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FXUS06 KWBC 052002
PMDMRD
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD
300 PM EST FRI JANUARY 05 2024
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JAN 11 - 15 2024
TODAY'S MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE PREDICTED AMPLIFIED
500-HPA CIRCULATION PATTERN ACROSS NORTH AMERICA AND SURROUNDING REGIONS DURING
THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD. THE MANUAL 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND IS BASED ON THE 0Z
ENSEMBLE MEANS FROM THE GEFS, ECMWF, AND CANADIAN MODELS, WEIGHTING THE ECMWF
AND GEFS MODELS SLIGHTLY HIGHER DUE TO RECENT MODEL SKILL. AN AMPLIFIED RIDGE
AND ASSOCIATED POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES ARE FORECAST OVER THE NORTH
PACIFIC OCEAN EXTENDING NORTHWARD OVER ALASKA. A BROAD TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
NEGATIVE 500-HPA HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST OVER MOST OF THE CONTIGUOUS U.S. (CONUS),
WHILE RIDGING AND POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHTS ARE PREDICTED ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
ATLANTIC COAST. NEGATIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES ARE FORECAST CENTERED TO THE
NORTH OF HAWAII.
ENHANCED PROBABILITIES FOR BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED OVER THE
WESTERN CONUS AND MOST OF THE CENTRAL CONUS, DUE TO NEGATIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT
ANOMALIES AND MID-LEVEL TROUGHING OVER THE REGION. THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES
FOR BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES (IN EXCESS OF 90 PERCENT) ARE INDICATED OVER THE
NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS. ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY OVER THE EAST AND
PARTS OF SOUTH TEXAS, SUPPORTED BY THE REFORECAST-CONSOLIDATION TEMPERATURE
FORECAST TOOL. PROBABILITIES OF ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE INCREASED FOR
MOST OF ALASKA EXCLUDING THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN AREAS OF THE STATE, UNDER AN
AMPLIFIED RIDGE. BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA,
INCLUDING THE PANHANDLE, UNDER ANOMALOUS NORTHERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW. FOR HAWAII,
FORECAST TOOLS FAVOR BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER MOST OF THE ISLAND CHAIN,
INCLUDING KAUAI, OAHU, MAUI, AND NORTHWESTERN AREAS OF THE BIG ISLAND.
NEGATIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES, BROAD MID-LEVEL TROUGHING, AND CYCLONIC FLOW
ARE PREDICTED OVER MOST OF THE CONUS AND FAVOR ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION OVER
MUCH OF THE CONUS, EXCEPT FOR PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WHERE BELOW-NORMAL
PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED, CONSISTENT WITH THE GEFS AND ECMWF PRECIPITATION,
REFORECAST, AND CONSOLIDATION TOOLS. THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE-NORMAL
PRECIPITATION (IN EXCESS OF 60 PERCENT) ARE INDICATED OVER THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION AND PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST. IN ALASKA, ANOMALOUS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
FAVORS ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS AND MUCH OF
MAINLAND ALASKA, EXCLUDING THE SOUTH COAST AND SOUTHEAST ALASKA, WHERE
BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED BY MOST MODEL PRECIPITATION TOOLS.
ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR HAWAII IN TODAY’S 6-10 DAY OUTLOOK,
SUPPORTED BY INCREASED PROBABILITIES OF PRECIPITATION IN THE
REFORECAST-CONSOLIDATION TOOL.
THE OFFICIAL 6-10 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF 34% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 36% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 8, AND 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY
8
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: MUCH ABOVE AVERAGE, 5 OUT OF 5,
DUE TO GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG MODEL SOLUTIONS ON AN AMPLIFIED MID-LEVEL
CIRCULATION PATTERN AND AMONG TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION FORECAST TOOLS.
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JAN 13 - 19 2024
ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD PREDICT A FAIRLY PERSISTENT
500-HPA CIRCULATION PATTERN (SIMILAR TO THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD) ACROSS NORTH
AMERICA AND THE SURROUNDING REGIONS. AN AMPLIFIED RIDGE REMAINS OVER ALASKA,
BUT RETROGRESSES SLIGHTLY WESTWARD, WITH POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES
CENTERED OVER THE BERING SEA IN THE WEEK-2 PERIOD. A BROAD TROUGH CONTINUES TO
BE PREDICTED OVER THE CONUS, WITH NEGATIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES EXTENDING
FURTHER INTO THE EAST IN THE MANUAL BLEND. BELOW-AVERAGE 500-HPA HEIGHTS
CONTINUE TO BE PREDICTED TO THE NORTH OF HAWAII BY THE GEFS AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE
MEANS.
BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY OVER MOST OF THE CONUS, UNDER A PREDICTED
TROUGH AND NEGATIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES, WHILE NEAR- TO ABOVE-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD, SUPPORTED BY A CONSENSUS OF
THE MODEL TEMPERATURE FORECAST TOOLS. ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR
MOST OF MAINLAND ALASKA AND THE ALEUTIANS, WHILE BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
FAVORED FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA. IN HAWAII, PROBABILITIES OF BELOW-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE ENHANCED FOR KAUAI, AND ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED
FOR MAUI AND THE BIG ISLAND OF HAWAII, FOLLOWING THE TEMPERATURE CONSOLIDATION
TOOL.
