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FXUS06 KWBC 042002
PMDMRD
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD
300 PM EST THU JANUARY 04 2024
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JAN 10 - 14 2024
TODAY'S MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE PREDICTED AMPLIFIED
500-HPA CIRCULATION PATTERN ACROSS NORTH AMERICA AND SURROUNDING REGIONS DURING
THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD. THE MANUAL 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND IS BASED ON THE 0Z
ENSEMBLE MEANS FROM THE GEFS, ECMWF, AND CANADIAN MODELS, WEIGHTING THE ECMWF
MODEL SLIGHTLY HIGHER DUE TO RECENT MODEL SKILL. A TROUGH IS PREDICTED OVER
EASTERN SIBERIA BY THE MANUAL BLEND. AN AMPLIFIED RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED POSITIVE
500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES ARE FORECAST OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC OCEAN EXTENDING
NORTHWARD OVER ALASKA. A BROAD TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED NEGATIVE 500-HPA HEIGHTS
ARE FORECAST OVER MOST OF THE CONTIGUOUS U.S. (CONUS), WHILE RIDGING AND
POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHTS ARE PREDICTED ALONG THE IMMEDIATE ATLANTIC COAST.
SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES ARE FORECAST FOR HAWAII.
ENHANCED PROBABILITIES FOR BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED OVER THE
WESTERN CONUS AND MOST OF THE CENTRAL CONUS, DUE TO NEGATIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT
ANOMALIES AND MID-LEVEL TROUGHING OVER THE REGION. THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES
FOR BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES (IN EXCESS OF 80 PERCENT) ARE INDICATED OVER THE
NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND PARTS OF THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS. NEAR- TO ABOVE-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY OVER THE NORTHEAST AND ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST OF THE
SOUTHEAST, SUPPORTED BY THE REFORECAST-CONSOLIDATION TEMPERATURE FORECAST TOOL.
PROBABILITIES OF ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE INCREASED FOR WESTERN AND
CENTRAL INTERIOR ALASKA, DUE TO PREDICTED RIDGING AND SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. NEAR-
TO BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR EASTERN MAINLAND ALASKA AND
SOUTHEAST ALASKA, INCLUDING THE PANHANDLE, UNDER ANOMALOUS NORTHERLY MID-LEVEL
FLOW. FOR HAWAII, FORECAST TOOLS FAVOR BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER
NORTHWESTERN ISLANDS (KAUAI, OAHU AND MAUI), AND NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR
THE BIG ISLAND.
NEGATIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES AND BROAD MID-LEVEL TROUGHING AND CYCLONIC
FLOW ARE PREDICTED OVER MOST OF THE CONUS AND FAVOR ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION
OVER MUCH OF THE CONUS, EXCEPT FOR PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WHERE
BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED, CONSISTENT WITH THE GEFS AND ECMWF
PRECIPITATION, REFORECAST AND CONSOLIDATION TOOLS. THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES
FOR ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION (IN EXCESS OF 70 PERCENT) ARE INDICATED OVER
PARTS OF THE EASTERN CONUS. IN ALASKA, SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW ALONG WITH A
CHANCE FOR A STRONG BERING SEA STORM INCREASE CHANCES FOR ABOVE-NORMAL
PRECIPITATION FOR MUCH OF THE STATE, EXCLUDING SOUTHEAST ALASKA, WHERE
BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED, SUPPORTED BY THE GEFS AND ECMWF MODEL
PRECIPITATION FORECAST TOOLS. ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS SLIGHTLY FAVORED IN
HAWAII IN TODAY’S 6-10 DAY OUTLOOK, DUE TO AN INCREASE IN CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION IN THE REFORECAST-CONSOLIDATION TOOL.
THE OFFICIAL 6-10 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 40% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 8, AND 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY
8
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: MUCH ABOVE AVERAGE, 5 OUT OF 5,
DUE TO GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG MODEL SOLUTIONS ON AN AMPLIFIED MID-LEVEL
CIRCULATION PATTERN AND AMONG TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION FORECAST TOOLS.
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JAN 12 - 18 2024
ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD PREDICT A FAIRLY PERSISTENT
500-HPA CIRCULATION PATTERN (SIMILAR TO THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD) ACROSS NORTH
AMERICA AND THE SURROUNDING REGIONS. THE GEFS AND ECMWF MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT REGARDING WEAKENING OF THE WESTERN BERING SEA MID-LEVEL TROUGH. A
STRONG RIDGE WITH ASSOCIATED POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES REMAINS OVER THE
NORTH PACIFIC OCEAN AND ALASKA. A BROAD TROUGH CONTINUES TO BE PREDICTED
CENTERED OVER THE CONUS. NEGATIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES ARE PREDICTED OVER
NEARLY ALL OF THE CONUS IN THE MANUAL BLEND. BELOW-AVERAGE 500-HPA HEIGHTS ARE
PREDICTED OVER HAWAII.
BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL CONUS, UNDER
A PREDICTED TROUGH AND NEGATIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES, WHILE NEAR- TO
ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED OVER THE EASTERN CONUS, SUPPORTED BY A
CONSENSUS OF THE MODEL TEMPERATURE FORECAST TOOLS. ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ARE FAVORED FOR WESTERN ALASKA, WHILE NEAR- TO BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
FAVORED FOR EASTERN AREAS OF THE STATE. IN HAWAII, PROBABILITIES OF
BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE ENHANCED, FOLLOWING THE TEMPERATURE CONSOLIDATION
TOOL.
