789
FXUS06 KWBC 182016
PMDMRD
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD
300 PM EST THU JANUARY 18 2024
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JAN 24 - 28 2024
MODELS REMAIN IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT TODAY SHOWING AN AMPLIFIED MID-LEVEL
PATTERN ACROSS THE FORECAST DOMAIN DURING THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD. THE MANUAL
HEIGHT BLEND SHOWS A NARROWING MEAN 500-HPA TROUGH AXIS THAT EXTENDS SOUTHWARD
THROUGH MAINLAND ALASKA, AND A MEAN RIDGE DEPICTED UPSTREAM OVER THE BERING
SEA, WITH MAXIMUM 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES AT LEAST +180 METERS ABOVE NORMAL. A
BROAD ANOMALOUS MID-LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS MUCH OF CANADA (MAXIMUM POSITIVE
HEIGHT ANOMALIES AT LEAST +240 METERS BETWEEN LAKE SUPERIOR AND JAMES BAY), ALL
BUT SOUTH-CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE CONTIGUOUS U.S. (CONUS), AND THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC OCEAN. NORTH AND EAST OF THIS WIDESPREAD AREA OF PREDICTED
ABOVE-NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS, A SIMILARLY SIZED AREA OF BELOW-NORMAL HEIGHTS
AND MID-LEVEL TROUGHING IS PREDICTED OVER MUCH OF THE ARCTIC OCEAN, FAR
NORTHERN CANADA, THE DAVIS STRAIT, GREENLAND AND ICELAND, AND A SIGNIFICANT
FRACTION OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN NORTH ATLANTIC OCEAN. MAXIMUM NEGATIVE
HEIGHT DEPARTURES OF -330 METERS ARE PREDICTED NEAR THE SOUTHERN TIP OF
GREENLAND. OVER THE CONUS, NEAR TO SUBNORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS ARE RESTRICTED TO
THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND SOUTHERN PLAINS, ASSOCIATED WITH A LOWER-LATITUDE
TROUGH THAT EXTENDS DEEP INTO MEXICO.
ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURE CHANCES ARE ELEVATED FOR MOST OF THE CONUS DURING THE
6-10 DAY PERIOD, BASED ON WIDESPREAD WELL ABOVE-NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS AND
MID-LEVEL RIDGING. THE LARGEST PROBABILITIES FAVORING ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ARE IN EXCESS OF 90 PERCENT FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION,
AND ALSO OVER A RELATIVELY SMALL AREA ENCOMPASSING PARTS OF NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
AND FAR SOUTHWESTERN OREGON. NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED OVER SOUTHERN
PARTS OF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AND ADJACENT WESTERN TEXAS. IN ALASKA, THE
PREDICTED MID-LEVEL TROUGH AND SURFACE ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE FAVORS BELOW-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES OVER MOST OF THE MAINLAND, KODIAK ISLAND, AND THE ALASKA
PENINSULA, WITH MAXIMUM PROBABILITIES FAVORING BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES (>70%)
LOCATED OVER FAR SOUTHWESTERN MAINLAND ALASKA. FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA, MOSTLY
NEAR TO ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED, BASED ON THE CONSOLIDATED AND
AUTOMATED TEMPERATURE FORECASTS. THE HAWAIIAN ERF-CON TOOL FAVORS ELEVATED
CHANCES OF ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MOST OF THE ISLANDS, EXCEPT FOR KAUAI,
WHERE NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED.
THE 6-10 DAY PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK FAVORS ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES
ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN CONUS, FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA EASTWARD TO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES, SUPPORTED BY THE VARIOUS
REFORECAST PRECIPITATION TOOLS. THIS AREA OF ELEVATED ABOVE-NORMAL
PRECIPITATION CHANCES IS ASSOCIATED WITH SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE STREAMING INTO
THE REGION FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC. ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE
ALSO ELEVATED OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN CONUS, ASSOCIATED WITH AND
IN ADVANCE OF, A PREDICTED MID-LEVEL TROUGH. THE GREATEST PROBABILITIES FOR
ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION EXCEED 70% OVER THE VICINITY OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY
AND EASTERN GULF COAST REGION, WHERE MAXIMUM LOW-LEVEL GULF MOISTURE INFLOW IS
ANTICIPATED. THIS WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF FAVORED ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS
ALSO BASED ON GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG NEARLY ALL OF THE PRECIPITATION FORECAST
TOOLS. AREAS OF FAVORED BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION ARE INDICATED OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS, SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA, AND ADJACENT PARTS OF THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST, IN AREAS OF PREDICTED MID-LEVEL RIDGING AND ABOVE-NORMAL HEIGHTS. IN
ALASKA, BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE ENHANCED OVER MOST OF THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE, ASSOCIATED WITH DRIER, NORTHERLY FLOW, AND
ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE INCREASED OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
STATE, NEAR AND AHEAD OF A MID-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS AND ENHANCED ONSHORE FLOW. FOR
HAWAII, ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE ELEVATED BASED ON THE ERF-CON
TOOL, AND ASSOCIATED WITH THE MOIST, SUBTROPICAL FLOW EXPECTED ACROSS THE
REGION.
