596
FXUS06 KWBC 162002
PMDMRD
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD
300 PM EST TUE JANUARY 16 2024
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JAN 22 - 26 2024
MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT TODAY SHOWING AN AMPLIFIED MID-LEVEL PATTERN
- SLIGHTLY MORE AMPLIFIED THAN YESTERDAY. A MEAN 500-HPA TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS
SOUTHWARD THROUGH MAINLAND ALASKA, WITH A CLOSED LOW OF ABOUT 516-DM CENTERED
NEAR THE ALEUTIANS AND A DOWNSTREAM MID-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS ACROSS WESTERN CANADA.
FARTHER EAST, THERE IS A DEEP MEAN TROUGH CENTERED OVER BAFFIN BAY WITH 500-HPA
HEIGHTS BELOW 492-DM AND AN AXIS EXTENDING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN
GREENLAND AND INTO THE NORTH ATLANTIC. THE GEFS, EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN, AND
CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN ALL SHOW 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES AVERAGING AT LEAST
30-DM BELOW NORMAL NEAR SOUTHERN GREENLAND. TO THE SOUTH ACROSS THE
MID-LATITUDES, A STRONG MEAN RIDGE COVERS MOST OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN CANADA
AND THE CONTIGUOUS U.S. (CONUS), WITH THE LARGEST POSITIVE MEAN 500-HPA
ANOMALIES CENTERED NEAR THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. THE GEFS AND THE EUROPEAN
ENSEMBLE MEAN DEPICT 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES EXCEEDING +24-DM IN THIS REGION
FOR THE 6 TO 10 DAY PERIOD AS A WHOLE. SUBNORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS ARE RESTRICTED
TO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS ASSOCIATED WITH A LOWER-LATITUDE TROUGH
WITH AN AXIS EXTENDING SOUTHWARD TOWARD CENTRAL MEXICO. THERE IS MORE
SEPARATION BETWEEN THIS FEATURE AND THE WESTERN CANADA MID-LEVEL RIDGE THAN
YESTERDAY IN MOST MODELS.
WITH MOST OF THE CONUS UNDER OR JUST UPSTREAM FROM A FLAT 500-HPA RIDGE,
ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED THROUGHOUT THE CONUS. ODDS FOR
SIGNIFICANTLY ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXCEED 80 PERCENT OVER THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND THE GREAT LAKES REGION, NEAR THE GREATEST 500-HPA HEIGHT
DEPARTURES. IN THE MEAN, ALL MODELS PLACE A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE NEAR OR JUST
EAST OF THE EAST COAST, WITH LOWER SURFACE PRESSURES IN THE SOUTHWEST NEAR THE
MID-LEVEL LOWER-LATITUDE TROUGH. THE EXPECTED PRESSURE GRADIENT WOULD CREATE A
MILD AND MOIST FLOW COMING INTO THE CONUS FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO AND ADJACENT
SUB-TROPICS NORTHWARD INTO A LARGE PART OF THE CONUS, THUS MOST OF THE CONUS
HAS ENHANCED CHANCES FOR ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION. THE STRONGEST INFLOW IS
EXPECTED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND SOUTHEAST, UPSTREAM FROM THE MID-LEVEL
TROUGH, AND THE COMBINATION OF STRONG MOISTURE INFLUX AND FAVORABLE MID-LEVEL
FLOW STRONGLY ENHANCES THE LIKELIHOOD OF ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IN THESE
AREAS, WITH CHANCES EXCEEDING 70 PERCENT. THE GEFS, EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN, AND
CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN ALL SHOW 3 TO 5 INCHES OF PRECIPITATION FALLING ALONG
AND NEAR THE CENTRAL GULF COAST DURING THE 6- TO 10-DAY PERIOD. SUBNORMAL
TOTALS ARE FAVORED ONLY IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS, WHICH IS FARTHEST AWAY FROM THE
STRONG LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE INFLUX.
ALASKA WILL BE DOMINATED BY SOUTHEAST-TO-NORTHWEST LOWER AND MID-LEVEL FLOW
ACROSS THE STATE, WITH AN ARCTIC SURFACE HIGH TO THE NORTH AND A MEAN SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH IN THE NORTH PACIFIC. THE ARCTIC HIGH
PRESSURE FAVORS BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS MOST OF THE STATE EXCEPT IN
SOUTHEASTERN SECTIONS, WHERE STRONG LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL BE FROM THE SOUTHEAST,
BRINGING IN MOIST, AND MILD AIR. THIS SET-UP ALSO FAVORS ABOVE-NORMAL
PRECIPITATION FROM SOUTHEASTERN AND SOUTH-CENTRAL ALASKA NORTHWARD TOWARD
EAST-CENTRAL ALASKA WHILE FARTHER WEST, THE EAST-TO-WEST FETCH WILL BE COMING
ACROSS A LONG STRETCH OF LAND, FAVORING BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION THERE.
