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FXUS06 KWBC 262002
PMDMRD
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD
300 PM EST FRI JANUARY 26 2024
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR FEB 01 - 05 2024
THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG TODAY’S DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE REGARDING THE
EVOLUTION OF THE 500-HPA HEIGHTS ACROSS NORTH AMERICA AND SURROUNDING REGIONS.
A VERY STRONG AREA OF POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES IS FORECAST ACROSS
EASTERN CANADA AND MUCH OF THE NORTHERN CONTIGUOUS U.S. (CONUS) DURING THE 6-10
DAY PERIOD. A STRONG MID-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST NEAR AND ALONG THE WEST
COAST. A TROUGH CENTERED OFF THE EAST COAST HAS DEEPENED FURTHER OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC, RELATIVE TO YESTERDAY’S 6-10 DAY OUTLOOK. SOUTH OF THE
ALEUTIANS IN ALASKA, POSITIVE MID-LEVEL HEIGHT ANOMALIES HAVE INCREASED AND
EXPANDED IN COVERAGE AND NOW EXTENDS TO THE TROPICS. IN HAWAII, POSITIVE
500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES ARE FORECAST.
WITH STRONG POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES FORECAST ACROSS MUCH OF THE
NORTH-CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN CONUS, MUCH OF THE LOWER 48 STATES ARE LIKELY TO
SEE ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES DURING THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD. THE STRONGEST CHANCES
OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE CENTERED OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST. HOWEVER,
ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE MEAN RIDGE OVER CANADA AND THE NORTHERN
CONUS, MEAN MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS TRANSITION TO BECOME MORE NEAR AND BELOW NORMAL,
DUE TO THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC AND
THE DEEPENING TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THEREFORE, NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED WHERE NEGATIVE MID-LEVEL HEIGHT ANOMALIES ARE
STRONGEST OVER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST. ALONG THE WEST COAST AND EXTENDING
INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST, BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED, ASSOCIATED
WITH A MID-LEVEL TROUGH PROGRESSING INLAND DURING THE PERIOD. OVER THE NORTH
PACIFIC, POSITIVE MEAN 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES FAVOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
IN THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ALEUTIANS. CONVERSELY, NEGATIVE MEAN MID-LEVEL
HEIGHT ANOMALIES FAVOR PROBABILITIES OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER MUCH OF
THE ALASKA MAINLAND AND THE PANHANDLE. IN HAWAII, ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
FAVORED FROM OAHU EASTWARD TO THE BIG ISLAND, UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
MID-LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE.
DRY CONDITIONS ARE FAVORED EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER DURING THE 6-10 DAY
PERIOD, UNDERNEATH MEAN SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. THE EXCEPTION IS THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND GULF COAST, WHERE ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED,
ASSOCIATED WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR STORM SYSTEMS TO DEVELOP EAST OF THE ROCKIES
AND MOVE EASTWARD. A TROUGH JUST OFFSHORE OF THE WEST COAST IS LIKELY TO
PROMOTE STRONG ONSHORE FLOW INTO MUCH OF THE WEST. THIS BRINGS INCREASED
CHANCES FOR ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION EXCEEDING 70% ACROSS MUCH
OF CALIFORNIA AND EXTENDING INTO THE GREAT BASIN AND FOUR CORNERS. AS THIS
MOIST PACIFIC AIR PROGRESSES INTO THE INTERIOR WEST, WETTER THAN NORMAL
CONDITIONS ARE FAVORED EASTWARD TO THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. IN ALASKA,
ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED ACROSS THE WESTERN MAINLAND AND THE
ALEUTIANS, UNDERNEATH SOUTHERLY FLOW. HOWEVER, BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS
FAVORED FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN MAINLAND AND THE PANHANDLE, UNDERNEATH MID-LEVEL
HIGH PRESSURE. NEAR NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED ACROSS THE HAWAIIAN
ISLANDS, AS THE PATTERN IS FORECAST TO BE MORE ZONAL (FLATTER) DURING THE
PERIOD.
THE OFFICIAL 6-10 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF 50% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, AND 50% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 8
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: ABOVE AVERAGE, 4 OUT OF 5, DUE TO
GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT, OFFSET BY UNCERTAINTY IN THE EVOLUTION OF THE MID-LEVEL
HEIGHT PATTERN IN THE EASTERN CONUS.
