALUES
FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST (DASHES, "INCHES"). LABELS ON THE
SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).
PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL BE A
GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY EVEN A NORMAL
(I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES
A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO
PRECIPITATION.
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1991-2020 BASE PERIOD MEANS AS REFERENCE IN
THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS.
THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON
DECEMBER 21.
ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
19561123 - 20061205 - 20071122 - 19881206 - 19631130
ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
19561123 - 20071122 - 20051118 - 20021123 - 20061205
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR NOV 29 - DEC 03, 2023
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON N A OREGON N A NRN CALIF N A
SRN CALIF B A IDAHO B N NEVADA B A
W MONTANA N N E MONTANA N B WYOMING B B
UTAH B A ARIZONA B A COLORADO B A
NEW MEXICO B A N DAKOTA A B S DAKOTA A B
NEBRASKA N B KANSAS N A OKLAHOMA N A
N TEXAS N A S TEXAS N A W TEXAS N A
MINNESOTA A B IOWA A N MISSOURI N A
ARKANSAS N A LOUISIANA N A WISCONSIN N N
ILLINOIS N N MISSISSIPPI N A MICHIGAN N N
INDIANA N N OHIO B N KENTUCKY B N
TENNESSEE B A ALABAMA B A NEW YORK B B
VERMONT B B NEW HAMP B B MAINE B B
MASS B B CONN B B RHODE IS B B
PENN B N NEW JERSEY B N W VIRGINIA B N
MARYLAND B N DELAWARE B N VIRGINIA B N
N CAROLINA B A S CAROLINA B A GEORGIA B A
FL PNHDL B A FL PENIN B A AK N SLOPE A A
AK ALEUTIAN A A AK WESTERN A A AK INT BSN A A
AK S INT A A AK SO COAST A A AK PNHDL A A
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR DEC 01 - 07 2023
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON A A OREGON A A NRN CALIF A A
SRN CALIF N A IDAHO A A NEVADA N A
W MONTANA A A E MONTANA A N WYOMING A A
UTAH A A ARIZONA A A COLORADO A A
NEW MEXICO A A N DAKOTA A B S DAKOTA A B
NEBRASKA A N KANSAS A N OKLAHOMA A A
N TEXAS A A S TEXAS A A W TEXAS A A
MINNESOTA A N IOWA A N MISSOURI A A
ARKANSAS A A LOUISIANA A A WISCONSIN A N
ILLINOIS A A MISSISSIPPI A A MICHIGAN A N
INDIANA A A OHIO A A KENTUCKY A A
TENNESSEE A A ALABAMA A A NEW YORK N A
VERMONT N N NEW HAMP N N MAINE N N
MASS N N CONN N A RHODE IS B A
PENN N A NEW JERSEY N A W VIRGINIA A A
MARYLAND N A DELAWARE N A VIRGINIA N A
N CAROLINA N A S CAROLINA A A GEORGIA A A
FL PNHDL A A FL PENIN A A AK N SLOPE N N
AK ALEUTIAN A N AK WESTERN A N AK INT BSN N N
AK S INT N N AK SO COAST N N AK PNHDL N A
LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW B - BELOW
THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.
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