GENERALLY ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED ACROSS MOST OF THE CONUS
(EXCEPT FOR PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS, WHERE NEAR-NORMAL PRECIPITATION
PROBABILITIES ARE SLIGHTLY ENHANCED) BENEATH AN ACTIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT PATTERN,
AND SUPPORTED BY MOST MODEL PRECIPITATION TOOLS. THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES FOR
ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION (IN EXCESS OF 50 PERCENT) ARE FORECAST OVER PARTS OF
THE SOUTHEAST AND ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER OF THE NORTHEAST, CONSISTENT WITH
THE GEFS AND ECMWF PRECIPITATION REFORECAST-CONSOLIDATION TOOLS. ABOVE-NORMAL
PRECIPITATION IS SLIGHTLY FAVORED ACROSS NORTHERN MAINLAND ALASKA AND THE
WESTERN ALEUTIANS, WHILE NEAR-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED IN SOUTHERN
MAINLAND ALASKA AND BELOW-NORMAL IS FAVORED FOR THE ALASKA PANHANDLE,
CONSISTENT WITH A CONSENSUS OF PRECIPITATION TOOLS. AFTER THE PASSAGE OF A
POTENTIAL PRECIPITATION SYSTEM OVER HAWAII, CHANCES OF BELOW-NORMAL
PRECIPITATION ARE SLIGHTLY ENHANCED ACROSS THE ISLAND CHAIN, AS INDICATED BY
THE PRECIPITATION CONSOLIDATION TOOL.
THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF: 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 40% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 11, AND 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON
DAY 11
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: ABOVE AVERAGE, 4 OUT OF 5, DUE TO
GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG MODEL SOLUTIONS AND FORECAST TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION
TOOLS, OFFSET BY WEAK PROBABILITIES IN MOST PRECIPITATION TOOLS.
FORECASTER: D COLLINS
NOTES:
AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OCCASIONALLY MANUAL
INTERVENTION IS NECESSARY TO ADDRESS QUALITY CONTROL AND CONSISTENCY ISSUES. IN
THESE CASES, FORECASTS ARE MANUALLY DRAWN BUT A FULL DISCUSSION IS NOT ISSUED.
THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS THE SAME AS
THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW
THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER (ORANGE,
"A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N"). HISTORICAL AVERAGE
VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST (DASHES, "F"). LABELS ON THE
SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).
PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WETTER (GREEN,
"A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N"). HISTORICAL MEDIAN VALUES
FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST (DASHES, "INCHES"). LABELS ON THE
SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).
PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL BE A
GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY EVEN A NORMAL
(I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES
A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO
PRECIPITATION.
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1991-2020 BASE PERIOD MEANS AS REFERENCE IN
THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS.
THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON
JANUARY 18.
ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
19521224 - 19751223 - 19861218 - 19951227 - 19580104
ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
19521224 - 19861219 - 19751223 - 19580105 - 20010109
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR JAN 10 - 14 2024
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON B A OREGON B A NRN CALIF B A
SRN CALIF B A IDAHO B A NEVADA B A
W MONTANA B A E MONTANA B A WYOMING B A
UTAH B A ARIZONA B A COLORADO B A
NEW MEXICO B A N DAKOTA B A S DAKOTA B A
NEBRASKA B A KANSAS B A OKLAHOMA B A
N TEXAS B N S TEXAS N B W TEXAS B A
MINNESOTA B A IOWA B A MISSOURI B A
ARKANSAS B A LOUISIANA N A WISCONSIN N A
ILLINOIS N A MISSISSIPPI N A MICHIGAN N A
INDIANA N A OHIO A A KENTUCKY N A
TENNESSEE N A ALABAMA N A NEW YORK A A
VERMONT A A NEW HAMP A A MAINE A A
MASS A A CONN A A RHODE IS A A
PENN A A NEW JERSEY A A W VIRGINIA A A
MARYLAND A A DELAWARE A A VIRGINIA A A
N CAROLINA A A S CAROLINA A A GEORGIA N A
FL PNHDL N A FL PENIN A A AK N SLOPE A A
AK ALEUTIAN A A AK WESTERN A A AK INT BSN A A
AK S INT A A AK SO COAST N N AK PNHDL B B
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR JAN 12 - 18 2024
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON B A OREGON B A NRN CALIF B A
SRN CALIF B A IDAHO B A NEVADA B A
W MONTANA B A E MONTANA B A WYOMING B A
UTAH B A ARIZONA B A COLORADO B A
NEW MEXICO B A N DAKOTA B A S DAKOTA B A
NEBRASKA B A KANSAS B A OKLAHOMA B N
N TEXAS B N S TEXAS B N W TEXAS B N
MINNESOTA B A IOWA B A MISSOURI B A
ARKANSAS B N LOUISIANA B N WISCONSIN B A
ILLINOIS B A MISSISSIPPI B A MICHIGAN B A
INDIANA B A OHIO B A KENTUCKY B A
TENNESSEE B A ALABAMA N A NEW YORK A A
VERMONT A A NEW HAMP A A MAINE A A
MASS A A CONN A A RHODE IS A A
PENN N A NEW JERSEY A A W VIRGINIA N A
MARYLAND N A DELAWARE N A VIRGINIA N A
N CAROLINA N A S CAROLINA N A GEORGIA N A
FL PNHDL N A FL PENIN A A AK N SLOPE A A
AK ALEUTIAN A N AK WESTERN A N AK INT BSN N A
AK S INT N N AK SO COAST N N AK PNHDL B B
LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW B - BELOW
THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.
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