084
FXUS01 KWBC 290800
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
300 AM EST WED NOV 29 2023
VALID 12Z WED NOV 29 2023 - 12Z FRI DEC 01 2023
...BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES CONTINUE WEDNESDAY FOR THE EAST
COAST AND SOUTH WITH FREEZE-RELATED ADVISORIES FOR THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE AND SOUTH GEORGIA...
...NEW STORM SYSTEM TO BRING THREAT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND
HEAVY RAIN FROM TEXAS INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY THURSDAY...
...UNSETTLED WEATHER TO ARRIVE FOR THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND
CALIFORNIA LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN BE CHILLY AND BELOW AVERAGE BY
ABOUT 15-20 DEGREES WEDNESDAY ALONG THE EAST COAST AND INTO THE
SOUTH AS BROAD UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE
REGION. FORECAST HIGHS RANGE FROM THE 20S AND 30S IN NEW ENGLAND,
30S AND 40S FOR THE MID-ATLANTIC INTO THE CAROLINAS, AND 50S AND
60S THROUGH MUCH OF THE SOUTH OUTSIDE OF SOUTH FLORIDA. FROST AND
FREEZE-RELATED ADVISORIES REMAIN IN PLACE FROM THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE INTO SOUTH GEORGIA AS TEMPERATURES THURSDAY MORNING MAY
ONCE AGAIN DIP TO NEAR OR BELOW THE FREEZING MARK, POTENTIALLY
DAMAGING/KILLING SENSITIVE CROPS AND VEGETATION. CONDITIONS WILL
MODERATE THURSDAY AS THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH BEGINS TO SHIFT
EASTWARD, WITH HIGHS 10-15 DEGREES WARMER AND MUCH CLOSER TO
AVERAGE TO CLOSE NOVEMBER. SOME LINGERING LAKE-EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
DOWNWIND OF LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO SHOULD TAPER OFF THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING, WITH OTHERWISE MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS ALONG THE
EAST COAST.
AN UPPER-LEVEL WAVE PASSING QUICKLY OVER THE FOUR CORNERS AND OUT
OVER THE PLAINS WILL HELP TO ENCOURAGE LEE CYCLOGENESIS LATE
WEDNESDAY/EARLY THURSDAY, HELPING TO ORGANIZE A SURFACE FRONTAL
SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. SOME LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE COLDER AIR OVER THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY, WITH A FEW INCHES OF ACCUMULATIONS
POSSIBLE IN THE HIGHER MOUNTAIN ELEVATIONS. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM
OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND INTO THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. CONTINUED VERY MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW FROM THE
GULF AND INCREASING SHEAR AS THE UPPER-LEVEL WAVE APPROACHES WILL
LEAD TO THE THREAT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE DAY THURSDAY
OVER SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED AN
ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER (LEVEL 3/5) FOR THE THREAT OF A
FEW TORNADOES. STORM COVERAGE SHOULD CONTINUE TO EXPAND NORTH AND
EASTWARD THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE LOWER/MIDDLE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY LATER THURSDAY INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
FRIDAY. SOME LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE EXPECTED, WITH A FEW
ISOLATED INSTANCES OF FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE, THOUGH DRY
ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS IN THE AREA SHOULD KEEP THIS THREAT LIMITED.
FORECAST HIGHS WILL BE RUNNING IN THE 50S AND 60S FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE LOWER/MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, WITH 40S
AND 50S FOR THE CENTRAL PLAINS. SOME COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL FLOW
INTO PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS FOLLOWING A COLD
FRONT PASSAGE THURSDAY, DROPPING INTO THE 40S.
SOME LIGHT COASTAL SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM CENTRAL TO
SOUTHERN COASTAL CALIFORNIA WEDNESDAY AS A WEAK PACIFIC SYSTEM
APPROACHES THE COAST. THEN, A STRONGER SERIES OF SYSTEMS WILL
APPROACH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST/NORTHERN CALIFORNIA BY LATE
WEDNESDAY BRINGING INCREASING PRECIPIATION CHANCES WITH LOWER
ELEVATION/COASTAL RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW. THE PRECIPITATION WILL
SPREAD INLAND INTO THE GREAT BASIN THURSDAY, WITH A WINTRY MIX FOR
THE INTERIOR VALLEYS AND SNOW FOR THE MOUNTAINS. SOME HEAVIER SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE CASCADES AND SIERRA NEVADA,
WITH SOME LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW FOR OTHER REGIONAL HIGHER
ELEVATIONS/MOUNTAIN RANGES. ANY ACCUMULATIONS IN THE VALLEYS
SHOULD BE LIMITED. FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES MORE BROADLY ACROSS
THE WEST WILL BE IN THE 30S AND 40S FOR THE GREAT
BASIN/ROCKIES/PACIFIC NORTHWEST, THE 50S AND 60S FOR CALIFORNIA,
AND THE 60S AND 70S FOR THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. ELSEWHERE,
CONDITIONS WILL BE DRY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST. HIGHS WILL BE WELL ABOVE AVERAGE WEDNESDAY PARTICULARLY
FOR THE NORTHERN PLAINS, WITH SOME TEMPERATURES INTO THE 50S
POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE, HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 30S AND 40S.
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