198
FXUS01 KWBC 140824
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
323 AM EST SUN JAN 14 2024
VALID 12Z SUN JAN 14 2024 - 12Z TUE JAN 16 2024
..DANGEROUS COLD TEMPERATURES TO PERSIST ACROSS MUCH OF THE U.S
...SIGNIFICANT, IMPACTFUL WINTRY PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOP OVER THE
MID-SOUTH LATER TODAY...
...SIGNIFICANT WINTRY WEATHER WINDING DOWN OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST AND GREAT BASIN...
IN THE WAKE OF THE STRONG MIDWEST FRONTAL SYSTEM EARLIER THIS
WEEKEND, THE WEATHER STORY ACROSS MUCH OF THE LOWER 48 IS TIED TO
AN EXPANSIVE AREA OF ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SPILLING OUT OF THE
CANADIAN PRAIRIE, WHICH IS RESPONSIBLE FOR DANGEROUSLY COLD
TEMPERATURES EXTENDING FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ALL THE WAY INTO
THE RUST BELT. TO HIGHLIGHT JUST HOW INTENSE THIS OUTBREAK OF
ARCTIC AIR IS, OVER 95 MILLION CITIZENS FALL WITHIN A WIND CHILL
WARNING, ADVISORY, OR WATCH AS OF MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. SOME OF THE
COLDEST TEMPERATURES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS OUTBREAK MAY OCCUR
TODAY, WHERE BITTERLY COLD WIND CHILLS AS LOW AS 70 BELOW ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS MONTANA AND THE DAKOTAS. FURTHER SOUTH, WIND
CHILLS PLUMMETING BELOW MINUS 30 DEGREES WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE
ROCKIES, CENTRAL PLAINS, AND MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
UNFORTUNATELY, THE DANGEROUS COLD WEATHER COULD STICK AROUND FOR
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS REINFORCING COLD AIR PLUNGES THE FRONT
SOUTHWARD, WHICH COULD YIELD ADDITIONAL RECORD BREAKING,
DANGEROUSLY LOW TEMPERATURES OVER PARTS OF THE MIDWEST AND DEEP
SOUTH THROUGH MID-LATE NEXT WEEK.
BRUTAL COLD ASIDE, THE ARCTIC AIR IN PLACE WILL ALSO SET THE STAGE
FOR SIGNIFICANT WINTRY PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOP OVER THE MID-SOUTH
LATER TODAY WITH A MESS OF SNOW, SLEET, AND FREEZING RAIN ALL
EXPECTED. THROUGH TUESDAY, THE CURRENT FORECAST CALLS FOR 3-6
INCHES OF SNOWFALL OVER PORTIONS OF THE OZARKS INTO THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY, WITH A TENTH OF AN INCH OF ICE POSSIBLE FURTHER TO THE
SOUTH IN THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE PROLONGED NATURE OF
THIS EVENT COULD RESULT IN MODERATE TO MAJOR POTENTIAL WINTER
STORM IMPACTS OVER PARTS OF ARKANSAS, NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI, AND
WESTERN TENNESSEE, WHERE WINTER STORM WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT.
MEANWHILE TO THE NORTHEAST, THE ARCTIC BLAST WILL MAINTAIN HEAVY
LAKE EFFECT SNOWFALL DOWNWIND OF THE GREAT LAKES (FOCUSED OVER
WESTERN AND NORTHERN NEW YORK STATE), WHILE ALSO PRODUCING SNOW
SHOWERS OR SQUALLS OVER THE NORTHEAST AND NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC
TODAY.
OTHERWISE, THE SIGNIFICANT SNOW AND FREEZING RAIN OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST AND GREAT BASIN IS WINDING DOWN AND WILL SUBSIDE TODAY.
AFTER A SIGNIFICANT EPISODE OF FREEZING RAIN, SLEET, AND SNOW
YESTERDAY, CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE AS THE UPPER-TROUGH
RESPONSIBLE FOR THE PRECIPITATION PULLS AWAY TO THE EAST, WITH
MOST OF THE WINTER STORM WARNINGS OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND
WESTERN GREAT BASIN SET TO EXPIRE THIS MORNING. THE SAME SYSTEM
WILL PRODUCE HEAVY MOUNTAIN SNOWFALL IN UTAH AND WESTERN COLORADO
HOWEVER, WITH MODERATE TO MAJOR POTENTIAL WINTER STORM IMPACTS
EXPECTED TODAY IN THE TERRAIN AS SNOW LEVELS REMAIN ON THE FLOOR.
ASHERMAN
GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/BASICWX/BASICWX_NDFD.PHP
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