MOST OF THE TOOLS FAVOR WETTER- AND WARMER-THAN-NORMAL WEATHER ACROSS HAWAII,
CONSISTENT WITH RELATIVELY LOW 500-HPA HEIGHTS TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF
THE STATE.
THE OFFICIAL 6-10 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF 35% OF TODAY'S GFS
SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 35% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 8, 20% OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 0Z ECMWF CENTERED ON DAY 8, AND
10% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: MUCH ABOVE AVERAGE, 5 OUT OF 5,
GIVEN UNUSUALLY GOOD AGREEMENT IN BOTH THE RAW MODEL OUTPUTS AND THE DERIVED
BIAS-CORRECTED AND REFORECAST TOOLS.
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JAN 24 - 30 2024
FOR WEEK-2, THE DETAILS OF THE MODEL SOLUTIONS DO NOT AGREE QUITE AS WELL AS
DURING THE 6 TO 10 DAY PERIOD, BUT ALL SHOW A SIMILAR MID-LEVEL PATTERN. THERE
IS A STRONG MEAN MID-LEVEL TROUGH OVER BAFFIN BAY, GREENLAND, AND SURROUNDING
AREAS WHILE ABOVE-NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST ACROSS MOST OF THE CONUS
AND CANADA. MODELS SHOW THE LARGEST POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT DEPARTURES
SOMEWHERE FROM THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES TO EAST OF THE GREAT LAKES.
TELECONNECTIONS TO THE STRONG TROUGH NEAR GREENLAND FAVOR A POSITIVE ANOMALY
CENTER FARTHER EAST, WHICH IS CLOSER TO THE GEFS SOLUTION, AND THIS IS THE
FAVORED SCENARIO AT THIS TIME. IN ANY CASE, ABOVE-NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS EXTEND
WESTWARD ACROSS MOST OF CANADA AND THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE CONUS TO A
SECONDARY RIDGE AXIS BUILDING FROM WESTERN CANADA INTO ALASKA. THE DEEP TROUGH
NEAR ALASKA IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT SOUTH AND DEAMPLIFY, RESULTING IN A MEAN FLAT
MID-LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC OCEAN. THUS, THE OTHER MODELS
HAVE SHIFTED CLOSER TO YESTERDAY’S GEFS, AWAY FROM A SOLUTION SHOWING A
FULL-LATITUDE RIDGE FROM NEAR HAWAII TO SIBERIA AND TOWARD A FLAT SWATH OF
BELOW-NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS JUST NORTH OF HAWAII, WHICH IS THE PREFERRED
SOLUTION AT THIS TIME. MEANWHILE, A WEAKENING MID-LEVEL TROUGH PERSISTS IN THE
SOUTHWEST, WITH AN AXIS NEAR THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND A SOMEWHAT POSITIVE
TILT, CLOSER TO YESTERDAY’S CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTION.
THE PREVAILING ABOVE-NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR ABOVE-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE CONUS, WITH THE GREATEST CHANCES OF OCCURRENCE
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES (OVER 70 PERCENT) COVERING THE GREAT LAKES, OHIO VALLEY,
AND MOST OF THE EASTERN CONUS. ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS ALSO FAVORED FOR
MOST OF THE CONUS, PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS, LOWER OHIO
VALLEY, AND ADJACENT SOUTHEAST, BUT THE FAVORABLE SET-UP FOR HEAVY
PRECIPITATION IN THIS REGION SHOULD BE SLOWLY WANING AS WEEK-2 PROGRESSES.
REFORECAST AND BIAS-CORRECTED TOOLS ALSO SLIGHTLY FAVOR SURPLUS PRECIPITATION
IN MUCH OF WASHINGTON STATE. MEANWHILE, SUBNORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FROM
THE NORTHERN PLAINS SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH MUCH OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND
CALIFORNIA.
WITH A SLOWLY WEAKENING FETCH OF AIR CROSSING ALASKA BETWEEN ARCTIC HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND LOWER SURFACE PRESSURES IN THE NORTH PACIFIC, WEEK-2
SHOULD FEATURE CONDITIONS SIMILAR TO THE 6- TO 10-DAY PERIOD, BUT WANING TOWARD
THE END OF JANUARY. WARMER AND WETTER CONDITIONS ARE FAVORED IN SOUTHEASTERN
PARTS OF THE STATE WHILE COLDER AND DRIER WEATHER IS FAVORED OVER MOST OF THE
WESTERN MAINLAND. CONDITIONS SHOULD BE CLOSER TO NORMAL ALONG MOST OF THE
ARCTIC COAST.
