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FXUS06 KWBC 082022
PMDMRD
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD
300 PM EST MON JANUARY 08 2024
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JAN 14 - 18 2024
TODAY'S MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE PREDICTED AMPLIFIED
500-HPA CIRCULATION PATTERN ACROSS NORTH AMERICA AND SURROUNDING REGIONS DURING
THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD. THE MANUAL 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND IS BASED ON THE 0Z
ENSEMBLE MEANS FROM THE GEFS, ECMWF, AND CANADIAN MODELS, WEIGHTING THE ECMWF
AND GEFS MODELS SLIGHTLY HIGHER DUE TO RECENT MODEL SKILL. SPLIT MID-LEVEL FLOW
IS FORECAST OVER THE ALEUTIANS, WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO THE SOUTH AND A
RIDGE OVER THE BERING SEA. THE PREDICTED RIDGE OVER THE BERING SEA IS MORE
AMPLIFIED IN THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE MODEL SOLUTION THAN IN THE GEFS. AN AMPLIFIED,
NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED NEGATIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES ARE
FORECAST OVER MOST OF THE CONTIGUOUS U.S. (CONUS), WHILE POSITIVE 500-HPA
HEIGHT ANOMALIES ARE FORECAST ALONG THE WEST COAST IN THE GEFS ENSEMBLE MEAN
AND OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST IN THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEANS.
NEGATIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES ARE FORECAST CENTERED TO THE NORTH OF HAWAII.
BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHWEST, AND
PROBABILITIES FOR BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE MUCH ENHANCED OVER THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN CONUS, UNDER AN AMPLIFIED TROUGH, ORIENTED FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST. THE GREATEST PROBABILITIES FOR BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXCEED 90
PERCENT OVER MUCH OF THE INTERIOR OF THE EASTERN CONUS. ABOVE-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHWEST, UNDER POSITIVE MID-LEVEL
HEIGHT ANOMALIES.
THERE IS SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST FOR ALASKA, WITH GREATER
AMPLIFICATION OF A RIDGE OVER THE BERING SEA IN THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN, WHILE
THE GEFS ENSEMBLE MEAN PREDICTS NEGATIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES OVER MAINLAND
ALASKA AT THE START OF THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD AND A LESS AMPLIFIED RIDGE OVER THE
BERING SEA LATER IN THE PERIOD. ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE SLIGHTLY FAVORED
FOR WESTERN AREAS OF MAINLAND ALASKA AND FOR THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS, UNDER THE
MEAN MID-LEVEL RIDGE, WHILE BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE SLIGHTLY FAVORED FOR
THE EASTERN INTERIOR OF MAINLAND ALASKA AND SOUTHEAST ALASKA, UNDER ANOMALOUS
NORTHERLY FLOW. FOR HAWAII, THE AUTOMATED BLEND OF FORECAST TOOLS FAVORS
BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE NORTHWESTERN ISLAND OF KAUAI AND ABOVE-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR THE BIG ISLAND OF HAWAII.
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO THE WEST AND WESTERLY FLOW AT THE START OF THE 6-10 DAY
PERIOD SLIGHTLY FAVORS ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
AREAS OF MAINLAND ALASKA, WHILE BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR THE
EASTERN ALEUTIANS AND THE ALASKA PENINSULA, UNDER A PREDICTED RIDGE. CYCLONIC
MID-LEVEL FLOW AND A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING EASTWARD INTO THE NORTHWESTERN
CONUS DURING THE PERIOD FAVORS ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION FROM THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL GREAT
PLAINS. ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS SLIGHTLY FAVORED FROM THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES REGION EASTWARD ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST, AHEAD OF THE PREDICTED
TROUGH. ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST,
CONSISTENT WITH MOST DYNAMICAL PRECIPITATION TOOLS. BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION
IS FAVORED ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHWEST, UNDER POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT
ANOMALIES. NEAR-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST FOR HAWAII, CONSISTENT WITH A
BLEND OF MODEL FORECAST TOOLS.
THE OFFICIAL 6-10 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF 35% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 35% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 8, AND 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY
8
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: ABOVE AVERAGE, 4 OUT OF 5, DUE TO
GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG MODEL SOLUTIONS ON AN AMPLIFIED MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION
PATTERN AND AMONG TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION FORECAST TOOLS FOR THE CONUS,
OFFSET BY SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST FOR ALASKA.
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JAN 16 - 22 2024
ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD GENERALLY PREDICT A SIMILAR
500-HPA CIRCULATION PATTERN TO THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD ACROSS NORTH AMERICA AND THE
SURROUNDING REGIONS, WITH SOME EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE PATTERN OVER THE
CONUS. POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES PERSIST CENTERED TO THE NORTHWEST OF
MAINLAND ALASKA IN THE WEEK-2 PERIOD, BUT DIFFERENCES AMONG THE ECMWF, GEFS,
AND CANADIAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TOOLS CONTINUE. THE PREDICTED TROUGH
OVER THE CONUS PROGRESSES EASTWARD, WITH NEGATIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES OVER
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS. BELOW-AVERAGE 500-HPA HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO BE
CENTERED TO THE NORTH OF HAWAII IN THE GEFS AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS.
BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY OVER MOST OF THE EASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE
CONUS, FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND GREAT PLAINS EASTWARD, UNDER THE PREDICTED
TROUGH. ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY FOR MUCH OF THE WEST, UNDER RISING
MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS. WITH UNCERTAINTY AMONG THE MODEL TEMPERATURE FORECAST TOOLS,
NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST ACROSS MOST OF ALASKA. ABOVE-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS, UNDER A PREDICTED RIDGE.
BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA, INCLUDING THE
ALASKA PANHANDLE, UNDER ANOMALOUS NORTHEASTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW. ABOVE-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE SLIGHTLY FAVORED FOR SOUTHEASTERN ISLANDS OF MAUI AND THE BIG
ISLAND OF HAWAII, CONSISTENT WITH MODEL TEMPERATURE TOOLS.
THERE ARE INCREASING CHANCES OF ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION ACROSS MUCH OF THE
WESTERN CONUS, AS MODELS PREDICT A POTENTIAL STORM SYSTEM OFF OF THE PACIFIC
COAST, WITH SLIGHTLY ENHANCED PROBABILITIES OF ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION
EXTENDING AS FAR EASTWARD AS WESTERN AREAS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS. INCREASING
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE INCREASES THE CHANCES OF BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION OVER
MUCH OF THE INTERIOR EASTERN CONUS. SLIGHTLY ENHANCED PROBABILITIES OF
BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION EXTEND INTO THE SOUTHWEST, CONSISTENT WITH MOST
MODEL PRECIPITATION TOOLS. NEAR-NORMAL PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO BE FAVORED
FOR HAWAII, BY A BLEND OF MODEL PRECIPITATION TOOLS.
THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF: 35% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 35% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 11, AND 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON
DAY 11
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: ABOUT AVERAGE, 3 OUT OF 5, DUE TO
GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG MODEL SOLUTIONS ON THE OVERALL MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION
PATTERN, OFFSET BY WEAKER PROBABILITIES IN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TOOLS.
FORECASTER: D COLLINS
NOTES:
AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OCCASIONALLY MANUAL
INTERVENTION IS NECESSARY TO ADDRESS QUALITY CONTROL AND CONSISTENCY ISSUES. IN
THESE CASES, FORECASTS ARE MANUALLY DRAWN BUT A FULL DISCUSSION IS NOT ISSUED.
THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS THE SAME AS
THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW
THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER (ORANGE,
"A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N"). HISTORICAL AVERAGE
VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST (DASHES, "F"). LABELS ON THE
SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).
PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WETTER (GREEN,
"A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N"). HISTORICAL MEDIAN VALUES
FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST (DASHES, "INCHES"). LABELS ON THE
SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).
PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL BE A
GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY EVEN A NORMAL
(I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES
A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO
PRECIPITATION.
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1991-2020 BASE PERIOD MEANS AS REFERENCE IN
THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS.
THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON
JANUARY 18.
ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
19661228 - 19550121 - 19640112 - 19670105 - 19640105
ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
19661229 - 19640111 - 19550120 - 19670103 - 19881228
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR JAN 14 - 18 2024
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON B A OREGON B A NRN CALIF A A
SRN CALIF A N IDAHO B A NEVADA A N
W MONTANA B A E MONTANA B A WYOMING B A
UTAH N A ARIZONA N B COLORADO B A
NEW MEXICO B B N DAKOTA B A S DAKOTA B A
NEBRASKA B A KANSAS B N OKLAHOMA B N
N TEXAS B B S TEXAS B N W TEXAS B B
MINNESOTA B N IOWA B N MISSOURI B N
ARKANSAS B N LOUISIANA B N WISCONSIN B N
ILLINOIS B N MISSISSIPPI B N MICHIGAN B A
INDIANA B N OHIO B N KENTUCKY B N
TENNESSEE B N ALABAMA B A NEW YORK B A
VERMONT N A NEW HAMP N A MAINE N A
MASS N A CONN B N RHODE IS B A
PENN B N NEW JERSEY B N W VIRGINIA B N
MARYLAND B N DELAWARE B N VIRGINIA B N
N CAROLINA B N S CAROLINA B A GEORGIA B A
FL PNHDL B A FL PENIN B A AK N SLOPE N A
AK ALEUTIAN N B AK WESTERN A N AK INT BSN N A
AK S INT N N AK SO COAST N N AK PNHDL B N
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR JAN 16 - 22 2024
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON N A OREGON A A NRN CALIF A A
SRN CALIF A A IDAHO N A NEVADA A A
W MONTANA B A E MONTANA B A WYOMING B A
UTAH A A ARIZONA A N COLORADO A N
NEW MEXICO A N N DAKOTA B A S DAKOTA B N
NEBRASKA B N KANSAS B B OKLAHOMA B B
N TEXAS B B S TEXAS B N W TEXAS B N
MINNESOTA B N IOWA B B MISSOURI B B
ARKANSAS B B LOUISIANA B N WISCONSIN B N
ILLINOIS B B MISSISSIPPI B B MICHIGAN B N
INDIANA B B OHIO B B KENTUCKY B B
TENNESSEE B B ALABAMA B B NEW YORK B N
VERMONT B N NEW HAMP B N MAINE N N
MASS B N CONN B N RHODE IS B N
PENN B B NEW JERSEY B N W VIRGINIA B B
MARYLAND B B DELAWARE B N VIRGINIA B B
N CAROLINA B B S CAROLINA B N GEORGIA B N
FL PNHDL B N FL PENIN B A AK N SLOPE N N
AK ALEUTIAN N N AK WESTERN N N AK INT BSN N N
AK S INT N N AK SO COAST N N AK PNHDL B N
LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW B - BELOW
THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.
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