437
FXUS06 KWBC 232002
PMDMRD
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD
300 PM EST TUE JANUARY 23 2024
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JAN 29 - FEB 02, 2024
THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE DYNAMICAL MODELS REGARDING THE EVOLUTION OF
THE 500-HPA HEIGHTS ACROSS NORTH AMERICA AND SURROUNDING REGIONS TODAY. A VERY
STRONG AREA OF POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES IS FORECAST ACROSS CANADA AND
MUCH OF THE CONTIGUOUS U.S. (CONUS) DURING THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD. OFF THE WEST
COAST AND STRETCHING INTO ALASKA IS A VERY STRONG AREA OF NEGATIVE 500-HPA
HEIGHT ANOMALIES. A SECOND STRONG NEGATIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALY IS FORECAST
OVER GREENLAND WITH CPC TELECONNECTION TOOLS FORECASTING A STRONG POSITIVE
PHASE OF THE NORTH ATLANTIC OSCILLATION (NAO) DURING THE PERIOD. A TROUGH OFF
THE SOUTHERN ATLANTIC STATES IS BECOMING DEEPER AS THE PERIOD PROGRESSES OVER
THE ATLANTIC. IN HAWAII, POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES ARE FORECAST.
WITH STRONG POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES FORECAST ACROSS MUCH OF THE
CONUS, NEARLY THE ENTIRE LOWER-48 ARE LIKELY TO SEE ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES
DURING THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD. THE STRONGEST CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
TIER OF THE CONUS. NEAR- TO BELOW-NORMAL CONDITIONS ARE FAVORED ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE GULF COAST AND FLORIDA WHERE A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MAY BRING SLIGHTLY
COOLER CONDITIONS RELATIVE TO THE REST OF THE CONUS. ABOVE-NORMAL IS ALSO
STRONGLY FAVORED ACROSS HAWAII. THE EXCEPTION TO ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS
IN ALASKA. BELOW-NORMAL IS STRONGLY FAVORED IN WESTERN ALASKA AND ALEUTIAN
ISLANDS AS A STRONG TROUGH AND NORTHERLY FLOW BRING COLD CONDITIONS TO THE
REGION. HOWEVER, ABOVE NORMAL IS ONCE AGAIN FAVORED IN SOUTHEAST ALASKA.
DRY CONDITIONS ARE FAVORED ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY
DURING THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD AS STRONG RIDGING REMAINS ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE
EASTERN CONUS AHEAD OF A SURGE OF MOIST PACIFIC AIR. ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS A
TROUGH JUST OFF SHORE IS LIKELY TO PROMOTE STRONG ONSHORE FLOW INTO MUCH OF THE
WEST. THIS BRINGS INCREASED CHANCES FOR ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION TO THE
REGION EXCEEDING 70% ACROSS MUCH OF CALIFORNIA. AS THIS MOIST PACIFIC AIR
QUICKLY PROGRESSES INTO THE INTERIOR WEST, WETTER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORED FURTHER EAST INTO THE ROCKIES RELATIVE TO YESTERDAY. IN ALASKA,
ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED IN SOUTHEAST ALASKA, BUT THE COLD AND DRY
ARCTIC FLOW INTO WESTERN ALASKA LIMITS PRECIPITATION AND BELOW-NORMAL
PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED. NEAR TO BELOW-NORMAL IS FAVORED ACROSS THE HAWAIIAN
ISLANDS BELOW POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES.
THE OFFICIAL 6-10 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF 35% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 35% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 8, AND 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY
8
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: MUCH ABOVE-AVERAGE, 5 OUT 5, THERE
IS VERY GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG ALL THE MODEL TOOLS FOR MUCH OF THE COUNTRY.
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JAN 31 - FEB 06, 2024
AS WITH THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD, THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE WEEK-2 FORECAST
500-HPA HEIGHT PATTERN AMONG THE DYNAMICAL MODELS. THE PATTERN IS FORECAST TO
PROGRESS EASTWARD RELATIVE TO THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD, WITH STRONG POSITIVE 500-HPA
HEIGHT ANOMALIES FORECAST ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS, TROUGHING IN THE EAST
PACIFIC SHIFTS INLAND DURING THE WEEK-2 PERIOD ACROSS THE WEST. MEANWHILE, OVER
ALASKA, NEGATIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES REMAIN BUT ARE WEAKER RELATIVE TO
PRIOR FORECASTS. A POSITIVE NAO REMAINS FORECAST BUT IS WEAKENING RELATIVE TO
THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD. IN HAWAII, POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES ARE FORECAST.
ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES REMAIN FAVORED ACROSS THE CONUS DURING THE WEEK-2
PERIOD. THE STRONGEST PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. BUT MOST OF THE EASTERN CONUS IS STRONGLY FAVORED TO
SEE ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH STRONG RIDGING FIRMLY ESTABLISHED. WEAKER
CHANCES FOR ABOVE-NORMAL RELATIVE TO YESTERDAY AND THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD ARE
FORECAST ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS AS THE PACIFIC TROUGH PUSHES ONSHORE OF THE
WEST COAST BRINGING COOLER AIR WITH IT. FURTHERMORE, HEAVY PRECIPITATION IN THE
WEST MAY LIMIT DIURNAL HEATING. IN ALASKA, BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES REMAIN
FAVORED ACROSS THE MAINLAND. THE STRONGEST CHANCES (>60%) ARE FORECAST IN THE
SOUTHWESTERN MAINLAND WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES FAVORED IN
SOUTHEAST ALASKA. IN HAWAII, ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES REMAIN STRONGLY FAVORED
ACROSS THE ISLAND CHAIN.