GENERALLY ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED ACROSS MOST OF THE CONUS
(EXCEPT FOR PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS, WHERE BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION
PROBABILITIES ARE SLIGHTLY ENHANCED) BENEATH AN ACTIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT PATTERN,
AND SUPPORTED BY MOST MODEL PRECIPITATION TOOLS. THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES FOR
ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION (IN EXCESS OF 50 PERCENT) ARE FORECAST OVER PARTS OF
THE WEST AND SOUTHEAST, CONSISTENT WITH THE REFORECAST-CONSOLIDATION TOOL.
ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS SLIGHTLY FAVORED ACROSS NORTHERN MAINLAND ALASKA,
WHILE BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED IN CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MAINLAND
ALASKA AND FOR THE ALASKA PANHANDLE, CONSISTENT WITH A CONSENSUS OF
PRECIPITATION TOOLS. AFTER THE PASSAGE OF A POTENTIAL PRECIPITATION SYSTEM OVER
HAWAII, CHANCES OF BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION ARE SLIGHTLY ENHANCED ACROSS THE
ISLAND CHAIN, AS INDICATED BY THE PRECIPITATION CONSOLIDATION TOOL.
THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF: 34% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 36% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 11, AND 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON
DAY 11
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: MUCH ABOVE AVERAGE, 5 OUT OF 5,
DUE TO GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG MODEL SOLUTIONS ON AN AMPLIFIED CIRCULATION PATTERN
AND AMONG FORECAST TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TOOLS.
FORECASTER: D COLLINS
NOTES:
AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OCCASIONALLY MANUAL
INTERVENTION IS NECESSARY TO ADDRESS QUALITY CONTROL AND CONSISTENCY ISSUES. IN
THESE CASES, FORECASTS ARE MANUALLY DRAWN BUT A FULL DISCUSSION IS NOT ISSUED.
THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS THE SAME AS
THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW
THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER (ORANGE,
"A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N"). HISTORICAL AVERAGE
VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST (DASHES, "F"). LABELS ON THE
SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).
PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WETTER (GREEN,
"A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N"). HISTORICAL MEDIAN VALUES
FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST (DASHES, "INCHES"). LABELS ON THE
SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).
PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL BE A
GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY EVEN A NORMAL
(I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES
A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO
PRECIPITATION.
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1991-2020 BASE PERIOD MEANS AS REFERENCE IN
THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS.
THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON
JANUARY 18.
ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
19640113 - 19610103 - 19521225 - 19640102 - 19580106
ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
19521224 - 19640102 - 19510109 - 19610102 - 19580105
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR JAN 11 - 15 2024
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON B A OREGON B A NRN CALIF B A
SRN CALIF B A IDAHO B A NEVADA B A
W MONTANA B A E MONTANA B A WYOMING B A
UTAH B A ARIZONA B A COLORADO B A
NEW MEXICO B A N DAKOTA B A S DAKOTA B A
NEBRASKA B A KANSAS B A OKLAHOMA B A
N TEXAS B N S TEXAS B B W TEXAS B A
MINNESOTA B A IOWA B A MISSOURI B A
ARKANSAS B A LOUISIANA A A WISCONSIN B A
ILLINOIS B A MISSISSIPPI A A MICHIGAN N A
INDIANA N A OHIO A A KENTUCKY N A
TENNESSEE A A ALABAMA A A NEW YORK A A
VERMONT A A NEW HAMP A A MAINE A A
MASS A A CONN A A RHODE IS A A
PENN A A NEW JERSEY A A W VIRGINIA A A
MARYLAND A A DELAWARE A A VIRGINIA A A
N CAROLINA A A S CAROLINA A A GEORGIA A A
FL PNHDL A A FL PENIN A A AK N SLOPE A A
AK ALEUTIAN A N AK WESTERN A A AK INT BSN A A
AK S INT A B AK SO COAST A B AK PNHDL B B
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR JAN 13 - 19 2024
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON B A OREGON B A NRN CALIF B A
SRN CALIF B A IDAHO B A NEVADA B A
W MONTANA B A E MONTANA B A WYOMING B A
UTAH B A ARIZONA B A COLORADO B A
NEW MEXICO B A N DAKOTA B A S DAKOTA B A
NEBRASKA B A KANSAS B A OKLAHOMA B N
N TEXAS B B S TEXAS B N W TEXAS B N
MINNESOTA B A IOWA B A MISSOURI B A
ARKANSAS B N LOUISIANA B N WISCONSIN B A
ILLINOIS B A MISSISSIPPI B N MICHIGAN B A
INDIANA B A OHIO B A KENTUCKY B A
TENNESSEE B A ALABAMA B A NEW YORK N A
VERMONT N A NEW HAMP A A MAINE A A
MASS A A CONN N A RHODE IS A A
PENN N A NEW JERSEY N A W VIRGINIA B A
MARYLAND N A DELAWARE N A VIRGINIA N A
N CAROLINA N A S CAROLINA N A GEORGIA N A
FL PNHDL N A FL PENIN A A AK N SLOPE A A
AK ALEUTIAN A B AK WESTERN A B AK INT BSN A N
AK S INT N B AK SO COAST A B AK PNHDL B B
LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW B - BELOW
THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.
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