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FXUS06 KWBC 122036
PMDMRD
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD
300 PM EST FRI JANUARY 12 2024
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JAN 18 - 22 2024
TODAY'S MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE PREDICTED AMPLIFIED
500-HPA CIRCULATION PATTERN ACROSS NORTH AMERICA AND SURROUNDING REGIONS DURING
THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD. THE MANUAL 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND IS BASED ON THE 0Z
ENSEMBLE MEANS FROM THE GEFS, ECMWF, AND CANADIAN MODELS. A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED
MID-LEVEL RIDGE ACCOMPANIED BY WELL ABOVE-NORMAL HEIGHTS IS FORECASTED OVER THE
BERING SEA, UNDERCUT BY A ZONALLY-ORIENTED TROUGH AND WELL BELOW-NORMAL HEIGHTS
OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC AND GULF OF ALASKA. FARTHER SOUTH OVER THE CONTIGUOUS
U.S. (CONUS), A MID-LEVEL RIDGE AND ABOVE-NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS ARE PREDICTED
FROM THE WEST COAST TO THE GREAT PLAINS, AND A MID-LEVEL TROUGH AND
BELOW-NORMAL HEIGHTS ARE DEPICTED FROM ABOUT THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY EASTWARD TO
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN. A LARGE, BLOCKING RIDGE PERSISTS OVER EASTERN
CANADA, CENTERED OVER BAFFIN ISLAND. NEGATIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES ARE
FORECAST JUST NORTHWEST OF HAWAII.
PROBABILITIES OF BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE INDICATED FOR THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN CONUS, UNDER AN AMPLIFIED TROUGH. THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES (>80%)
COINCIDE WITH WHERE ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS SOUTH AND EAST FROM THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE SOUTHEAST. ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED WEST
OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE, UNDER A MID-LEVEL RIDGE, WITH THE HIGHEST
PROBABILITIES (>70%) FAVORED FOR NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. THIS DIPOLE TEMPERATURE
ANOMALY PATTERN IS WELL SUPPORTED BY GEFS, ECENS (ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN) AND CMCE
(CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN) REFORECAST TEMPERATURES, NAEFS SHORT-TERM
BIAS-CORRECTED TEMPERATURES, AND STATISTICAL TEMPERATURE ANALOGS FROM THE
MANUAL BLEND. FOR THE ALASKA DOMAIN, THERE IS GREATER UNCERTAINTY IN THE
SURFACE TEMPERATURE ANOMALY PATTERN. THE CONSOLIDATED AND AUTOMATED TEMPERATURE
TOOLS SLIGHTLY FAVOR BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST AND
SOUTH-CENTRAL ALASKA, AND THE ALASKA PENINSULA. THE REFORECAST TEMPERATURE
TOOLS AGREE WITH THE FAVORED ANOMALOUS COLD TO VARYING DEGREES. A FEW OF THE
TOOLS FAVOR ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR FAR NORTHERN AND NORTHWESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE STATE, THOUGH THIS DOES NOT SEEM VERY LIKELY BASED ON THE
EXPECTATION OF NORTHERLY ANOMALOUS FLOW. A RELATIVELY SMALL AREA OF FAVORED
ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS INDICATED FOR THE FAR SOUTHERN PANHANDLE BASED ON
MANY OF THE TOOLS. FOR HAWAII, THE AUTOMATED BLEND OF FORECAST TOOLS FAVORS
INCREASED ODDS OF ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
THE 6-10 DAY PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK DEPICTS ENHANCED ODDS OF BELOW-NORMAL
PRECIPITATION FOR MOST OF THE EASTERN CONUS, ASSOCIATED WITH THE EXPECTED VERY
DRY ARCTIC AIR MASS. A WEAKENING BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS SOUTHERN FLORIDA
ENHANCES THE CHANCES FOR ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION THERE. ABOVE-NORMAL
PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FROM THE HIGH PLAINS REGION AND MUCH OF TEXAS WESTWARD
TO THE PACIFIC COAST CONSISTENT WITH ECENS AND CMCE REFORECAST PRECIPITATION
GUIDANCE, THOUGH THE GEFS COUNTERPART IS CONSIDERABLY DRIER OVER THE SOUTHWEST.
THE RELATIVELY WET FORECAST INDICATED FOR THE WEST IS ASSOCIATED WITH A LARGE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PREDICTED OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA, WITH SEVERAL WAVES OF
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED TO PUSH EASTWARD ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS. FOR SOUTHEAST
ALASKA, ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE INCREASED DUE TO ENHANCED
ONSHORE FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE LARGE STORM SYSTEM ANTICIPATED OVER THE GULF
OF ALASKA. BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR MOST OF WESTERN ALASKA DUE
TO EXPECTED NORTHERLY FLOW. IN HAWAII, THE CONSOLIDATION TOOL FAVORS
ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR THE NORTHWESTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE ISLAND CHAIN,
AND NEAR TO BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN THIRD OF THE
ARCHIPELAGO.
