661
FXUS06 KWBC 252013
PMDMRD
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD
300 PM EST THU JANUARY 25 2024
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JAN 31 - FEB 04, 2024
THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE DYNAMICAL MODELS REGARDING THE EVOLUTION OF
THE 500-HPA HEIGHTS ACROSS NORTH AMERICA AND SURROUNDING REGIONS TODAY. A VERY
STRONG AREA OF POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES IS FORECAST ACROSS EASTERN
CANADA AND MUCH OF THE CONTIGUOUS U.S. (CONUS) DURING THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD. A
STRONG MID-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST NEAR AND ALONG THE WEST COAST. A TROUGH OFF
THE EAST COAST HAS DEEPENED FURTHER OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC, RELATIVE TO
YESTERDAY’S 6-10 DAY OUTLOOK. SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS IN ALASKA, POSITIVE
MID-LEVEL HEIGHT ANOMALIES HAVE INCREASED AND EXPANDED IN COVERAGE. IN HAWAII,
POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES ARE FORECAST WITH A STRONG MID-LEVEL JET
NORTH OF THE ISLANDS. HOWEVER, THE ABOVE NORMAL MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS OVER HAWAII
ARE FORECAST TO WEAKEN DURING THE PERIOD.
WITH STRONG POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES FORECAST ACROSS MUCH OF THE
NORTHERN AND EASTERN CONUS, MOST OF THE LOWER 48 STATES ARE LIKELY TO SEE
ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES DURING THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD. THE STRONGEST CHANCES OF
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE CENTERED OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST. ALONG THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE MEAN RIDGE OVER CANADA AND THE NORTHERN CONUS, MEAN
MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS TRANSITION TO BECOME MORE NEAR AND BELOW NORMAL, DUE TO THE
EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC AND THE DEEPENING
TROUGH OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC. THEREFORE, NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ARE FAVORED WHERE NEGATIVE MID-LEVEL HEIGHT ANOMALIES ARE STRONGEST OVER THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA. ALONG THE WEST COAST, NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED
WITH A MID-LEVEL TROUGH PROGRESSING INLAND DURING THE PERIOD. OVER THE NORTH
PACIFIC, POSITIVE MEAN 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES FAVOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
IN THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ALEUTIANS. CONVERSELY, NEGATIVE MEAN MID-LEVEL
HEIGHT ANOMALIES FAVOR ENHANCED PROBABILITIES OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER
THE REST OF ALASKA. IN HAWAII, ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FROM OAHU
EASTWARD TO THE BIG ISLAND, UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE EAST OF THE ISLANDS.
DRY CONDITIONS ARE FAVORED EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER DURING THE 6-10 DAY
PERIOD, UNDERNEATH MEAN SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. FORECAST TOOLS ARE MIXED A BIT
ACROSS FLORIDA, BUT ODDS TILT TOWARD ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION. A TROUGH JUST
OFFSHORE OF THE WEST COAST IS LIKELY TO PROMOTE STRONG ONSHORE FLOW INTO MUCH
OF THE WEST. THIS BRINGS INCREASED CHANCES FOR ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION TO
THE REGION EXCEEDING 70% ACROSS MUCH OF CALIFORNIA AND EXTENDING INTO THE GREAT
BASIN AND FOUR CORNERS. AS THIS MOIST PACIFIC AIR QUICKLY PROGRESSES INTO THE
INTERIOR WEST, WETTER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS ARE FAVORED EASTWARD TO THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. IN ALASKA, ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED IN
THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS, UNDERNEATH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. HOWEVER, BELOW NORMAL
PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED ALONG CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH COAST, TO THE
NORTHWEST OF MEAN SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IN THE GULF OF ALASKA. NEAR NORMAL
PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED ACROSS THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS, AS THE PATTERN IS
FORECAST TO BECOME MORE ZONAL (FLATTER) DURING THE PERIOD.
THE OFFICIAL 6-10 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF 50% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, AND 50% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 8
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: ABOVE AVERAGE, 4 OUT OF 5, DUE TO
GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT, OFFSET BY UNCERTAINTY IN THE EVOLUTION OF THE MID-LEVEL
HEIGHT PATTERN AND THE FORECAST PRECIPITATION FIELDS OVER ALASKA.
