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FXUS06 KWBC 032002
PMDMRD
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD
300 PM EST WED JANUARY 03 2024
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JAN 09 - 13 2024
TODAY'S MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE PREDICTED AMPLIFIED
500-HPA CIRCULATION PATTERN ACROSS NORTH AMERICA AND SURROUNDING REGIONS DURING
THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD. THE MANUAL 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND IS BASED PRIMARILY ON THE
ENSEMBLE MEANS FROM THE GFS, ECMWF, AND CANADIAN MODELS DUE TO RECENT MODEL
SKILL. THE RESULTANT MANUAL BLEND FEATURES TROUGHING OVER THE WESTERN BERING
SEA. STRONG RIDGING AND POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES ARE FORECAST OVER THE NORTH
PACIFIC OCEAN EXTENDING NORTHWARD TO ALASKA. ANOTHER BROAD TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED BELOW-NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST OVER MOST OF THE
CONTIGUOUS U.S. (CONUS), WHILE RIDGING AND ABOVE-NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS ARE
PREDICTED ALONG THE IMMEDIATE ATLANTIC COAST. BELOW-NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS ARE
FORECAST FOR HAWAII.
ENHANCED CHANCES FOR BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED OVER THE WESTERN AND
CENTRAL CONUS DUE TO NEGATIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES AND MID-LEVEL TROUGHING
OVER THE REGION. THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES FOR BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES (IN
EXCESS OF 80 PERCENT) ARE INDICATED OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS. NEAR-
TO ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS,
SUPPORTED BY MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL TEMPERATURE FORECAST TOOLS. CHANCES FOR
NEAR- TO ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE INCREASED FOR ALASKA, (EXCEPT FOR
SOUTHEAST ALASKA, WHERE BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED) DUE TO PREDICTED
RIDGING AND SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. FOR HAWAII, FORECAST TOOLS FAVOR BELOW-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES OVER NORTHWESTERN ISLANDS (KAUAI AND OAHU), AND ABOVE-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR SOUTHEASTERN ISLANDS (MAUI AND THE BIG ISLAND).
NEGATIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES AND BROAD MID-LEVEL TROUGHING ARE PREDICTED
OVER MOST OF THE CONUS AND FAVOR ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION OVER MUCH OF THE
CONUS (EXCEPT FOR PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS, WHERE BELOW-NORMAL
PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED), CONSISTENT WITH THE GEFS AND ECMWF PRECIPITATION
REFORECAST CONSOLIDATION TOOLS. THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE-NORMAL
PRECIPITATION (IN EXCESS OF 70 PERCENT) ARE INDICATED OVER PARTS OF THE EASTERN
CONUS. IN ALASKA, SOUTHERLY FLOW, ALONG WITH A CHANCE FOR A STRONG BERING SEA
STORM INCREASES CHANCES FOR ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR MUCH OF THE STATE,
EXCLUDING SOUTHEAST ALASKA, WHERE NEAR-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED,
SUPPORTED BY MOST DYNAMICAL PRECIPITATION FORECAST TOOLS. ABOVE-NORMAL
PRECIPITATION IS STRONGLY FAVORED IN HAWAII IN TODAY’S OUTLOOK DUE TO LARGE
INCREASES IN PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE REFORECAST TOOLS.
THE OFFICIAL 6-10 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF 30% OF TODAY'S GFS
SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 40% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 8, AND 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY
8
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: ABOVE AVERAGE, 4 OUT OF 5, DUE TO
GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG MODEL SOLUTIONS AND FORECAST TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION
TOOLS.
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JAN 11 - 17 2024
ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD PREDICT A FAIRLY PERSISTENT AND
SIMILAR 500-HPA CIRCULATION PATTERN TO THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD ACROSS NORTH AMERICA
AND THE SURROUNDING REGIONS. THE GEFS AND ECMWF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING
WEAKENING OF THE WESTERN BERING SEA MID-LEVEL TROUGH. A STRONG RIDGE WITH
ABOVE-NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS REMAINS OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC OCEAN AND ALASKA. A
BROAD AND FULL LATITUDE TROUGH CONTINUES TO BE PREDICTED ACROSS THE CENTRAL
CONUS. BELOW-NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS ARE FORECASTED ACROSS MOST OF THE CONUS,
WHILE POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES ARE PREDICTED ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST.
BELOW-NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS ARE PREDICTED OVER HAWAII.
BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL CONUS, UNDER
PREDICTED TROUGHING AND NEGATIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES, WHILE NEAR- TO
ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE MOST LIKELY OVER THE EASTERN CONUS, SUPPORTED BY
MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL TEMPERATURE FORECAST TOOLS. IN ALASKA, NEAR- TO
ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES REMAIN FAVORED ACROSS MUCH OF THE STATE EXCLUDING
SOUTHEAST ALASKA, WHERE BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED. IN HAWAII,
PROBABILITIES OF BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE ENHANCED OVER THE NORTHWESTERN
ISLANDS (KAUAI AND OAHU), WHILE NEAR- TO ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED
ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN ISLANDS (MAUI AND THE BIG ISLAND) FOLLOWING THE
TEMPERATURE CONSOLIDATION TOOL.
