225
FXUS01 KWBC 260801
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
300 AM EST SUN NOV 26 2023
VALID 12Z SUN NOV 26 2023 - 12Z TUE NOV 28 2023
...MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE ALONG THE GULF COAST AND THE
NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC TO NEW ENGLAND COASTS...
...MODERATE TO HEAVY LAKE-EFFECT SNOWFALL FOR PORTIONS OF THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES SUNDAY AND LOWER GREAT LAKES BEGINNING MONDAY..
...TRANQUIL WEATHER ON TAP FROM THE PLAINS WEST TO THE WEST
COAST...
...BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES COMMON FOR MUCH OF THE COUNTRY TO
START THE WORK WEEK...
AN ENERGETIC UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND SERIES OF SURFACE FRONTAL
SYSTEMS PASSING THROUGH THE EASTERN U.S. ON SUNDAY WILL LEAD TO
INCREASED PRECIPITATION CHANCES BROADLY ACROSS THE REGION, WITH
SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND LAKE-EFFECT SNOW EXPECTED. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN FIRST ALONG THE GULF COAST AND INTO
FLORIDA SUNDAY MORNING AND CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON, WITH SOME
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE PARTICULARLY FROM THE FLORIDA BIG
BEND NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN GEORGIA. A COASTAL LOW DEVELOPING
NEAR THE CAROLINAS AND PUSHING NORTHWARD WILL HELP TO ENHANCE
RAINFALL CHANCES NORTHWARD THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC AND INTO NEW
ENGLAND BY EARLY SUNDAY EVENING AND CONTINUING OVERNIGHT, WITH
SOME AREAS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE FOR SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. THE RAIN SHOULD TAPER OFF FOR THE GULF COAST/SOUTHEAST
AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BY MONDAY BUT WILL CONTINUE FOR COASTAL
MAINE THROUGH MONDAY EVENING.
MEANWHILE, IN THE COLDER AIR TO THE NORTHWEST, A WINTRY MIX IS
LIKELY SUNDAY FROM THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY NORTHEASTWARD
THROUGH THE MIDWEST, THE APPALACHIANS, AND INTO THE INTERIOR
NORTHEAST. ANY ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE MINIMAL EXCEPT WHERE A
COUPLE INCHES OR SO WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR SOME OF THE MOUNTAIN
RANGES OF THE INTERIOR NORTHEAST AND INTO NORTHERN MAINE. HOWEVER,
MORE MODERATE LAKE-EFFECT SNOWFALL IS FORECAST FOR FAVORABLE
REGIONS ALONG THE NORTH SHORE OF THE UPPER PENINSULA OF MICHIGAN
AND WESTERN LOWER MICHIGAN SUNDAY, WITH 3-6 INCHES EXPECTED. THEN,
ON MONDAY, WHAT COULD END UP BEING SEVERAL DAYS OF HEAVY
LAKE-EFFECT SNOW WILL BEGIN DOWNWIND OF LAKE ERIE AND ONTARIO.
SNOW TOTALS FOR MONDAY ALONE COULD EXCEED A FOOT.
ELSEWHERE, DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE PLAINS AND WESTERN
U.S. AS THE WINTER STORM OVER THE HOLIDAY FOR THE ROCKIES/PLAINS
CLEARS OUT. SOME GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW
AVERAGE ACROSS MOST OF THE COUNTRY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS,
PARTICULARLY AWAY FROM THE COASTS. A BROAD AREA WITH HIGHS IN THE
20S AND 30S IS FORECAST FROM THE GREAT BASIN EAST THROUGH THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS, UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, AND GREAT LAKES. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 40S AND
50S FOR THE OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEYS AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS, WITH 50S FOR MUCH OF TEXAS AND THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, AND EVEN AS FAR SOUTH AS THE GULF COAST BY
MONDAY. HIGHS IN THE 50S IN THE CAROLINAS AND INTO THE SOUTHEAST
SUNDAY WILL ALSO BE BELOW AVERAGE, THOUGH MAY MODERATE SOME
MONDAY. THE NORTHEAST WILL BE A BIT CLOSER TO AVERAGE, WITH 30S
AND 40S IN NEW ENGLAND AND 40S AND 50S INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC. THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES/GREAT BASIN AND WEST COAST WILL BE THE ONE
LOCATION SEEING BROADLY ABOVE AVERAGE HIGHS AS AN UPPER-LEVEL
RIDGE MOVES OVERHEAD, WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S FOR THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES/GREAT BASIN, 50S FOR THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST, 60S FOR
NORTHERN/CENTRAL CALIFORNIA, AND 70S INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA.
HOWEVER, CLEAR SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT WILL RESULT IN
SOME LOWS DROPPING TO AT OR BELOW FREEZING FOR THE INTERIOR
CALIFORNIA VALLEYS AND NORTHERN MOJAVE DESERT, WITH FREEZE-RELATED
ADVISORIES REMAINING IN PLACE.
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