112
FXUS01 KWBC 232038
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
338 PM EST TUE JAN 23 2024
VALID 00Z WED JAN 24 2024 - 00Z FRI JAN 26 2024
...HEAVY RAINFALL AND CONCERNS FOR FLASH FLOODING WILL EXIST
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...
...A SWATH OF FREEZING RAIN AND SOME ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL WILL
IMPACT PORTIONS OF THE MIDWEST, LOWER GREAT LAKES, AND THE
NORTHEAST...
...MUCH MILDER AIR WITH TEMPERATURES SURGING WELL ABOVE NORMAL CAN
BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK FOR MUCH OF THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE COUNTRY...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SUPPORTED BY
AN UPPER TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE SOUTHWEST WILL CONTINUE TO
PRODUCE HEAVY TO EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS, GULF COAST, LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND SOUTHEAST THROUGH MIDWEEK. TONIGHT, REPEAT
ROUNDS OF CONVECTION WILL PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL ALONG A
STATIONARY FRONT OVER PARTS OF THE ARKLATEX DOWN TO THE
TEXAS/LOUISIANA COAST. A MODERATE RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IS IN
EFFECT FOR AREAS INCLUDING EASTERN TEXAS, SOUTHERN ARKANSAS AND
NORTHWESTERN LOUISIANA FOR THIS EVENING. THE FINAL STORM OF THE
EVENING IS FORECAST TO ORGANIZE ON WEDNESDAY MORNING AND GENERATE
ADDITIONAL FLASH FLOODING IMPACTS OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST INTO
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. ANOTHER MODERATE RISK OF EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL IS IN EFFECT OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL LOUISIANA, CENTRAL
MISSISSIPPI AND NORTHWESTERN ALABAMA WHERE THIS ORGANIZED COMPLEX
OF STORMS WILL PRODUCE HIGH RAINFALL RATES AND POTENTIAL TRAINING
WITHIN A RICH MOISTURE ENVIRONMENT. A CONTINUOUS FETCH OF MOISTURE
WILL STREAM INTO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT, LEADING TO MORE FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS
FROM LOUISIANA TO SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA/SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY WHERE A
BROAD SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IS IN EFFECT.
ELSEWHERE, A DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SPREAD PACIFIC MOISTURE
ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHWEST LEADING TO COASTAL RAINFALL AND
MOUNTAIN SNOW FOR MUCH OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA BEGINNING TONIGHT.
TO THE NORTH OF THIS SYSTEM WARM AIR ADVECTION INTO THE MIDWEST
AND GREAT LAKES WILL PROMOTE FREEZING RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS FOR
THOSE AREAS TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY BEFORE SPREADING INTO THE
NORTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ARE
EXPECTED. THE AFOREMENTIONED WARM AIR ADVECTION CAUSED BY THE
EMERGING STORM SYSTEM IN THE GULF COAST/SOUTHEAST AND THE
DEEPENING UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST POWERING IT WILL PROMOTE A
SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND EAST COAST
THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. THERE WILL BE A LOT OF SNOW MELT
ACROSS THE MIDWEST, MID-ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST THIS WEEK WITH
HIGHS WELL INTO THE 40S AND 50S AND LOWS 40-50 DEGREES ABOVE
AVERAGE IN MANY PLACES. THESE ANOMALOUS LOW TEMPERATURES WILL
LIKELY BREAK MANY RECORDS, PARTICULARLY EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.
KEBEDE
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