SUBNORMAL MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO THE NORTHWEST OF
HAWAII, WITH UNUSUALLY HIGH 500-HPA HEIGHTS TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF THE
ISLAND CHAIN. AS A RESULT, WARMER- AND WETTER-THAN-NORMAL CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE.
THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF: 25% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 20% OF TODAY'S GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 11, 15% OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 6Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 11, AND
40% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: ABOVE NORMAL, 3 OUT OF 5, FOR GOOD
OVERALL MODEL AGREEMENT, TEMPERED BY INCREASED UNCERTAINTY IN THE DETAILS OF
THE STRENGTH AND TIMING OF MID-LEVEL FEATURES, AND DIVERGING MODEL SOLUTIONS
LATE IN THE PERIOD.
FORECASTER: RICH TINKER
NOTES:
AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OCCASIONALLY MANUAL
INTERVENTION IS NECESSARY TO ADDRESS QUALITY CONTROL AND CONSISTENCY ISSUES. IN
THESE CASES, FORECASTS ARE MANUALLY DRAWN BUT A FULL DISCUSSION IS NOT ISSUED.
THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS THE SAME AS
THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW
THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER (ORANGE,
"A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N"). HISTORICAL AVERAGE
VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST (DASHES, "F"). LABELS ON THE
SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).
PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WETTER (GREEN,
"A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N"). HISTORICAL MEDIAN VALUES
FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST (DASHES, "INCHES"). LABELS ON THE
SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).
PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL BE A
GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY EVEN A NORMAL
(I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES
A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO
PRECIPITATION.
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1991-2020 BASE PERIOD MEANS AS REFERENCE IN
THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS.
THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON
JANUARY 18.
ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
19960130 - 19781227 - 19800125 - 19681228 - 19700102
ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
19800125 - 19700104 - 19681229 - 19781227 - 19960129
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR JAN 22 - 26 2024
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON A A OREGON A A NRN CALIF A A
SRN CALIF A A IDAHO A A NEVADA A A
W MONTANA A N E MONTANA A B WYOMING A A
UTAH A A ARIZONA A A COLORADO A A
NEW MEXICO A A N DAKOTA A B S DAKOTA A B
NEBRASKA A A KANSAS A A OKLAHOMA A A
N TEXAS A A S TEXAS A A W TEXAS A A
MINNESOTA A A IOWA A A MISSOURI A A
ARKANSAS A A LOUISIANA A A WISCONSIN A A
ILLINOIS A A MISSISSIPPI A A MICHIGAN A A
INDIANA A A OHIO A A KENTUCKY A A
TENNESSEE A A ALABAMA A A NEW YORK A A
VERMONT A A NEW HAMP A A MAINE A N
MASS A N CONN A A RHODE IS A N
PENN A A NEW JERSEY A A W VIRGINIA A A
MARYLAND A A DELAWARE A A VIRGINIA A A
N CAROLINA A A S CAROLINA A A GEORGIA A A
FL PNHDL A A FL PENIN A A AK N SLOPE B N
AK ALEUTIAN B N AK WESTERN B B AK INT BSN B N
AK S INT B A AK SO COAST B A AK PNHDL A A
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR JAN 24 - 30 2024
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON A A OREGON A N NRN CALIF A B
SRN CALIF A B IDAHO A N NEVADA A B
W MONTANA A N E MONTANA A B WYOMING A N
UTAH A B ARIZONA A A COLORADO A A
NEW MEXICO A A N DAKOTA A N S DAKOTA A N
NEBRASKA A A KANSAS A A OKLAHOMA A A
N TEXAS A A S TEXAS A A W TEXAS A A
MINNESOTA A A IOWA A A MISSOURI A A
ARKANSAS A A LOUISIANA A A WISCONSIN A A
ILLINOIS A A MISSISSIPPI A A MICHIGAN A A
INDIANA A A OHIO A A KENTUCKY A A
TENNESSEE A A ALABAMA A A NEW YORK A A
VERMONT A A NEW HAMP A A MAINE A A
MASS A A CONN A A RHODE IS A A
PENN A A NEW JERSEY A A W VIRGINIA A A
MARYLAND A A DELAWARE A A VIRGINIA A A
N CAROLINA A A S CAROLINA A A GEORGIA A A
FL PNHDL A A FL PENIN A A AK N SLOPE N N
AK ALEUTIAN N N AK WESTERN N N AK INT BSN N N
AK S INT A A AK SO COAST A A AK PNHDL A A
LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW B - BELOW
THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.
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