129
FXUS01 KWBC 302003
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
302 PM EST THU NOV 30 2023
VALID 00Z FRI DEC 01 2023 - 00Z SUN DEC 03 2023
...STORM SYSTEM TO BRING A THREAT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND
HEAVY RAIN THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHERN
LOUISIANA...
...AREAS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE PRECIPITATION EXPECTED FROM THE
CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE INTERIOR NORTHEAST, WITH A WINTRY MIX
POSSIBLE FOR SOME LOCATIONS...
...ATMOSPHERIC RIVER ACTIVITY ARRIVING ACROSS THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST BY THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND WITH HEAVY
RAIN FOR THE COASTAL RANGES, AND HEAVY SNOWFALL TO THE CASCADES...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION CURRENTLY WILL
MOVE EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THIS EVENING WHICH
WILL HELP TO FOCUS A STRENGTHENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE NORTH OF
THE RED RIVER VALLEY AS A COUPLE OF TRAILING COLD FRONTS DROP
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS TEXAS. THIS LOW CENTER WILL THEN MOVE INTO
THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY EARLY FRIDAY WITH A COLD FRONT
GRADUALLY REACHING AND CROSSING THE NORTHWEST GULF COAST. GOING
THROUGH THIS EVENING AND THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD AHEAD OF THESE
FRONTS, VERY MOIST SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO
WILL RESULT IN A THREAT FOR BOTH SEVERE WEATHER AND SOME FLASH
FLOODING AS NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP.
THE BEST THREAT FOR THIS HAS BECOME A LITTLE MORE CONCENTRATED AND
IS GENERALLY FOCUSED ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHERN
LOUISIANA. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER CURRENTLY HAS A SLIGHT RISK
OF SEVERE WEATHER (LEVEL 2/5) FOR THE THREAT OF A FEW TORNADOES
ALONG WITH ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS.
ADDITIONALLY, SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING VERY HEAVY RAINFALL, AND THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER
HAS DEPICTED A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL (LEVEL 2/4) FOR
MUCH OF THE SAME AREA WHERE LOCALLY A FEW INCHES OF RAIN WILL BE
POSSIBLE WHICH MAY RESULT IN SOME AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING. THE
REMAINDER OF THE BROADER ARKLATEX REGION AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY SHOULD SEE A THREAT FOR SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
OVERNIGHT AND EARLY ON FRIDAY, BUT MUCH OF THIS SHOULD BE
BENEFICIAL IN NATURE. AS THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW CENTER CROSSES
THROUGH THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY
ON FRIDAY, SOME VERY LOCALIZED CONCERNS FOR SEVERE WEATHER AND
FLASH FLOODING COULD SPREAD FARTHER EAST ALONG THE CENTRAL GULF
COAST.
ADDITIONAL LIGHT TO MODERATE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO THE
NORTH OF THE SURFACE LOW TRACK, IMPACTING PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL
PLAINS AND MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO EARLY FRIDAY, AND THEN
TRANSITIONING DOWNSTREAM ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY, LOWER GREAT LAKES
AND THE INTERIOR OF THE NORTHEAST LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
SUFFICIENT COLD AIR SHOULD BE IN PLACE FOR AT LEAST A SWATH OF A
COUPLE OF INCHES OF ACCUMULATING SNOW ALONG THE NORTHERN EDGE OF
THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD.
MEANWHILE, AN ACTIVE PATTERN OF ATMOSPHERIC RIVER ACTIVITY WILL
IMPACT THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND SPILL OVER INTO THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND. THE COASTAL RANGES AND LOWER
ELEVATIONS OF THE CASCADES WILL SEE MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN, WITH
LOCALLY SEVERAL INCHES OF RAIN EXPECTED OVER THE MULTI-DAY PERIOD
HEADING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS MAY RESULT IN SOME RIVER
FLOODING CONCERNS. VERY HEAVY SNOWFALL WILL IMPACT THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE CASCADES WHERE LOCALLY A FEW FEET OF SNOWFALL CAN
BE EXPECTED. TRAVEL WILL BE DIFFICULT AND HAZARDOUS DUE TO BOTH
HEAVY AND BLOWING SNOW. AS THIS PACIFIC MOISTURE AND ENERGY TRACKS
INLAND, HEAVY ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL WILL ALSO ARRIVE ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WHERE UP TO A COUPLE OF
FEET OF NEW SNOW CAN BE EXPECTED BY SUNDAY.
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