THE OFFICIAL 6-10 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF 33% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 34% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 8, AND 33% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY
8
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: ABOVE AVERAGE, 4 OUT OF 5, DUE TO
GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG MODEL SOLUTIONS ON AN AMPLIFIED MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION
PATTERN AND AMONG TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION FORECAST TOOLS FOR THE CONUS,
OFFSET BY SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST FOR ALASKA.
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JAN 20 - 26 2024
ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD GENERALLY PREDICT A
DE-AMPLIFICATION OF THE 500-HPA CIRCULATION PATTERN AND SIGNIFICANT EASTWARD
PROGRESSION OF THE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. OVER THE ALASKA DOMAIN, A
SLIGHT RETROGRESSION OF THE BERING SEA MID-LEVEL RIDGE IS PREDICTED, WHICH
ALLOWS THE UNDERCUTTING TROUGH (AND ASSOCIATED BELOW-NORMAL HEIGHTS) TO MOVE
ACROSS THE ALEUTIANS AND ADJACENT ALASKA PENINSULA. THE 0Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN
IS SLIGHTLY FASTER COMPARED TO THE OTHER MODELS IN THIS RESPECT, WHILE THE 6Z
GEFS IS THE SLOWEST. ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS, THE MANUAL HEIGHT BLEND DEPICTS
A MID-LEVEL RIDGE AND ABOVE-NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS. A VERY PROGRESSIVE PATTERN
IS FORECASTED EAST OF THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN STATES, WHERE THE FULL HEIGHT FIELD
DEPICTS BROAD BUT WEAKENING CYCLONIC CURVATURE, BUT ALSO THE RAPID
OVERSPREADING OF ABOVE-NORMAL HEIGHTS, IN PART RELATED TO AN EXPECTED SOUTHWARD
SHIFT OF THE BLOCKING HIGH OVER EASTERN CANADA. THE RAPID TRANSITIONING OF THE
MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION PATTERN ACROSS THE EASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE CONUS DOES
NOT MEAN THERE WILL BE A SIMILAR RAPID TRANSITION AT THE SURFACE, AS THE
DEPARTURE OF THE ANOMALOUSLY COLD AIR AT THE SURFACE IS EXPECTED TO TAKE
CONSIDERABLY LONGER. MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS OVER HAWAII ARE PREDICTED TO BE
NEAR-NORMAL DURING WEEK-2 ACROSS MUCH OF THE STATE.
BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED TO PERSIST INTO THE WEEK-2 PERIOD FROM
THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS EASTWARD TO THE ATLANTIC COAST, ASSOCIATED WITH
THE PREDICTED SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR. FROM THE PACIFIC COAST EASTWARD ACROSS THE
INTERMOUNTAIN REGION, ROCKIES, PORTIONS OF THE HIGH PLAINS AND MUCH OF THE
DAKOTAS, AND ACROSS THE ARROWHEAD OF MINNESOTA, ODDS FAVOR ABOVE-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES, CONSISTENT WITH THE CONSOLIDATION TOOL. FARTHER NORTH, ARCTIC
HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD ACROSS MOST OF ALASKA, WARRANTING SLIGHTLY
INCREASED ODDS FOR BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES DURING WEEK-2. AS WAS THE CASE
WITH THE EARLIER 6-10 DAY OUTLOOK, A SMALL AREA OF ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS
FAVORED OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN ALASKA PANHANDLE. ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURE
CHANCES ARE ALSO ELEVATED ACROSS THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS BASED ON THE ERF CON TOOL.
DURING WEEK-2, THERE ARE INCREASED CHANCES OF ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION ACROSS
MUCH OF THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN CONUS, AS RETURN FLOW OVER THE GREAT PLAINS
INCREASES AND ONSHORE FLOW AND STORMINESS CONTINUES ALONG THE WEST COAST. A
SLIGHT TILT TOWARDS BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS DEPICTED FROM EASTERN MONTANA
EASTWARD ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, GREAT LAKES, OHIO VALLEY,
MID-ATLANTIC REGION, AND NORTHEAST. THIS IS ASSOCIATED WITH RISING 500-HPA
HEIGHTS AS THE PERSISTENT BLOCKING RIDGE OVER EASTERN CANADA FINALLY SHIFTS
SOUTHWARD. IN ALASKA, A SLIGHT RETROGRESSION OF THE MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION
PATTERN IS PREDICTED. THEREFORE, A SLIGHT WESTWARD SHIFT IS ANTICIPATED IN THE
FAVORED BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION AREA OVER WESTERN ALASKA, AND THE FAVORED
ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION AREA OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST ALASKA.
ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE ENHANCED OVER MOST OF THE HAWAIIAN
ISLANDS BASED ON THE ERF CON TOOL.
THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF: 33% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 34% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 11, AND 33% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON
DAY 11
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: NEAR AVERAGE, 3 OUT OF 5, DUE TO
GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG MODEL SOLUTIONS ON THE OVERALL MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION
PATTERN, OFFSET BY WEAKER PROBABILITIES IN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TOOLS.
FORECASTER: ANTHONY A
NOTES:
AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OCCASIONALLY MANUAL
INTERVENTION IS NECESSARY TO ADDRESS QUALITY CONTROL AND CONSISTENCY ISSUES. IN
THESE CASES, FORECASTS ARE MANUALLY DRAWN BUT A FULL DISCUSSION IS NOT ISSUED.
THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS THE SAME AS
THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW
THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER (ORANGE,
"A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N"). HISTORICAL AVERAGE
VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST (DASHES, "F"). LABELS ON THE
SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).
PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WETTER (GREEN,
"A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N"). HISTORICAL MEDIAN VALUES
FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST (DASHES, "INCHES"). LABELS ON THE
SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).
PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL BE A
GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY EVEN A NORMAL
(I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES
A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO
PRECIPITATION.
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1991-2020 BASE PERIOD MEANS AS REFERENCE IN
THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS.
THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON
JANUARY 18.
ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
19590102 - 19820121 - 19750109 - 19960126 - 19881225
ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
19811225 - 19760103 - 19820120 - 19710107 - 19781226
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR JAN 18 - 22 2024
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON A A OREGON A A NRN CALIF A A
SRN CALIF A A IDAHO A A NEVADA A A
W MONTANA A A E MONTANA B N WYOMING N A
UTAH A A ARIZONA A A COLORADO A A
NEW MEXICO A A N DAKOTA B B S DAKOTA B B
NEBRASKA B N KANSAS B N OKLAHOMA B N
N TEXAS B N S TEXAS B A W TEXAS B A
MINNESOTA B B IOWA B B MISSOURI B B
ARKANSAS B B LOUISIANA B N WISCONSIN B B
ILLINOIS B B MISSISSIPPI B B MICHIGAN B B
INDIANA B B OHIO B B KENTUCKY B B
TENNESSEE B B ALABAMA B B NEW YORK B B
VERMONT B B NEW HAMP B B MAINE B B
MASS B B CONN B B RHODE IS B B
PENN B B NEW JERSEY B B W VIRGINIA B B
MARYLAND B B DELAWARE B B VIRGINIA B B
N CAROLINA B B S CAROLINA B B GEORGIA B B
FL PNHDL B B FL PENIN B N AK N SLOPE N N
AK ALEUTIAN N B AK WESTERN N B AK INT BSN N N
AK S INT N B AK SO COAST B N AK PNHDL B A
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR JAN 20 - 26 2024
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON A A OREGON A A NRN CALIF A A
SRN CALIF A A IDAHO A A NEVADA A A
W MONTANA A N E MONTANA A B WYOMING A N
UTAH A A ARIZONA A A COLORADO A A
NEW MEXICO A A N DAKOTA A B S DAKOTA N N
NEBRASKA N A KANSAS B A OKLAHOMA B A
N TEXAS B A S TEXAS B A W TEXAS N A
MINNESOTA N B IOWA N A MISSOURI B A
ARKANSAS B A LOUISIANA B A WISCONSIN N B
ILLINOIS B N MISSISSIPPI B A MICHIGAN N B
INDIANA B N OHIO B N KENTUCKY B N
TENNESSEE B A ALABAMA B A NEW YORK N B
VERMONT N B NEW HAMP N B MAINE N B
MASS N B CONN N B RHODE IS N B
PENN N B NEW JERSEY B B W VIRGINIA B N
MARYLAND B B DELAWARE B B VIRGINIA B N
N CAROLINA B N S CAROLINA B A GEORGIA B A
FL PNHDL B A FL PENIN B A AK N SLOPE B N
AK ALEUTIAN B N AK WESTERN B B AK INT BSN B N
AK S INT B A AK SO COAST N A AK PNHDL A A
LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW B - BELOW
THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.
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