721
FXUS06 KWBC 192035
PMDMRD
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD
300 PM EST FRI JANUARY 19 2024
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JAN 25 - 29 2024
MODELS REMAIN IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT TODAY SHOWING AN AMPLIFIED MID-LEVEL
PATTERN ACROSS THE FORECAST DOMAIN DURING THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD. THE MANUAL
HEIGHT BLEND SHOWS A NARROWING MEAN 500-HPA TROUGH OVER MAINLAND ALASKA, AND A
MEAN RIDGE DEPICTED UPSTREAM OVER THE BERING SEA, WITH MAXIMUM 500-HPA HEIGHT
ANOMALIES AT LEAST +180 METERS ABOVE NORMAL. THIS RIDGE IS DISPLACED SLIGHTLY
NORTH OF ITS FORECAST POSITION YESTERDAY. A BROAD ANOMALOUS MID-LEVEL RIDGE
EXTENDS ACROSS MUCH OF CANADA (MAXIMUM POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES AT LEAST +210
METERS BETWEEN THE GREAT LAKES AND EASTERN MANITOBA), ALL BUT SOUTH-CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF THE CONTIGUOUS U.S. (CONUS), AND THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN. NORTH
AND EAST OF THIS WIDESPREAD AREA OF PREDICTED ABOVE-NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS, A
SIMILARLY SIZED AREA OF BELOW-NORMAL HEIGHTS AND MID-LEVEL TROUGHING IS
PREDICTED OVER MUCH OF THE ARCTIC OCEAN, FAR NORTHERN CANADA, THE DAVIS STRAIT,
GREENLAND AND ICELAND, AND A SIGNIFICANT FRACTION OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
NORTH ATLANTIC OCEAN. MAXIMUM NEGATIVE HEIGHT DEPARTURES OF -360 METERS ARE
PREDICTED NEAR THE SOUTHERN TIP OF GREENLAND. OVER THE CONUS, NEAR TO SUBNORMAL
500-HPA HEIGHTS ARE RESTRICTED TO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND SOUTHERN PLAINS,
ASSOCIATED WITH A LOWER-LATITUDE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS DEEP INTO MEXICO.
ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURE CHANCES ARE ELEVATED FOR MOST OF THE CONUS DURING THE
6-10 DAY PERIOD, BASED ON WIDESPREAD WELL ABOVE-NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS AND
MID-LEVEL RIDGING. THE LARGEST PROBABILITIES FAVORING ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ARE IN EXCESS OF 80 PERCENT FOR A LARGE FRACTION OF THE EAST, AND ALSO OVER A
RELATIVELY SMALL AREA ENCOMPASSING PARTS OF NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND FAR
SOUTHWESTERN OREGON. NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED OVER PARTS OF THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. IN ALASKA, THE PREDICTED MID-LEVEL TROUGH
AND SURFACE ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE FAVORS BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER THE
MAINLAND, KODIAK ISLAND, THE ALASKA PENINSULA, AND MOST OF THE ALEUTIANS, WITH
MAXIMUM PROBABILITIES FAVORING BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES (>80%) LOCATED OVER
FAR SOUTHWESTERN MAINLAND ALASKA. A MIX OF BELOW-, NEAR-, AND ABOVE-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA, BASED ON THE CONSOLIDATED AND
AUTOMATED TEMPERATURE FORECASTS. THE HAWAIIAN ERF-CON TOOL FAVORS ELEVATED
CHANCES OF ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE ISLAND CHAIN.
THE 6-10 DAY PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK FAVORS ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES
ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN CONUS, INCLUDING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND PARTS OF THE
NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION, SUPPORTED BY THE VARIOUS REFORECAST
PRECIPITATION TOOLS. THIS AREA OF ELEVATED ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES
IS ASSOCIATED WITH SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE STREAMING INTO THE REGION FROM THE
EASTERN PACIFIC. ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE ALSO ELEVATED OVER MUCH
OF THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN CONUS, ASSOCIATED WITH AND IN ADVANCE OF, A
PREDICTED MID-LEVEL TROUGH, AND A DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM. THE GREATEST
PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION EXCEED 50% OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGH
PLAINS REGION AND FROM THE EASTERN GULF COAST REGION UP INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC
REGION, WHERE MAXIMUM LOW-LEVEL GULF AND ATLANTIC MOISTURE INFLOW IS
ANTICIPATED. THIS WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF FAVORED ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS
ALSO BASED ON GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG NEARLY ALL OF THE PRECIPITATION FORECAST
TOOLS. AREAS OF FAVORED BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION ARE INDICATED OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND PARTS OF THE FAR SOUTHWEST (INCLUDING CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA), IN AREAS OF PREDICTED MID-LEVEL RIDGING AND ABOVE-NORMAL HEIGHTS.
