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FXUS06 KWBC 242003
PMDMRD
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD
300 PM EST WED JANUARY 24 2024
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JAN 30 - FEB 03, 2024
THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE DYNAMICAL MODELS REGARDING THE EVOLUTION OF
THE 500-HPA HEIGHTS ACROSS NORTH AMERICA AND SURROUNDING REGIONS TODAY. A VERY
STRONG AREA OF POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES IS FORECAST ACROSS CANADA AND
MUCH OF THE CONTIGUOUS U.S. (CONUS) DURING THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD. A STRONG
MID-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST NEAR AND ALONG THE WEST COAST AND STRETCHING
ACROSS ALASKA AND OVER THE ARCTIC CIRCLE. A SECOND STRONG NEGATIVE 500-HPA
HEIGHT ANOMALY IS FORECAST OVER GREENLAND WITH CPC TELECONNECTION TOOLS
FORECASTING A STRONG POSITIVE PHASE OF THE NORTH ATLANTIC OSCILLATION (NAO)
DURING THE PERIOD. A TROUGH OFF THE EAST COAST IS BECOMING DEEPER RELATIVE TO
PREVIOUS FORECASTS OVER THE ATLANTIC. IN HAWAII, POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT
ANOMALIES ARE FORECAST WITH A STRONG MID-LEVEL JET NORTH OF THE ISLANDS.
WITH STRONG POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES FORECAST ACROSS MUCH OF THE
CONUS, NEARLY THE ENTIRE LOWER-48 ARE LIKELY TO SEE ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES
DURING THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD. THE STRONGEST CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS THE CENTER OF
THE CONUS. NEAR- TO BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
GULF COAST AND FLORIDA FURTHEST DISPLACED FROM THE POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES
CENTERED OVER CANADA. ALONG THE WEST COAST, ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES REMAIN
FAVORED BUT PROBABILITIES ARE WEAKER RELATIVE TO PRIOR FORECASTS WITH A TROUGH
OVER THE PACIFIC BEGINNING TO MOVE INLAND AT THE END OF THE PERIOD.
ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO STRONGLY FAVORED ACROSS HAWAII. THE
EXCEPTION TO ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS IN ALASKA. BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ARE STRONGLY FAVORED IN MAINLAND ALASKA AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS AS A STRONG
TROUGH AND NORTHERLY FLOW BRING COLD CONDITIONS TO THE REGION.
DRY CONDITIONS ARE FAVORED ACROSS AREAS EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER DURING
THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD AS STRONG RIDGING REMAINS ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE EASTERN
CONUS AHEAD OF A SURGE OF MOIST PACIFIC AIR. ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS A TROUGH
JUST OFF SHORE IS LIKELY TO PROMOTE STRONG ONSHORE FLOW INTO MUCH OF THE WEST.
THIS BRINGS INCREASED CHANCES FOR ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION
EXCEEDING 70% ACROSS MUCH OF CALIFORNIA. AS THIS MOIST PACIFIC AIR QUICKLY
PROGRESSES INTO THE INTERIOR WEST, WETTER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS ARE FAVORED
FURTHER EAST INTO THE ROCKIES AND GREAT PLAINS RELATIVE TO YESTERDAY. IN
ALASKA, ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS SLIGHTLY FAVORED IN SOUTHEAST ALASKA, BUT
THE COLD AND DRY ARCTIC FLOW INTO WESTERN ALASKA LIMITS PRECIPITATION AND
BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED IN WESTERN ALASKA. NEAR TO BELOW-NORMAL
PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED ACROSS THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS UNDERNEATH POSITIVE
500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES.
THE OFFICIAL 6-10 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF 10% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 25% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED
ON DAY 8, 35% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, AND 30%
OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: MUCH ABOVE-AVERAGE, 5 OUT OF 5,
THERE IS VERY GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG ALL THE MODEL TOOLS FOR MUCH OF THE COUNTRY.