THE PRECIPITATION FORECAST IS MORE COMPLICATED THAN THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST
DURING THE WEEK-2 PERIOD AS WARM, MOIST PACIFIC AIR ONCE AGAIN ENGULFS THE
CONUS. THE STRONGEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE ACROSS THE WEST COAST WHERE AN
ATMOSPHERIC RIVER EVENT IS FORECAST BRINGING GREATER THAN 70% CHANCES FOR
ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION TO MUCH OF CALIFORNIA AND ARIZONA. RELATIVE TO THE
6-10 DAY FORECAST, THERE ARE LOWER CHANCES FOR ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION
ACROSS PARTS OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AS THE ATMOSPHERIC RIVER IS FORECAST TO
BE FURTHER SOUTH BY THE WEEK-2 PERIOD. WHILE THE 6-10 DAY FORECAST ACROSS THE
PLAINS AND MISSISSIPPI VALLEY FAVOR BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION TODAY’S WEEK-2
PRECIPITATION FORECAST IS WETTER, BRINGING SLIGHT CHANCES FOR ABOVE-NORMAL
PRECIPITATION INTO THE REGION DUE TO QUICK TRANSITION TO A MOIST AIR MASS.
BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION REMAINS FAVORED ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND
MID-ATLANTIC AHEAD OF THE PUSH OF PACIFIC AIR. IN ALASKA, MUCH OF THE STATE IS
FAVORED TO SEE NEAR-NORMAL PRECIPITATION HOWEVER, PARTS OF THE SOUTH-CENTRAL
MAINLAND ARE SLIGHTLY FAVORED TO SEE ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION. IN HAWAII
BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS SLIGHTLY FAVORED FOR THE ISLANDS BENEATH POSITIVE
500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES.
THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF: 10% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 25% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED
ON DAY 11, 40% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, AND 25%
OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: ABOVE-AVERAGE, 4 OUT 5, VERY GOOD
AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODEL TOOLS ACROSS MUCH OF THE COUNTRY IS OFFSET BY THE
CHANGE IN PRECIPITATION PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS OCCURING DURING THE PERIOD.
FORECASTER: RYAN BOLT
NOTES:
AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OCCASIONALLY MANUAL
INTERVENTION IS NECESSARY TO ADDRESS QUALITY CONTROL AND CONSISTENCY ISSUES. IN
THESE CASES, FORECASTS ARE MANUALLY DRAWN BUT A FULL DISCUSSION IS NOT ISSUED.
THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS THE SAME AS
THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW
THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER (ORANGE,
"A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N"). HISTORICAL AVERAGE
VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST (DASHES, "F"). LABELS ON THE
SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).
PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WETTER (GREEN,
"A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N"). HISTORICAL MEDIAN VALUES
FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST (DASHES, "INCHES"). LABELS ON THE
SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).
PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL BE A
GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY EVEN A NORMAL
(I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES
A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO
PRECIPITATION.
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1991-2020 BASE PERIOD MEANS AS REFERENCE IN
THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS.
THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON
FEBRUARY 15.
ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
19970126 - 19670126 - 19540127 - 19710114 - 19800110
ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
19970125 - 19540127 - 19740114 - 19910131 - 19800111
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR JAN 29 - FEB 02, 2024
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON A A OREGON A A NRN CALIF A A
SRN CALIF A A IDAHO A A NEVADA A A
W MONTANA A N E MONTANA A N WYOMING A N
UTAH A A ARIZONA A A COLORADO A N
NEW MEXICO A A N DAKOTA A B S DAKOTA A B
NEBRASKA A N KANSAS A N OKLAHOMA A A
N TEXAS A A S TEXAS A A W TEXAS A A
MINNESOTA A B IOWA A B MISSOURI A B
ARKANSAS A B LOUISIANA A N WISCONSIN A B
ILLINOIS A B MISSISSIPPI A B MICHIGAN A B
INDIANA A B OHIO A B KENTUCKY A B
TENNESSEE A B ALABAMA N B NEW YORK A B
VERMONT A B NEW HAMP A B MAINE A B
MASS A B CONN A B RHODE IS A B
PENN A B NEW JERSEY A B W VIRGINIA A B
MARYLAND A B DELAWARE A B VIRGINIA A B
N CAROLINA A B S CAROLINA N B GEORGIA N B
FL PNHDL N B FL PENIN B B AK N SLOPE B A
AK ALEUTIAN B B AK WESTERN B B AK INT BSN B N
AK S INT B A AK SO COAST B A AK PNHDL A A
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR JAN 31 - FEB 06, 2024
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON N A OREGON N A NRN CALIF N A
SRN CALIF N A IDAHO A A NEVADA N A
W MONTANA A A E MONTANA A A WYOMING A A
UTAH A A ARIZONA A A COLORADO A A
NEW MEXICO A A N DAKOTA A A S DAKOTA A A
NEBRASKA A A KANSAS A A OKLAHOMA A A
N TEXAS A A S TEXAS A A W TEXAS A A
MINNESOTA A A IOWA A A MISSOURI A A
ARKANSAS A A LOUISIANA A A WISCONSIN A A
ILLINOIS A A MISSISSIPPI A A MICHIGAN A N
INDIANA A N OHIO A B KENTUCKY A N
TENNESSEE A N ALABAMA A A NEW YORK A B
VERMONT A B NEW HAMP A B MAINE A B
MASS A B CONN A B RHODE IS A B
PENN A B NEW JERSEY A B W VIRGINIA A B
MARYLAND A B DELAWARE A B VIRGINIA A B
N CAROLINA A N S CAROLINA A N GEORGIA A A
FL PNHDL A A FL PENIN A A AK N SLOPE B N
AK ALEUTIAN B N AK WESTERN B N AK INT BSN B N
AK S INT B N AK SO COAST B A AK PNHDL B N
LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW B - BELOW
THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.
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