IN ALASKA, BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE ENHANCED OVER MOST OF THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE, ASSOCIATED WITH DRIER, NORTHERLY FLOW, AND
ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE INCREASED OVER MOST OF THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE STATE, NEAR AND AHEAD OF A MID-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS AND ENHANCED ONSHORE
FLOW. FOR HAWAII, ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE ELEVATED BASED ON THE
ERF-CON TOOL, AND ASSOCIATED WITH THE MOIST, SUBTROPICAL FLOW EXPECTED ACROSS
THE REGION.
THE OFFICIAL 6-10 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF 33% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 34% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 8, AND 33% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY
8
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: ABOVE AVERAGE, 4 OUT OF 5, GIVEN
GOOD AGREEMENT IN BOTH THE RAW MODEL OUTPUTS AND THE DERIVED BIAS-CORRECTED AND
REFORECAST TOOLS.
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JAN 27 - FEB 02, 2024
THE ANOMALOUS MID-LEVEL RIDGE FORECAST ACROSS THE BERING SEA DURING THE EARLIER
6-10 DAY PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT SLIGHTLY WESTWARD INTO EASTERN SIBERIA
DURING WEEK-2. THE 6Z GEFS, 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN (ECENS) AND 0Z CANADIAN
ENSEMBLE MEAN (CMCE) SOLUTIONS PREDICT A SOMEWHAT WEAKER RIDGE TODAY COMPARED
TO YESTERDAY’S FORECAST, WITH THE MANUAL HEIGHT BLEND INDICATING MAXIMUM HEIGHT
ANOMALIES OF AT LEAST +120 METERS. A WEAK TROUGH IS FORECAST OVER ALASKA, WITH
PREDICTED NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES IN EXCESS OF -30 METERS OVER THE SOUTHERN
PORTION OF THE STATE. EXPANSIVE POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES CONTINUE TO
BE PREDICTED ACROSS MOST OF CANADA AND MOST OF THE CONUS. THE EXCEPTION IS THE
SOUTHEAST AND GULF COAST REGION, WHERE NOMINALLY POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES ARE
EXPECTED. MAXIMUM POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES IN EXCESS OF +150 METERS ARE
DEPICTED OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS AND ADJACENT SOUTHERN CANADIAN
PRAIRIES. THE ASSOCIATED MID-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS IS FORECAST OVER INTERIOR WESTERN
NORTH AMERICA. DEEP ANOMALOUS TROUGHING AND WELL BELOW-NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS
CONTINUE TO BE FORECAST ACROSS GREENLAND, ICELAND, THE DAVIS STRAIT/BAFFIN
ISLAND, AND A SIGNIFICANT PORTION OF THE FAR NORTHERN ATLANTIC.
AS WAS THE CASE WITH THE EARLIER 6-10 DAY TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK, THE WEEK-2
TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK ALSO FAVORS MOST OF THE CONUS TO BE ABOVE-NORMAL.
PROBABILITIES FAVORING ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXCEED 80% OVER MUCH OF
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND ADJACENT PARTS OF OREGON. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY NEARLY
ALL TEMPERATURE TOOLS, AND IS CONSISTENT WITH WIDESPREAD MID-LEVEL RIDGING AND
WELL ABOVE-NORMAL MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS. NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED OVER
SOUTHERN TEXAS. IN ALASKA, BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURE CHANCES ARE INCREASED OVER
MOST OF THE STATE, WITH A RELATIVELY SMALL AREA OF FAVORED ABOVE-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES INDICATED OVER THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE REGION CONSISTENT WITH
RELATIVELY MILD ONSHORE FLOW. THE ERF-CON TOOL FAVORS ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES
FOR THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS DURING WEEK-2.
THE WEEK-2 PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK DEPICTS INCREASED CHANCES OF ABOVE-NORMAL
PRECIPITATION FOR THE WEST COAST STATES, PERHAPS AS FAR SOUTH AS SOUTH-CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA. THIS REPRESENTS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE MORE BULLISH ECENS AND
CMCE REFORECAST PRECIPITATION TOOLS (WHICH FAVOR ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION
DOWN TO THE MEXICAN BORDER) AND THE LESS BULLISH GEFS REFORECAST TOOL (WHICH
FAVORS ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION NORTH OF SAN FRANCISCO). ABOVE-NORMAL
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE ALSO ELEVATED OVER SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE ROCKIES
AND HIGH PLAINS, ASSOCIATED WITH A NEARBY MID-LEVEL TROUGH. MOST PRECIPITATION
TOOLS ALSO FAVOR ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION OVER THE SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC
REGION. FOR MOST AREAS WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS, BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION
CHANCES ARE INCREASED, UNDER WIDESPREAD MID-LEVEL RIDGING AND ASSOCIATED
POSITIVE HEIGHT DEPARTURES. IN ALASKA, MODEST RETROGRESSION OF AN UPSTREAM
RIDGE OVER EASTERN SIBERIA TILTS THE ODDS TOWARD BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION
OVER WESTERN PARTS OF THE STATE, ASSOCIATED WITH DRIER NORTHERLY FLOW. A
SIMILAR WESTWARD SHIFT/EXPANSION IN THE FAVORED ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION AREA
FROM SOUTHEAST ALASKA INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL ALASKA IS ALSO ANTICIPATED DURING THE
PERIOD. AT LOWER LATITUDES, THE ERF-CON TOOL MOSTLY SUPPORTS ELEVATED
ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS DURING WEEK-2, WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF NEAR TO BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES FAVORED FOR THE BIG
ISLAND.
THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF: 33% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 34% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 11, AND 33% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON
DAY 11
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: ABOVE NORMAL, 4 OUT OF 5, DUE TO
OVERALL GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT REGARDING THE MEAN MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION AND
SURFACE TEMPERATURE PATTERNS, OFFSET SOMEWHAT BY INCREASED UNCERTAINTY AMONG
THE PRECIPITATION TOOLS.
FORECASTER: ANTHONY A
NOTES:
AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OCCASIONALLY MANUAL
INTERVENTION IS NECESSARY TO ADDRESS QUALITY CONTROL AND CONSISTENCY ISSUES. IN
THESE CASES, FORECASTS ARE MANUALLY DRAWN BUT A FULL DISCUSSION IS NOT ISSUED.
THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS THE SAME AS
THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW
THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER (ORANGE,
"A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N"). HISTORICAL AVERAGE
VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST (DASHES, "F"). LABELS ON THE
SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).
PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WETTER (GREEN,
"A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N"). HISTORICAL MEDIAN VALUES
FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST (DASHES, "INCHES"). LABELS ON THE
SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).
PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL BE A
GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY EVEN A NORMAL
(I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES
A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO
PRECIPITATION.
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1991-2020 BASE PERIOD MEANS AS REFERENCE IN
THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS.
THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON
FEBRUARY 15.
ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
19800128 - 19960201 - 19681230 - 19610128 - 19590117
ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
19800128 - 19681229 - 19590116 - 19610128 - 20040105
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR JAN 25 - 29 2024
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON A A OREGON A A NRN CALIF A B
SRN CALIF A B IDAHO A N NEVADA A B
W MONTANA A N E MONTANA A B WYOMING A B
UTAH A B ARIZONA A B COLORADO A N
NEW MEXICO N A N DAKOTA A B S DAKOTA A B
NEBRASKA A B KANSAS A A OKLAHOMA A A
N TEXAS A A S TEXAS N A W TEXAS A A
MINNESOTA A B IOWA A N MISSOURI A A
ARKANSAS A A LOUISIANA A A WISCONSIN A B
ILLINOIS A A MISSISSIPPI A A MICHIGAN A N
INDIANA A A OHIO A A KENTUCKY A A
TENNESSEE A A ALABAMA A A NEW YORK A A
VERMONT A A NEW HAMP A A MAINE A N
MASS A A CONN A A RHODE IS A A
PENN A A NEW JERSEY A A W VIRGINIA A A
MARYLAND A A DELAWARE A A VIRGINIA A A
N CAROLINA A A S CAROLINA A A GEORGIA A A
FL PNHDL A A FL PENIN A A AK N SLOPE B N
AK ALEUTIAN B B AK WESTERN B B AK INT BSN B B
AK S INT B B AK SO COAST B A AK PNHDL A A
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR JAN 27 - FEB 02, 2024
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON A A OREGON A A NRN CALIF A A
SRN CALIF A B IDAHO A B NEVADA A N
W MONTANA A B E MONTANA A B WYOMING A B
UTAH A B ARIZONA A B COLORADO A B
NEW MEXICO A A N DAKOTA A B S DAKOTA A B
NEBRASKA A B KANSAS A B OKLAHOMA A B
N TEXAS A N S TEXAS N A W TEXAS A A
MINNESOTA A B IOWA A B MISSOURI A B
ARKANSAS A B LOUISIANA A B WISCONSIN A B
ILLINOIS A B MISSISSIPPI A B MICHIGAN A B
INDIANA A B OHIO A B KENTUCKY A B
TENNESSEE A B ALABAMA A B NEW YORK A N
VERMONT A N NEW HAMP A N MAINE A N
MASS A N CONN A N RHODE IS A N
PENN A N NEW JERSEY A N W VIRGINIA A N
MARYLAND A N DELAWARE A N VIRGINIA A N
N CAROLINA A N S CAROLINA A N GEORGIA A N
FL PNHDL A N FL PENIN A N AK N SLOPE B N
AK ALEUTIAN B N AK WESTERN B N AK INT BSN B N
AK S INT B A AK SO COAST B A AK PNHDL A A
LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW B - BELOW
THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.
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