963
FXUS06 KWBC 012017
PMDMRD
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD
300 PM EST MON JANUARY 01 2024
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JAN 07 - 11 2024
TODAY'S MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE PREDICTED AMPLIFIED
500-HPA CIRCULATION PATTERN ACROSS NORTH AMERICA AND SURROUNDING REGIONS DURING
THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD. THE MANUAL 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND IS BASED PRIMARILY ON THE
ENSEMBLE MEANS FROM THE GFS, ECMWF, AND CANADIAN MODELS DUE TO RECENT MODEL
SKILL. THE RESULTANT MANUAL BLEND FEATURES TROUGHING OVER THE BERING SEA.
STRONG RIDGING AND POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES ARE FORECAST OVER THE NORTH
PACIFIC OCEAN EXTENDING NORTHWARD TO ALASKA. ANOTHER BROAD TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED BELOW-NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST OVER MUCH OF THE
CONTIGUOUS U.S. (CONUS), WHILE RIDGING AND ABOVE-NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS ARE
PREDICTED OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS. BELOW-NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS ARE ALSO
FORECAST FOR HAWAII.
ENHANCED CHANCES FOR BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED OVER THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE CONUS DUE TO NEGATIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES AND MID-LEVEL
TROUGHING OVER THE REGION. THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES FOR BELOW-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES (IN EXCESS OF 80 PERCENT) ARE INDICATED OVER PARTS OF THE
SOUTHWESTERN CONUS. NEAR- TO ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY OVER THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS, SUPPORTED BY MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL TEMPERATURE
FORECAST TOOLS. CHANCES FOR ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE INCREASED FOR ALASKA,
DUE TO PREDICTED RIDGING AND SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. FOR HAWAII, FORECAST TOOLS
FAVOR ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE ENTIRE ISLAND CHAIN.
NEGATIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES AND BROAD MID-LEVEL TROUGHING ARE PREDICTED
OVER THE CONUS AND FAVOR ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION OVER MUCH OF THE CONUS
DURING THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD, CONSISTENT WITH THE GEFS AND ECMWF PRECIPITATION
REFORECAST CONSOLIDATION TOOLS. IN ALASKA, SOUTHERLY FLOW, ALONG WITH A CHANCE
FOR A STRONG BERING SEA STORM INCREASES CHANCES FOR ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION
FOR NEARLY THE ENTIRE STATE, SUPPORTED BY MOST DYNAMICAL PRECIPITATION FORECAST
TOOLS. ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS STRONGLY FAVORED IN HAWAII IN TODAY’S
OUTLOOK DUE TO LARGE INCREASES IN PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE REFORECAST TOOLS.
THE OFFICIAL 6-10 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF 30% OF TODAY'S GFS
SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 40% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 8, AND 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY
8
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: ABOVE AVERAGE, 4 OUT OF 5, DUE TO
GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG MODEL SOLUTIONS AND FORECAST TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION
TOOLS.
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JAN 09 - 15 2024
ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD PREDICT A FAIRLY PERSISTENT AND
SIMILAR 500-HPA CIRCULATION PATTERN TO THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD ACROSS NORTH AMERICA
AND THE SURROUNDING REGIONS. THE GEFS AND ECMWF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING
WEAKENING OF THE BERING SEA MID-LEVEL TROUGH. A STRONG RIDGE WITH ABOVE-NORMAL
500-HPA HEIGHTS REMAINS OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC OCEAN AND ALASKA. A BROAD AND
FULL LATITUDE TROUGH IS CONTINUED TO BE PREDICTED ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS.
BELOW-NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS ARE FORECASTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE CONUS, WHILE
POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES ARE PREDICTED OVER MAINE. BELOW-NORMAL
500-HPA HEIGHTS ARE ALSO PREDICTED OVER HAWAII.
BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL CONUS, UNDER
PREDICTED TROUGHING AND NEGATIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES, WHILE ABOVE-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST, SUPPORTED BY MOST OF THE
DYNAMICAL TEMPERATURE FORECAST TOOLS. IN ALASKA, ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES
REMAIN FAVORED ACROSS MUCH OF THE STATE EXCLUDING SOUTHEAST ALASKA, WHERE
NEAR-NORMAL TO BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED. IN HAWAII, ABOVE-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED ACROSS THE ISLAND CHAIN FOLLOWING THE TEMPERATURE
CONSOLIDATION TOOL.