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR FEB 02 - 08 2024
AS WITH THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD, THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE WEEK-2 FORECAST
500-HPA HEIGHT PATTERN AMONG THE DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE. THE PATTERN IS
FORECAST TO PROGRESS EASTWARD RELATIVE TO THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD. BROAD MEAN
TROUGHING IS FAVORED IN THE EAST PACIFIC SHIFTING INLAND INTO THE WEST. IN
ADDITION, THE MEAN TROUGH OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC HAS INTENSIFIED, COMPARED TO
YESTERDAY’S WEEK-2 OUTLOOK. WITH THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE WESTERN TROUGH
AXIS AND THE DEEPENING OF THE TROUGH OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC, STRONG POSITIVE
500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES HAVE SHIFTED NORTHWARD OVER THE EASTERN CONUS AND ARE
FAVORED ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL CONUS, WITH NEAR TO BELOW
NORMAL MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS FORECAST ALONG THE GULF COAST. OVER ALASKA, POSITIVE
HEIGHT ANOMALIES HAVE CONTINUED TO INCREASE SINCE YESTERDAY’S WEEK-2 OUTLOOK.
IN HAWAII, POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES ARE FORECAST EARLY ON IN WEEK-2,
BUT ARE LIKELY TO DIMINISH THROUGHOUT TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD DUE TO THE
STRONG SUBTROPICAL JET TO THE NORTH OF THE ISLANDS.
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED ACROSS THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS,
WITH THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES (GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT) ACROSS CALIFORNIA,
ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD, STRONG MID-LEVEL TROUGH SHIFTING EASTWARD.
ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED EAST OF THE ROCKIES, UNDERNEATH
PREDOMINANTLY POSITIVE MID-LEVEL HEIGHT ANOMALIES AND SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. IN
ALASKA, BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES REMAIN FAVORED ACROSS MUCH OF THE STATE WITH
THE STRONGEST PROBABILITIES IN SOUTHEAST ALASKA AND THE SOUTH-CENTRAL MAINLAND.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED ACROSS MUCH OF THE ALEUTIANS, UNDERNEATH
SOUTHERLY FLOW. SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINS REGARDING THE TIMING OF THE WARM UP IN
ALASKA. IN HAWAII, ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES REMAIN FAVORED ACROSS THE ISLAND
CHAIN, BUT HAVE WEAKENED SINCE YESTERDAY’S WEEK-2 OUTLOOK, AS A MEAN RIDGE TO
THE EAST IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN DURING THE PERIOD.
ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED ACROSS MUCH OF THE WESTERN CONUS,
ASSOCIATED WITH TROUGHING MOVING INTO THE WEST COAST AND BRINGING WITH IT A LOT
OF PACIFIC MOISTURE. AHEAD OF THE MEAN TROUGH OVER THE WEST, STORM SYSTEMS ARE
FAVORED TO DEVELOP EAST OF THE ROCKIES, ENHANCING ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION
CHANCES ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS AND MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. ABOVE NORMAL
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ALSO EXTEND INTO THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF COAST
STATES, AS MEAN SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO SHIFT NORTHEASTWARD DURING
THE PERIOD, OPENING UP THE POTENTIAL FOR A MORE ACTIVE STORM TRACK TOWARD THE
END OF THE PERIOD. UNDER GREATER INFLUENCE OF THE MEAN SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE,
BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS. IN ALASKA,
ABOVE NORMAL MID-LEVEL HEIGHT ANOMALIES OVER WESTERN ALASKA AND TROUGHING TO
THE WEST FAVOR INCREASED SOUTHERLY FLOW AND ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION ACROSS
THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS AND THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND. SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW MAY
PROMOTE DOWNSLOPE, DRY FLOW ALONG THE NORTH SLOPE, WARRANTING A TILT IN THE
ODDS TOWARD BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION. IN THE ALASKA PANHANDLE, WEAK MID-LEVEL
FLOW FAVORS BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION, WHICH EXTENDS SOUTHWARD TO WESTERN
WASHINGTON. IN HAWAII, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST OFF TO THE NORTH OF
THE ISLANDS DURING MUCH OF THE PERIOD, LEADING TO A TILT IN THE ODDS TOWARD
BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION FROM OAHU EASTWARD TO THE BIG ISLAND.
THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF: 50% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, AND 50% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 11
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: AVERAGE, 3 OUT OF 5, DUE TO DECENT
MODEL AGREEMENT, OFFSET BY UNCERTAINTY IN THE EVOLUTION OF THE OVERALL PATTERN,
PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS.
FORECASTER: ADAM HARTMAN
NOTES:
AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OCCASIONALLY MANUAL
INTERVENTION IS NECESSARY TO ADDRESS QUALITY CONTROL AND CONSISTENCY ISSUES. IN
THESE CASES, FORECASTS ARE MANUALLY DRAWN BUT A FULL DISCUSSION IS NOT ISSUED.
THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS THE SAME AS
THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW
THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER (ORANGE,
"A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N"). HISTORICAL AVERAGE
VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST (DASHES, "F"). LABELS ON THE
SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).
PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WETTER (GREEN,
"A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N"). HISTORICAL MEDIAN VALUES
FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST (DASHES, "INCHES"). LABELS ON THE
SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).
PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL BE A
GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY EVEN A NORMAL
(I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES
A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO
PRECIPITATION.
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1991-2020 BASE PERIOD MEANS AS REFERENCE IN
THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS.
THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON
FEBRUARY 15.
ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
19860118 - 19910206 - 19910201 - 19530113 - 19680119
ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
19910201 - 19910206 - 19860118 - 19530113 - 19670125
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR JAN 31 - FEB 04, 2024
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON A A OREGON N A NRN CALIF N A
SRN CALIF N A IDAHO A A NEVADA A A
W MONTANA A A E MONTANA A A WYOMING A A
UTAH A A ARIZONA A A COLORADO A A
NEW MEXICO A A N DAKOTA A A S DAKOTA A A
NEBRASKA A A KANSAS A A OKLAHOMA A A
N TEXAS A A S TEXAS A A W TEXAS A A
MINNESOTA A N IOWA A A MISSOURI A A
ARKANSAS A A LOUISIANA A N WISCONSIN A B
ILLINOIS A B MISSISSIPPI A N MICHIGAN A B
INDIANA A B OHIO A B KENTUCKY A B
TENNESSEE A B ALABAMA A B NEW YORK A B
VERMONT A B NEW HAMP A B MAINE A B
MASS A B CONN A B RHODE IS A B
PENN A B NEW JERSEY A B W VIRGINIA A B
MARYLAND A B DELAWARE A B VIRGINIA A B
N CAROLINA A B S CAROLINA A B GEORGIA A B
FL PNHDL N N FL PENIN B A AK N SLOPE B N
AK ALEUTIAN B N AK WESTERN B N AK INT BSN B N
AK S INT B N AK SO COAST B B AK PNHDL B N
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR FEB 02 - 08 2024
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON B N OREGON B A NRN CALIF B A
SRN CALIF B A IDAHO B A NEVADA B A
W MONTANA B A E MONTANA N A WYOMING N A
UTAH B A ARIZONA B A COLORADO N A
NEW MEXICO B A N DAKOTA A A S DAKOTA A A
NEBRASKA A A KANSAS A A OKLAHOMA A A
N TEXAS A A S TEXAS A A W TEXAS A A
MINNESOTA A A IOWA A A MISSOURI A A
ARKANSAS A A LOUISIANA A A WISCONSIN A A
ILLINOIS A A MISSISSIPPI A A MICHIGAN A B
INDIANA A N OHIO A B KENTUCKY A N
TENNESSEE A N ALABAMA A A NEW YORK A B
VERMONT A B NEW HAMP A B MAINE A B
MASS A B CONN A B RHODE IS A B
PENN A B NEW JERSEY A B W VIRGINIA A B
MARYLAND A B DELAWARE A B VIRGINIA A B
N CAROLINA A N S CAROLINA A N GEORGIA A A
FL PNHDL A A FL PENIN N A AK N SLOPE B N
AK ALEUTIAN A N AK WESTERN B A AK INT BSN B N
AK S INT B N AK SO COAST B N AK PNHDL B B
LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW B - BELOW
THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.
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