141
FXUS06 KWBC 112010
PMDMRD
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD
300 PM EST THU JANUARY 11 2024
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JAN 17 - 21 2024
TODAY'S MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE PREDICTED AMPLIFIED
500-HPA CIRCULATION PATTERN ACROSS NORTH AMERICA AND SURROUNDING REGIONS DURING
THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD. THE MANUAL 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND IS BASED ON THE 0Z
ENSEMBLE MEANS FROM THE GEFS, ECMWF, AND CANADIAN MODELS. SPLIT MID-LEVEL FLOW
IS FORECAST NEAR THE ALEUTIANS AND NORTH PACIFIC, WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO
THE SOUTH AND A RIDGE OVER THE BERING SEA. AN AMPLIFIED TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
NEGATIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES ARE FORECAST OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
CONTIGUOUS U.S. (CONUS), WHILE POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES ARE FORECAST
ROUGHLY WEST OF THE ROCKIES IN THE ENSEMBLE MEANS. NEGATIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT
ANOMALIES ARE FORECAST CENTERED TO THE NORTH OF HAWAII.
PROBABILITIES FOR BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE INDICATED FOR MUCH OF THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS, UNDER AN AMPLIFIED TROUGH. THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES
(>80%) COINCIDE WITH WHERE ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS SOUTH AND EAST FROM THE
GREAT PLAINS TO THE OHIO VALLEY. IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT OVER THE LAST SEVERAL
DAYS NOT ONLY HAVE THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES STEADILY SHIFTED EASTWARD, BUT
THEY HAVE BEEN SLOWLY DECLINING IN INTENSITY. ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
FAVORED ALONG THE WEST COAST WITH ONSHORE FLOW PREVAILING, AND HAVE SIMILARLY
BEEN EXPANDING EASTWARD FOR THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS.
THERE IS MORE UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST FOR ALASKA, WITH A WIDER RANGE OF
MODEL SOLUTIONS. ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR THE NORTH SLOPE,
WHILE NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR MOST OF THE REST OF THE STATE
GIVEN THE FORECAST UNCERTAINTY. A SLIGHT TILT TOWARDS ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES
IS BEGINNING TO BUILD INTO THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE AS WELL AS ONSHORE FLOW
BECOMES MORE ESTABLISHED. FOR HAWAII, THE AUTOMATED BLEND OF FORECAST TOOLS
FAVORS A TILT TOWARDS ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE NORTHWESTERN ISLAND OF
KAUAI AND HIGHER LIKELIHOOD OF ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE REST OF THE
STATE.
AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC MOVES CLOSER TO THE ALASKAN
COAST DURING THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD, BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION REMAINS FAVORED
FOR WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE, WHILE A TILT TOWARDS ABOVE-NORMAL
PRECIPITATION IS INDICATED FOR MUCH OF THE EASTERN HALF OF ALASKA AS WELL AS
THE PANHANDLE. CYCLONIC MID-LEVEL FLOW AND A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING
EASTWARD INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CONUS DURING THE PERIOD FAVORS ABOVE-NORMAL
PRECIPITATION ALONG THE WEST COAST AND ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST AS WELL AS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS WITH BUILDING
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTER OF THE COUNTRY. ABOVE-NORMAL
PRECIPITATION REMAINS FAVORED FOR PORTIONS OF FLORIDA WITH LINGERING STORMINESS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE EXITING TROUGH AND FOR SOUTH TEXAS AS RETURN FLOW BECOMES
ESTABLISHED LATE IN THE PERIOD. BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST FOR THE
BIG ISLAND OF HAWAII AND FOR THE REST OF THE STATE NEAR-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS
MOST LIKELY, CONSISTENT WITH A BLEND OF MODEL FORECAST TOOLS.
THE OFFICIAL 6-10 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF 33% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 34% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 8, AND 33% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY
8
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: ABOVE AVERAGE, 4 OUT OF 5, DUE TO
GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG MODEL SOLUTIONS ON AN AMPLIFIED MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION
PATTERN AND AMONG TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION FORECAST TOOLS FOR THE CONUS,
OFFSET BY SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST FOR ALASKA.
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JAN 19 - 25 2024
ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD GENERALLY PREDICT A SIMILAR
500-HPA CIRCULATION PATTERN TO THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD ACROSS NORTH AMERICA AND THE
SURROUNDING REGIONS, WITH SOME EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE PATTERN OVER THE
CONUS. POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES PERSIST CENTERED TO THE NORTHWEST OF
MAINLAND ALASKA IN THE WEEK-2 PERIOD, BUT DIFFERENCES AMONG THE ECMWF, GEFS,
AND CANADIAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TOOLS CONTINUE. THE PREDICTED TROUGH
OVER THE CONUS PROGRESSES EASTWARD, WITH NEGATIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES NOW
FORECAST OFF THE EAST COAST. BELOW-AVERAGE 500-HPA HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO BE
CENTERED TO THE NORTH OF HAWAII IN THE GEFS AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS.
BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY OVER MOST OF THE EASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE
CONUS, FROM THE GREAT PLAINS EASTWARD AS COLD AIR LINGERS FROM THE EARLIER
ARCTIC SURGE. ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY FOR MUCH OF THE CONUS WEST
OF THE ROCKIES UNDER RISING MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS. WITH UNCERTAINTY AMONG THE MODEL
TEMPERATURE FORECAST TOOLS, NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST ACROSS MOST
OF ALASKA, ALTHOUGH SOUTHEAST ALASKA TILTS TOWARDS ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES AS
PREVAILING FLOW BECOMES MORE ONSHORE. ENHANCED PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE INDICATED FOR HAWAIIAN ISLANDS, CONSISTENT WITH MODEL
TEMPERATURE TOOLS.
