226
FXUS01 KWBC 291942
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
241 PM EST WED NOV 29 2023
VALID 00Z THU NOV 30 2023 - 00Z SAT DEC 02 2023
...MILDER TEMPERATURES OVER THE PLAINS AND MIDWEST TO PUSH EAST
TOWARD THE EAST COAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...
...NEW STORM SYSTEM TO BRING THREAT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND
HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE ARKLATEX AND THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON
THURSDAY...
...ATMOSPHERIC RIVER ACTIVITY ARRIVING ACROSS THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST BY THE END OF THE WEEK WILL BRING HEAVY RAIN TO THE
COASTAL RANGES, AND HEAVY SNOWFALL TO THE CASCADES...
COLD AIR AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES LINGERING ALONG THE EAST
COAST TODAY WILL GIVE WAY TO A WARMING TREND FOR THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS AS MILDER TEMPERATURES ALREADY ADVANCING ACROSS MANY AREAS
OF THE PLAINS AND MIDWEST ADVANCES OFF TO THE EAST. HOWEVER, THERE
WILL BE ONE MORE NIGHT OF SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES THAT WILL
IMPACT PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST WITH A FOCUS ON SOUTHEAST
ALABAMA, THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE, THE NORTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA,
AND SOUTHERN GEORGIA WHERE FREEZE WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT. ONCE
AGAIN THERE SHOULD BE PRECAUTIONS TAKEN TO PROTECT SENSITIVE
VEGETATION AS LOW TEMPERATURES BY THURSDAY MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO
DROP AS COLD AS THE UPPER 20S AND LOW 30S.
ON THURSDAY AND HEADING INTO FRIDAY, ONE OF THE BIGGER STORIES
WILL BE THE INCREASING THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER AND EVEN SOME
CONCERNS FOR LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING AS A STORM SYSTEM CROSSING
THE SOUTHWEST TONIGHT EJECTS OUT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND
TAKES AIM ON THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND MID-SOUTH. IN
CONJUNCTION WITH THE ARRIVAL OF MULTIPLE COLD FRONTS, THERE WILL
BE THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE RED RIVER VALLEY BY
LATE THURSDAY WHICH WILL OPEN THE DOOR FOR A RATHER SIGNIFICANT
NORTHWARD SURGE OF MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY FROM THE GULF OF
MEXICO HEADING THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING AND INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.
THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR RATHER WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ARKLATEX AND THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY, WITH ADJACENT AREAS OF THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND
MID-SOUTH ALSO LIKELY TO SEE AREAS OF MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL.
SEVERE WEATHER IS BECOMING MORE OF A CONCERN IN PARTICULAR OVER
AREAS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS ON THURSDAY, AND THE STORM PREDICTION
CENTER HAS DEPICTED AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS THIS
REGION WITH CONCERNS FOR A FEW TORNADOES. SOME OF THE SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT MAY SPREAD EAST INTO AREAS OF SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA
HEADING INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. REGARDING THE RAINFALL THREAT,
LOCALLY A FEW INCHES OF RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE, AND WHILE MOST OF
THE RAIN SHOULD BE BENEFICIAL IN NATURE ACROSS THE BROADER
ARKLATEX AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, SOME LOCALIZED FLASH
FLOODING CONCERNS AND ESPECIALLY AROUND THE MORE URBANIZED AREAS
OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA, WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE
WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER CURRENTLY HAS A MARGINAL RISK OF
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DEPICTED ACROSS THESE AREAS.
ON FRIDAY, THIS STORM SYSTEM WILL CROSS THROUGH THE MID-SOUTH AND
LIFT INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. A FAIRLY WIDESPREAD AREA OF
MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL STILL ACCOMPANY THE LOW TRACK,
BUT THE HEAVIEST RAINS SHOULD STAY CONFINED CLOSER TO THE CENTRAL
GULF COAST WHERE BETTER MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL HELP
CONCENTRATE MORE OF THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. A MARGINAL RISK OF
BOTH SEVERE WEATHER AND FLASH FLOODING IS DEPICTED ACROSS THESE
AREAS RESPECTFULLY FROM THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER AND WEATHER
PREDICTION CENTER.
ELSEWHERE, AN ACTIVE AND WET WEATHER PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO ENSUE
ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS ATMOSPHERIC
RIVER ACTIVITY ARRIVES IN OFF THE PACIFIC OCEAN IN CONJUNCTION
WITH A COUPLE OF COLD FRONTS. STRENGTHENING ONSHORE FLOW AND
MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL SET THE STAGE FOR AREAS OF HEAVY RAINFALL
ACROSS THE COASTAL RANGES, WITH LOCALLY A FEW INCHES OF RAIN
EXPECTED. HOWEVER, OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE CASCADES,
HEAVY SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED, AND SOME AREAS MAY SEE AS MUCH AS 1 TO
2 FEET OF NEW SNOW BY LATE FRIDAY WITH MORE ON THE WAY HEADING
INTO THE WEEKEND.
ORRISON
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