GENERALLY ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED ACROSS MOST OF THE CONUS
(EXCEPT FOR PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS, WHERE BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION
PROBABILITIES ARE SLIGHTLY ENHANCED) BENEATH AN ACTIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT PATTERN,
SUPPORTED BY A MAJORITY OF PRECIPITATION TOOLS. THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES FOR
ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION (IN EXCESS OF 50 PERCENT) ARE FORECAST OVER PARTS OF
THE SOUTHEAST, CONSISTENT WITH THE GEFS AND ECMWF PRECIPITATION REFORECAST
CONSOLIDATION TOOLS. IN ALASKA, ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS GENERALLY FAVORED
ACROSS THE MAINLAND, WHILE NEAR-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED IN SOUTHEAST
ALASKA. IN HAWAII, CHANCES OF ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION ARE ELEVATED ACROSS
THE ISLAND CHAIN, AS INDICATED BY THE PRECIPITATION CONSOLIDATION TOOL.
THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF: 30% OF TODAY'S GFS
SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 40% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 11, AND 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON
DAY 11
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: ABOVE AVERAGE, 4 OUT OF 5, DUE TO
GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG MODEL SOLUTIONS AND FORECAST TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION
TOOLS.
FORECASTER: LUKE H
NOTES:
AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OCCASIONALLY MANUAL
INTERVENTION IS NECESSARY TO ADDRESS QUALITY CONTROL AND CONSISTENCY ISSUES. IN
THESE CASES, FORECASTS ARE MANUALLY DRAWN BUT A FULL DISCUSSION IS NOT ISSUED.
THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS THE SAME AS
THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW
THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER (ORANGE,
"A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N"). HISTORICAL AVERAGE
VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST (DASHES, "F"). LABELS ON THE
SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).
PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WETTER (GREEN,
"A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N"). HISTORICAL MEDIAN VALUES
FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST (DASHES, "INCHES"). LABELS ON THE
SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).
PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL BE A
GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY EVEN A NORMAL
(I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES
A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO
PRECIPITATION.
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1991-2020 BASE PERIOD MEANS AS REFERENCE IN
THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS.
THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON
JANUARY 18.
ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
19941229 - 19850106 - 19951227 - 19601214 - 19580107
ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
19941228 - 19580107 - 19931214 - 20051226 - 19861219
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR JAN 09 - 13 2024
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON B A OREGON B A NRN CALIF B A
SRN CALIF B A IDAHO B A NEVADA B A
W MONTANA B A E MONTANA B A WYOMING B A
UTAH B A ARIZONA B A COLORADO B A
NEW MEXICO B A N DAKOTA B A S DAKOTA B A
NEBRASKA B A KANSAS B A OKLAHOMA B A
N TEXAS B N S TEXAS N B W TEXAS B A
MINNESOTA B A IOWA N A MISSOURI N A
ARKANSAS N A LOUISIANA N A WISCONSIN A A
ILLINOIS N A MISSISSIPPI N A MICHIGAN A A
INDIANA A A OHIO A A KENTUCKY A A
TENNESSEE A A ALABAMA A A NEW YORK A A
VERMONT A A NEW HAMP A A MAINE A A
MASS A A CONN A A RHODE IS A A
PENN A A NEW JERSEY A A W VIRGINIA A A
MARYLAND A A DELAWARE A A VIRGINIA A A
N CAROLINA A A S CAROLINA A A GEORGIA A A
FL PNHDL A A FL PENIN A A AK N SLOPE A A
AK ALEUTIAN A A AK WESTERN A A AK INT BSN A A
AK S INT N A AK SO COAST N A AK PNHDL B N
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR JAN 11 - 17 2024
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON B A OREGON B A NRN CALIF B A
SRN CALIF B A IDAHO B A NEVADA B A
W MONTANA B A E MONTANA B A WYOMING B A
UTAH B A ARIZONA B A COLORADO B A
NEW MEXICO B A N DAKOTA B A S DAKOTA B A
NEBRASKA B A KANSAS B A OKLAHOMA B N
N TEXAS B N S TEXAS N N W TEXAS B N
MINNESOTA B A IOWA B A MISSOURI B A
ARKANSAS B N LOUISIANA N A WISCONSIN B A
ILLINOIS B A MISSISSIPPI N A MICHIGAN N A
INDIANA N A OHIO N A KENTUCKY N A
TENNESSEE N A ALABAMA N A NEW YORK A A
VERMONT A A NEW HAMP A A MAINE A A
MASS A A CONN A A RHODE IS A A
PENN A A NEW JERSEY A A W VIRGINIA N A
MARYLAND A A DELAWARE A A VIRGINIA A A
N CAROLINA A A S CAROLINA A A GEORGIA N A
FL PNHDL A A FL PENIN A A AK N SLOPE A A
AK ALEUTIAN A N AK WESTERN A A AK INT BSN A A
AK S INT N A AK SO COAST N A AK PNHDL B N
LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW B - BELOW
THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.
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