THERE ARE INCREASED CHANCES OF ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION ACROSS MUCH OF THE
CONUS RELATIVE TO THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD, AS RETURN FLOW OVER THE GREAT PLAINS
INCREASES AND ONSHORE FLOW AND STORMINESS CONTINUES ALONG THE WEST COAST. A
SLIGHT TILT TOWARDS BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION REMAINS OVER PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHERN PLAINS, OHIO VALLEY, AND MID-ATLANTIC UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF EXITING
HIGH SURFACE PRESSURE, WHILE NEAR-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS MOST LIKELY FOR
PORTIONS OF NEW ENGLAND AND LAKE-EFFECT-FAVORED LOCATIONS OF THE GREAT LAKES.
ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS SLIGHTLY FAVORED FOR MOST OF HAWAII EXCEPT FOR
THE BIG ISLAND, WHERE NEAR-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS LIKELIEST, CONSISTENT WITH
A BLEND OF MODEL PRECIPITATION TOOLS.
THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF: 33% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 34% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 11, AND 33% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON
DAY 11
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: ABOUT AVERAGE, 3 OUT OF 5, DUE TO
GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG MODEL SOLUTIONS ON THE OVERALL MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION
PATTERN, OFFSET BY WEAKER PROBABILITIES IN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TOOLS.
FORECASTER: DANIEL BARANDIARAN
NOTES:
AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OCCASIONALLY MANUAL
INTERVENTION IS NECESSARY TO ADDRESS QUALITY CONTROL AND CONSISTENCY ISSUES. IN
THESE CASES, FORECASTS ARE MANUALLY DRAWN BUT A FULL DISCUSSION IS NOT ISSUED.
THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS THE SAME AS
THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW
THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER (ORANGE,
"A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N"). HISTORICAL AVERAGE
VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST (DASHES, "F"). LABELS ON THE
SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).
PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WETTER (GREEN,
"A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N"). HISTORICAL MEDIAN VALUES
FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST (DASHES, "INCHES"). LABELS ON THE
SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).
PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL BE A
GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY EVEN A NORMAL
(I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES
A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO
PRECIPITATION.
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1991-2020 BASE PERIOD MEANS AS REFERENCE IN
THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS.
THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON
JANUARY 18.
ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
19750109 - 19811225 - 19881225 - 19510101 - 19720111
ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
19811225 - 19811230 - 19820120 - 19750111 - 19960122
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR JAN 17 - 21 2024
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON N A OREGON A A NRN CALIF A A
SRN CALIF A A IDAHO A A NEVADA A A
W MONTANA B A E MONTANA B A WYOMING B A
UTAH A N ARIZONA A N COLORADO B N
NEW MEXICO B B N DAKOTA B N S DAKOTA B A
NEBRASKA B N KANSAS B B OKLAHOMA B B
N TEXAS B B S TEXAS B A W TEXAS B B
MINNESOTA B B IOWA B B MISSOURI B B
ARKANSAS B B LOUISIANA B B WISCONSIN B B
ILLINOIS B B MISSISSIPPI B B MICHIGAN B N
INDIANA B B OHIO B B KENTUCKY B B
TENNESSEE B B ALABAMA B B NEW YORK B B
VERMONT B B NEW HAMP B B MAINE B B
MASS B B CONN B B RHODE IS B B
PENN B B NEW JERSEY B B W VIRGINIA B B
MARYLAND B B DELAWARE B B VIRGINIA B B
N CAROLINA B B S CAROLINA B B GEORGIA B B
FL PNHDL B B FL PENIN B A AK N SLOPE N A
AK ALEUTIAN N B AK WESTERN N B AK INT BSN N A
AK S INT N N AK SO COAST N A AK PNHDL N A
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR JAN 19 - 25 2024
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON A A OREGON A A NRN CALIF A A
SRN CALIF A A IDAHO A N NEVADA A A
W MONTANA A N E MONTANA N N WYOMING A N
UTAH A A ARIZONA A A COLORADO A A
NEW MEXICO A A N DAKOTA N N S DAKOTA B N
NEBRASKA B A KANSAS B A OKLAHOMA B A
N TEXAS B A S TEXAS B A W TEXAS B A
MINNESOTA N N IOWA B N MISSOURI B A
ARKANSAS B A LOUISIANA B A WISCONSIN N N
ILLINOIS B N MISSISSIPPI B A MICHIGAN N N
INDIANA B N OHIO B N KENTUCKY B N
TENNESSEE B N ALABAMA B A NEW YORK B N
VERMONT B N NEW HAMP B N MAINE N N
MASS B N CONN B B RHODE IS B B
PENN B B NEW JERSEY B B W VIRGINIA B B
MARYLAND B B DELAWARE B B VIRGINIA B B
N CAROLINA B N S CAROLINA B N GEORGIA B A
FL PNHDL B A FL PENIN B A AK N SLOPE N N
AK ALEUTIAN N N AK WESTERN N N AK INT BSN N N
AK S INT N A AK SO COAST N A AK PNHDL A A
LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW B - BELOW
THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.
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