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR FEB 03 - 09 2024
AS WITH THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD, THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE WEEK-2 FORECAST
500-HPA HEIGHT PATTERN AMONG THE DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE. THE PATTERN IS
FORECAST TO PROGRESS SLIGHTLY EASTWARD RELATIVE TO THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD. BROAD
MEAN TROUGHING IS FAVORED IN THE EAST PACIFIC SHIFTING INLAND INTO THE WEST. IN
ADDITION, THE PREDICTED MEAN TROUGH OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC HAS CONTINUED TO
INTENSIFY OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS. WITH THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE WESTERN
TROUGH AXIS AND THE DEEPENING OF THE TROUGH OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC, STRONG
POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES HAVE CONTINUED TO SHIFT NORTHWARD OVER THE
EASTERN CONUS AND ARE FAVORED ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL CONUS,
WITH NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS FORECAST ALONG THE GULF COAST AND
SOUTHEAST. OVER ALASKA, POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES ARE FORECAST ACROSS THE
MAINLAND AND MOST OF THE PANHANDLE, WITH NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS
FAVORED OVER THE ALEUTIANS, ASSOCIATED WITH A MEAN TROUGH OVER THE NORTHWEST
PACIFIC. IN HAWAII, POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES ARE FORECAST.
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED ACROSS THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS,
WITH THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES (GREATER THAN 70 PERCENT) ACROSS SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA AND THE DESERT SOUTHWEST, ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD, STRONG MID-LEVEL
TROUGH SHIFTING EASTWARD. ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED EAST OF THE
ROCKIES, UNDERNEATH PREDOMINANTLY POSITIVE MID-LEVEL HEIGHT ANOMALIES AND
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. THE EXCEPTION IS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA, WHERE BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE WEAKLY FAVORED, ASSOCIATED WITH NEGATIVE MID-LEVEL HEIGHT
ANOMALIES. IN ALASKA, BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED ACROSS MUCH OF THE
EASTERN MAINLAND AND INTO THE PANHANDLE, WHERE A COLD AIR MASS IS FORECAST TO
GRADUALLY MODERATE DURING THE PERIOD. CONVERSELY, ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
FAVORED ACROSS MUCH OF THE ALEUTIANS, ASSOCIATED WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW. IN
HAWAII, ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES REMAIN FAVORED ACROSS THE ISLAND CHAIN, AS
THE FLOW IS FORECAST TO BECOME MORE SOUTHWESTERLY AS MEAN MID-LEVEL HIGH
PRESSURE RETROGRADES WESTWARD DURING THE PERIOD.
ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED ACROSS MUCH OF THE WESTERN TWO-THIRDS OF
THE CONUS, ASSOCIATED WITH TROUGHING MOVING INTO THE WEST COAST AND BRINGING
WITH IT A LOT OF PACIFIC MOISTURE. AHEAD OF THE MEAN TROUGH OVER THE WEST,
STORM SYSTEMS ARE FAVORED TO DEVELOP EAST OF THE ROCKIES, ENHANCING ABOVE
NORMAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS AND MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES ALSO EXTEND INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS, AS
MEAN SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO SHIFT NORTHEASTWARD DURING THE
PERIOD, OPENING UP THE POTENTIAL FOR A MORE ACTIVE STORM TRACK. UNDER GREATER
INFLUENCE OF THE MEAN SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE, BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS
FAVORED ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS. IN ALASKA, ABOVE NORMAL MID-LEVEL HEIGHT
ANOMALIES OVER MAINLAND ALASKA AND TROUGHING TO THE WEST FAVOR INCREASED
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE ALEUTIANS AND THE
WESTERN MAINLAND. IN THE ALASKA PANHANDLE, WEAK MID-LEVEL FLOW FAVORS BELOW
NORMAL PRECIPITATION, WHICH EXTENDS SOUTHWARD TO WESTERN WASHINGTON. IN HAWAII,
MID-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO SHIFT WESTWARD AND CONNECT WITH A RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC, LEADING TO A TILT IN THE ODDS TOWARD
BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION FROM MAUI EASTWARD TO THE BIG ISLAND. HOWEVER, THE
POSITIONING OF THIS FEATURE INCREASES SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW A BIT OVER THE WESTERN
ISLANDS, FAVORING NEAR NORMAL PRECIPITATION.
THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF: 45% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, AND 55% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 11
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: AVERAGE, 3 OUT OF 5, DUE TO DECENT
MODEL AGREEMENT, OFFSET BY UNCERTAINTY IN THE EVOLUTION OF THE OVERALL PATTERN,
AND MODEL UNCERTAINTY OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC.
FORECASTER: ADAM HARTMAN
NOTES:
AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OCCASIONALLY MANUAL
INTERVENTION IS NECESSARY TO ADDRESS QUALITY CONTROL AND CONSISTENCY ISSUES. IN
THESE CASES, FORECASTS ARE MANUALLY DRAWN BUT A FULL DISCUSSION IS NOT ISSUED.
THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS THE SAME AS
THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW
THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER (ORANGE,
"A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N"). HISTORICAL AVERAGE
VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST (DASHES, "F"). LABELS ON THE
SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).
PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WETTER (GREEN,
"A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N"). HISTORICAL MEDIAN VALUES
FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST (DASHES, "INCHES"). LABELS ON THE
SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).
PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL BE A
GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY EVEN A NORMAL
(I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES
A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO
PRECIPITATION.
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1991-2020 BASE PERIOD MEANS AS REFERENCE IN
THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS.
THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON
FEBRUARY 15.
ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
19910206 - 19860118 - 19910201 - 19680119 - 19920128
ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
19910205 - 19860118 - 19930123 - 19680119 - 19910131
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR FEB 01 - 05 2024
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON B N OREGON B A NRN CALIF B A
SRN CALIF B A IDAHO A A NEVADA B A
W MONTANA A A E MONTANA A A WYOMING A A
UTAH A A ARIZONA B A COLORADO A A
NEW MEXICO A A N DAKOTA A A S DAKOTA A A
NEBRASKA A A KANSAS A A OKLAHOMA A A
N TEXAS A A S TEXAS A A W TEXAS A A
MINNESOTA A N IOWA A A MISSOURI A A
ARKANSAS A A LOUISIANA A A WISCONSIN A B
ILLINOIS A N MISSISSIPPI A A MICHIGAN A B
INDIANA A B OHIO A B KENTUCKY A B
TENNESSEE A B ALABAMA N N NEW YORK A B
VERMONT A B NEW HAMP A B MAINE A B
MASS A B CONN A B RHODE IS A B
PENN A B NEW JERSEY A B W VIRGINIA A B
MARYLAND A B DELAWARE A B VIRGINIA A B
N CAROLINA A B S CAROLINA N N GEORGIA N N
FL PNHDL N A FL PENIN B A AK N SLOPE B N
AK ALEUTIAN A A AK WESTERN B A AK INT BSN B N
AK S INT B N AK SO COAST B B AK PNHDL B B
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR FEB 03 - 09 2024
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON B N OREGON B N NRN CALIF B A
SRN CALIF B A IDAHO B A NEVADA B A
W MONTANA B A E MONTANA B A WYOMING B A
UTAH B A ARIZONA B A COLORADO B A
NEW MEXICO B A N DAKOTA A A S DAKOTA A A
NEBRASKA A A KANSAS A A OKLAHOMA A A
N TEXAS A A S TEXAS A A W TEXAS A A
MINNESOTA A A IOWA A A MISSOURI A A
ARKANSAS A A LOUISIANA A A WISCONSIN A A
ILLINOIS A A MISSISSIPPI A A MICHIGAN A B
INDIANA A N OHIO A B KENTUCKY A N
TENNESSEE A N ALABAMA A A NEW YORK A B
VERMONT A B NEW HAMP A B MAINE A B
MASS A B CONN A B RHODE IS A B
PENN A B NEW JERSEY A B W VIRGINIA A N
MARYLAND A B DELAWARE A B VIRGINIA A N
N CAROLINA A N S CAROLINA A N GEORGIA A A
FL PNHDL N A FL PENIN B A AK N SLOPE N N
AK ALEUTIAN A A AK WESTERN A A AK INT BSN N N
AK S INT B A AK SO COAST B A AK PNHDL B B
LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW B - BELOW
THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.
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