GENERALLY ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED ACROSS MOST OF THE CONUS
BENEATH AN ACTIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT PATTERN, SUPPORTED BY A MAJORITY OF
PRECIPITATION TOOLS. THE HIGHER PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION
ARE FORECAST OVER THE EASTERN CONUS, CONSISTENT WITH THE GEFS AND ECMWF
PRECIPITATION REFORECAST CONSOLIDATION TOOLS. IN ALASKA, ABOVE-NORMAL
PRECIPITATION IS GENERALLY FAVORED ACROSS MUCH OF THE MAINLAND WITH NEAR-NORMAL
REMAINING FAVORED IN PARTS OF SOUTHEAST ALASKA. IN HAWAII, ABOVE-NORMAL
PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY ACROSS THE ISLAND CHAIN, AS INDICATED BY THE
PRECIPITATION CONSOLIDATION TOOL
THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF: 30% OF TODAY'S GFS
SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 40% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 11, AND 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON
DAY 11
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: ABOVE AVERAGE, 4 OUT OF 5, DUE TO
GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG MODEL SOLUTIONS AND FORECAST TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION
TOOLS.
FORECASTER: LUKE H
NOTES:
AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OCCASIONALLY MANUAL
INTERVENTION IS NECESSARY TO ADDRESS QUALITY CONTROL AND CONSISTENCY ISSUES. IN
THESE CASES, FORECASTS ARE MANUALLY DRAWN BUT A FULL DISCUSSION IS NOT ISSUED.
THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS THE SAME AS
THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW
THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER (ORANGE,
"A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N"). HISTORICAL AVERAGE
VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST (DASHES, "F"). LABELS ON THE
SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).
PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WETTER (GREEN,
"A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N"). HISTORICAL MEDIAN VALUES
FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST (DASHES, "INCHES"). LABELS ON THE
SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).
PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL BE A
GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY EVEN A NORMAL
(I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES
A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO
PRECIPITATION.
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1991-2020 BASE PERIOD MEANS AS REFERENCE IN
THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS.
THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON
JANUARY 18.
ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
19810115 - 19941229 - 20011223 - 19791229 - 20030105
ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
19941228 - 19810114 - 19580105 - 20011223 - 19951221
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR JAN 07 - 11 2024
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON B A OREGON B A NRN CALIF B N
SRN CALIF B A IDAHO B A NEVADA B A
W MONTANA B A E MONTANA B A WYOMING B A
UTAH B A ARIZONA B A COLORADO B A
NEW MEXICO B A N DAKOTA B A S DAKOTA B A
NEBRASKA B A KANSAS B A OKLAHOMA B A
N TEXAS N A S TEXAS N A W TEXAS B A
MINNESOTA N A IOWA N A MISSOURI N A
ARKANSAS N A LOUISIANA N A WISCONSIN A A
ILLINOIS A A MISSISSIPPI N A MICHIGAN A A
INDIANA A A OHIO A A KENTUCKY N A
TENNESSEE N A ALABAMA N A NEW YORK A A
VERMONT A A NEW HAMP A A MAINE A A
MASS A A CONN A A RHODE IS A A
PENN A A NEW JERSEY A A W VIRGINIA A A
MARYLAND A A DELAWARE A A VIRGINIA A A
N CAROLINA A A S CAROLINA N A GEORGIA N A
FL PNHDL N A FL PENIN A A AK N SLOPE A A
AK ALEUTIAN A A AK WESTERN A A AK INT BSN A A
AK S INT A A AK SO COAST A A AK PNHDL N A
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR JAN 09 - 15 2024
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON B A OREGON B A NRN CALIF B A
SRN CALIF B A IDAHO B A NEVADA B A
W MONTANA B A E MONTANA B A WYOMING B A
UTAH B A ARIZONA B A COLORADO B A
NEW MEXICO B A N DAKOTA B A S DAKOTA B A
NEBRASKA B A KANSAS B A OKLAHOMA B N
N TEXAS B N S TEXAS B N W TEXAS B N
MINNESOTA B A IOWA B A MISSOURI B A
ARKANSAS B A LOUISIANA B A WISCONSIN B A
ILLINOIS B A MISSISSIPPI B A MICHIGAN N A
INDIANA B A OHIO N A KENTUCKY B A
TENNESSEE B A ALABAMA B A NEW YORK A A
VERMONT A A NEW HAMP A A MAINE A A
MASS A A CONN A A RHODE IS A A
PENN N A NEW JERSEY A A W VIRGINIA N A
MARYLAND A A DELAWARE A A VIRGINIA N A
N CAROLINA A A S CAROLINA A A GEORGIA N A
FL PNHDL N A FL PENIN A A AK N SLOPE A A
AK ALEUTIAN A A AK WESTERN A A AK INT BSN A A
AK S INT A A AK SO COAST A A AK PNHDL N N
LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW B - BELOW
THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.
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