THE OFFICIAL 6-10 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF 33% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 34% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 8, AND 33% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY
8
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: ABOVE AVERAGE, 4 OUT OF 5, GIVEN
GOOD AGREEMENT IN BOTH THE RAW MODEL OUTPUTS AND THE DERIVED BIAS-CORRECTED AND
REFORECAST TOOLS.
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JAN 26 - FEB 01, 2024
THE ANOMALOUS MID-LEVEL RIDGE FORECAST ACROSS THE BERING SEA DURING THE EARLIER
6-10 DAY PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO AMPLIFY ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE ARCTIC
OCEAN (EURASIAN SIDE) BY THE GEFS, EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN (ECENS), AND THE
CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN (CMCE) SOLUTIONS. PREDICTED MAXIMUM HEIGHT ANOMALIES
RANGE FROM +180 TO +210 METERS. DOWNSTREAM, ONLY A WEAK REMNANT OF AN ANOMALOUS
TROUGH IS INDICATED OVER/NEAR EASTERN ALASKA. EXPANSIVE POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT
ANOMALIES CONTINUE TO BE PREDICTED ACROSS MOST OF CANADA, MOST OF THE CONUS,
AND A LARGE PORTION OF THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. NEAR-NORMAL HEIGHTS ARE DEPICTED
OVER PARTS OF THE FAR SOUTHERN PLAINS OR WESTERN GULF COAST REGION BY THE
VARIOUS ENSEMBLE MEANS. DEEP ANOMALOUS TROUGHING AND WELL BELOW-NORMAL 500-HPA
HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO BE FORECAST ACROSS GREENLAND, ICELAND, THE DAVIS STRAIT,
AND A LARGE PORTION OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN NORTH ATLANTIC.
AS WAS THE CASE WITH THE EARLIER 6-10 DAY TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK, THE WEEK-2
TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK ALSO FAVORS MOST OF THE CONUS TO BE ABOVE-NORMAL.
PROBABILITIES FAVORING ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXCEED 70% OVER THE VICINITY
OF THE CAROLINAS, AND ALSO OVER MUCH OF CALIFORNIA AND ADJACENT PARTS OF
OREGON. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY NEARLY ALL TEMPERATURE TOOLS, AND IS CONSISTENT
WITH WIDESPREAD MID-LEVEL RIDGING AND WELL ABOVE-NORMAL MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS.
NEAR- NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED OVER SOUTHERN TEXAS. IN ALASKA,
BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURE CHANCES ARE INCREASED OVER MOST OF THE STATE, WITH A
RELATIVELY SMALL AREA OF FAVORED ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES INDICATED OVER THE
SOUTHERN PANHANDLE REGION. THE ERF-CON TOOL FAVORS ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES
FOR THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS DURING WEEK-2.
THE WEEK-2 PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK DEPICTS INCREASED CHANCES OF ABOVE-NORMAL
PRECIPITATION FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY,
SOUTHEAST, TENNESSEE AND OHIO VALLEYS, LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION, MID-ATLANTIC
REGION, AND MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST, WITH MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION EXPECTED TO
FALL DURING THE FIRST HALF OF WEEK-2. ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN CONUS,
ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION ODDS ARE ALSO INCREASED DUE TO ENHANCED SUBTROPICAL
MOISTURE FORECAST TO STREAM IN FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC. FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN
STATES INTO THE NORTH-CENTRAL CONUS, ODDS FOR BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION ARE
SLIGHTLY INCREASED, CONSISTENT WITH CONSOLIDATED AND AUTOMATED PRECIPITATION
GUIDANCE, STATISTICAL PRECIPITATION ANALOGS FROM THE MANUAL BLEND, AND
REFORECAST PRECIPITATION FROM THE GEFS AND ECENS MODELS. IN ALASKA, THE
PREDICTED UPSTREAM AMPLIFICATION OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN
INCREASED CHANCES OF BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION OVER APPROXIMATELY THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE STATE. A WEAKENING MID-LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED ONSHORE FLOW
LEADS TO SLIGHTLY ENHANCED CHANCES OF ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION OVER SOUTHEAST
ALASKA. AT LOWER LATITUDES, THE ERF-CON TOOL MOSTLY SUPPORTS ELEVATED
ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS DURING WEEK-2.
THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF: 33% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 34% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 11, AND 33% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON
DAY 11
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: ABOVE NORMAL, 4 OUT OF 5, DUE TO
OVERALL GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT REGARDING THE MEAN MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION AND
SURFACE TEMPERATURE PATTERNS, OFFSET SOMEWHAT BY INCREASED UNCERTAINTY AMONG
THE PRECIPITATION TOOLS.
FORECASTER: ANTHONY A
NOTES:
AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OCCASIONALLY MANUAL
INTERVENTION IS NECESSARY TO ADDRESS QUALITY CONTROL AND CONSISTENCY ISSUES. IN
THESE CASES, FORECASTS ARE MANUALLY DRAWN BUT A FULL DISCUSSION IS NOT ISSUED.
THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS THE SAME AS
THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW
THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER (ORANGE,
"A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N"). HISTORICAL AVERAGE
VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST (DASHES, "F"). LABELS ON THE
SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).
PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WETTER (GREEN,
"A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N"). HISTORICAL MEDIAN VALUES
FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST (DASHES, "INCHES"). LABELS ON THE
SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).
PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL BE A
GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY EVEN A NORMAL
(I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES
A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO
PRECIPITATION.
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1991-2020 BASE PERIOD MEANS AS REFERENCE IN
THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS.
THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON
FEBRUARY 15.
ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
19960201 - 19681230 - 19590117 - 19800126 - 19700104
ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
19590117 - 19800127 - 19960131 - 19681229 - 19700105
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR JAN 24 - 28 2024
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON A A OREGON A A NRN CALIF A A
SRN CALIF A B IDAHO A A NEVADA A A
W MONTANA A A E MONTANA A B WYOMING A N
UTAH A N ARIZONA A B COLORADO A A
NEW MEXICO A A N DAKOTA A B S DAKOTA A B
NEBRASKA A A KANSAS A A OKLAHOMA A A
N TEXAS A A S TEXAS A A W TEXAS A A
MINNESOTA A N IOWA A A MISSOURI A A
ARKANSAS A A LOUISIANA A A WISCONSIN A A
ILLINOIS A A MISSISSIPPI A A MICHIGAN A A
INDIANA A A OHIO A A KENTUCKY A A
TENNESSEE A A ALABAMA A A NEW YORK A A
VERMONT A A NEW HAMP A A MAINE A A
MASS A A CONN A A RHODE IS A A
PENN A A NEW JERSEY A A W VIRGINIA A A
MARYLAND A A DELAWARE A A VIRGINIA A A
N CAROLINA A A S CAROLINA A A GEORGIA A A
FL PNHDL A A FL PENIN A A AK N SLOPE B N
AK ALEUTIAN B B AK WESTERN B B AK INT BSN B A
AK S INT B B AK SO COAST B B AK PNHDL A A
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR JAN 26 - FEB 01, 2024
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON A A OREGON A A NRN CALIF A A
SRN CALIF A B IDAHO A A NEVADA A B
W MONTANA A A E MONTANA A N WYOMING A N
UTAH A B ARIZONA A B COLORADO A B
NEW MEXICO A N N DAKOTA A N S DAKOTA A B
NEBRASKA A N KANSAS A N OKLAHOMA A N
N TEXAS A N S TEXAS A A W TEXAS A A
MINNESOTA A N IOWA A N MISSOURI A N
ARKANSAS A N LOUISIANA A A WISCONSIN A N
ILLINOIS A N MISSISSIPPI A A MICHIGAN A N
INDIANA A N OHIO A A KENTUCKY A A
TENNESSEE A A ALABAMA A A NEW YORK A A
VERMONT A A NEW HAMP A A MAINE A N
MASS A A CONN A A RHODE IS A A
PENN A A NEW JERSEY A A W VIRGINIA A A
MARYLAND A A DELAWARE A A VIRGINIA A A
N CAROLINA A A S CAROLINA A A GEORGIA A A
FL PNHDL A A FL PENIN A N AK N SLOPE B N
AK ALEUTIAN B B AK WESTERN B B AK INT BSN B B
AK S INT B B AK SO COAST B N AK PNHDL N A
LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW B - BELOW
THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.
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