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR FEB 01 - 07 2024
AS WITH THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD, THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE WEEK-2 FORECAST
500-HPA HEIGHT PATTERN AMONG THE DYNAMICAL MODELS. THE PATTERN IS FORECAST TO
PROGRESS EASTWARD RELATIVE TO THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD, WITH STRONG POSITIVE 500-HPA
HEIGHT ANOMALIES FORECAST ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS, AND TROUGHING IN THE EAST
PACIFIC SHIFTING INLAND ACROSS THE WEST. MEANWHILE, OVER ALASKA, NEGATIVE
500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES HAVE TRANSITIONED TO SLIGHTLY POSITIVE HEIGHT
ANOMALIES, BUT THERE IS A HIGH DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE HEIGHT PATTERN
ACROSS ALASKA. IN HAWAII, POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES ARE FORECAST.
ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES REMAIN FAVORED EAST OF THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS IN THE
CONUS DURING THE WEEK-2 PERIOD. THE STRONGEST PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES, BUT MOST OF THE EASTERN CONUS
IS STRONGLY FAVORED TO SEE ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH STRONG RIDGING FIRMLY
ESTABLISHED. BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST FOR PORTIONS OF THE WEST
COAST AS THE PACIFIC TROUGH PUSHES ONSHORE BRINGING A QUICK TRANSITION TO A
COOLER AIR MASS. IN ALASKA, BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES REMAIN FAVORED ACROSS THE
STATE BUT PROBABILITIES ARE REDUCED RELATIVE TO PRIOR FORECASTS OVER SOUTHWEST
ALASKA WITH A PATTERN CHANGE THAT MAY OCCUR EARLY IN THE WEEK-2 PERIOD.
REFORECAST TOOLS AND DAILY MODEL TEMPERATURE FORECASTS ARE IN DISAGREEMENT ON
HOW EARLY IN THE PERIOD THE AIR MASS MAY WARM. THE GEFS MAINTAINS COLD
TEMPERATURES LONGER, PARTICULARLY ACROSS WESTERN ALASKA, HOWEVER, THE ECMWF
ENSEMBLE FORECASTS WARMER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS BY THE MIDDLE OF THE PERIOD.
THE FORECAST TODAY FAVORS SLIGHTLY BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES BUT WILL NEED TO
BE MONITORED. IN HAWAII, ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES REMAIN STRONGLY FAVORED
ACROSS THE ISLAND CHAIN.
DURING WEEK-2, THE STRONGEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE ACROSS CALIFORNIA AND
THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS WHERE AN ATMOSPHERIC RIVER EVENT IS FORECAST TO BRING
GREATER THAN 70% CHANCES FOR ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION TO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
AND ARIZONA. IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST, NEAR-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED AS
THE ATMOSPHERIC RIVER EVENT IS LIKELY TO BE FURTHER SOUTH BY THE WEEK-2 PERIOD.
BY THE END OF THE PERIOD THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS FOR A DRYING TREND TO BEGIN
ACROSS THE WEST AND WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED GOING FORWARD. ABOVE-NORMAL
PRECIPITATION CHANCES CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS THE CONUS WITH ABOVE-NORMAL
CHANCES REACHING THE SOUTHEAST AND MISSISSIPPI VALLEY DURING THE WEEK-2 PERIOD
AS MOIST PACIFIC AIR PROGRESSES ACROSS THE CONUS. IN PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST,
RETURN FLOW OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO IS ALSO FORECAST TO PROVIDE A BOOST TO
PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THIS REGION. BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION REMAINS
FAVORED ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND MID-ATLANTIC AHEAD OF THE PUSH OF PACIFIC AIR
AND BENEATH STRONG POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES. IN ALASKA, MUCH OF THE
STATE IS FAVORED TO SEE NEAR-NORMAL PRECIPITATION. HOWEVER, PARTS OF THE
SOUTH-CENTRAL AND THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND ARE SLIGHTLY FAVORED TO SEE
ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION AS FORECAST TOOLS INDICATE AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPING ALONG THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS THAT MAY BRING SOME PRECIPITATION INTO
THIS REGION. BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS SLIGHTLY FAVORED OVER SOUTHEAST
ALASKA DUE TO REDUCED ONSHORE FLOW RELATIVE TO NORMAL. IN HAWAII BELOW-NORMAL
PRECIPITATION IS SLIGHTLY FAVORED FOR THE ISLANDS BENEATH POSITIVE 500-HPA
HEIGHT ANOMALIES.
THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF: 10% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 25% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED
ON DAY 11, 40% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, AND 25%
OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: ABOVE-AVERAGE, 4 OUT OF 5, VERY
GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODEL TOOLS ACROSS MUCH OF THE COUNTRY IS OFFSET BY
THE CHANGE IN PRECIPITATION PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS OCCURING DURING THE PERIOD.
FORECASTER: RYAN BOLT
NOTES:
AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OCCASIONALLY MANUAL
INTERVENTION IS NECESSARY TO ADDRESS QUALITY CONTROL AND CONSISTENCY ISSUES. IN
THESE CASES, FORECASTS ARE MANUALLY DRAWN BUT A FULL DISCUSSION IS NOT ISSUED.
THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS THE SAME AS
THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW
THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER (ORANGE,
"A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N"). HISTORICAL AVERAGE
VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST (DASHES, "F"). LABELS ON THE
SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).
PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WETTER (GREEN,
"A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N"). HISTORICAL MEDIAN VALUES
FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST (DASHES, "INCHES"). LABELS ON THE
SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).
PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL BE A
GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY EVEN A NORMAL
(I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES
A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO
PRECIPITATION.
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1991-2020 BASE PERIOD MEANS AS REFERENCE IN
THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS.
THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON
FEBRUARY 15.
ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
19970127 - 19910201 - 19860118 - 19670126 - 19530113
ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
19910201 - 19970126 - 19530114 - 19860118 - 19540127
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR JAN 30 - FEB 03, 2024
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON A A OREGON A A NRN CALIF A A
SRN CALIF A A IDAHO A A NEVADA A A
W MONTANA A A E MONTANA A A WYOMING A A
UTAH A A ARIZONA A A COLORADO A A
NEW MEXICO A A N DAKOTA A N S DAKOTA A A
NEBRASKA A A KANSAS A A OKLAHOMA A A
N TEXAS A A S TEXAS A A W TEXAS A A
MINNESOTA A B IOWA A B MISSOURI A N
ARKANSAS A N LOUISIANA A N WISCONSIN A B
ILLINOIS A B MISSISSIPPI A N MICHIGAN A B
INDIANA A B OHIO A B KENTUCKY A B
TENNESSEE A B ALABAMA A B NEW YORK A B
VERMONT A B NEW HAMP A B MAINE A B
MASS A B CONN A B RHODE IS A B
PENN A B NEW JERSEY A B W VIRGINIA A B
MARYLAND A B DELAWARE A B VIRGINIA A B
N CAROLINA A B S CAROLINA A B GEORGIA N B
FL PNHDL N B FL PENIN B B AK N SLOPE B N
AK ALEUTIAN B B AK WESTERN B N AK INT BSN B N
AK S INT B N AK SO COAST B N AK PNHDL B A
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR FEB 01 - 07 2024
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON B N OREGON B A NRN CALIF B A
SRN CALIF B A IDAHO B A NEVADA B A
W MONTANA N A E MONTANA A A WYOMING N A
UTAH N A ARIZONA B A COLORADO A A
NEW MEXICO N A N DAKOTA A A S DAKOTA A A
NEBRASKA A A KANSAS A A OKLAHOMA A A
N TEXAS A A S TEXAS A A W TEXAS A A
MINNESOTA A A IOWA A A MISSOURI A A
ARKANSAS A A LOUISIANA A A WISCONSIN A A
ILLINOIS A A MISSISSIPPI A A MICHIGAN A B
INDIANA A A OHIO A B KENTUCKY A N
TENNESSEE A N ALABAMA A A NEW YORK A B
VERMONT A B NEW HAMP A B MAINE A B
MASS A B CONN A B RHODE IS A B
PENN A B NEW JERSEY A B W VIRGINIA A B
MARYLAND A B DELAWARE A B VIRGINIA A B
N CAROLINA A B S CAROLINA A N GEORGIA A N
FL PNHDL A A FL PENIN A A AK N SLOPE B N
AK ALEUTIAN B N AK WESTERN B N AK INT BSN B N
AK S INT B N AK SO COAST B N AK PNHDL B B
LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW B - BELOW
THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.
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