150
FXUS06 KWBC 292002
PMDMRD
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD
300 PM EST MON JANUARY 29 2024
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR FEB 04 - 08 2024
THE GEFS, ECMWF, AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEANS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND DEPICT A
HIGH AMPLITUDE 500-HPA TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST. THIS TROUGH AND NEGATIVE
500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES ELEVATE BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURE PROBABILITIES FOR
MUCH OF THE WEST COAST AND DESERT SOUTHWEST. THE ENSEMBLE MEANS FEATURE
ANOMALOUS MID-LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL CONTIGUOUS U.S. (COUS) AND
THE EASTERN HALF OF CANADA WITH A POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALY CENTER OF
AROUND +300 METERS LOCATED AT SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN THE
6-10 DAY TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK IS HIGHEST ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS, UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, AND GREAT LAKES AS THIS ANOMALOUS RIDGE SUPPORTS LARGE
ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURE PROBABILITIES (MORE THAN 70 PERCENT). TO THE SOUTH OF
THIS ANOMALOUS 500-HPA RIDGE, A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO
TRACK EASTWARD FROM THE SOUTHEAST TO THE SOUTHWESTERN ATLANTIC. BASED ON THIS
PREDICTED SHORTWAVE TROUGH, NEAR TO BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED ALONG
THE GULF COAST AND MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO
FAVORED ALONG THE COASTAL MID-ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST AS MEAN NORTHEASTERLY
SURFACE FLOW FOR THE 5-DAY PERIOD OFFSETS THE BROAD-SCALE WARMER PATTERN.
ENSEMBLE MEANS REMAIN CONSISTENT AND IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT ANOTHER VIGOROUS
SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA BY DAY 6 (FEBRUARY
4). AN INCREASED CHANCE OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION, ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SHORTWAVE
TROUGH, AND POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION LATER IN THE PERIOD SUPPORT
LARGE PROBABILITIES (MORE THAN 70 PERCENT) FOR ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TWO-THIRDS OF CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST. ALTHOUGH
ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHERN
OREGON, PROBABILITIES DECREASE FROM SOUTH-TO-NORTH DUE TO THE PREDICTED MEAN
STORM TRACK AND A WETTER CLIMATOLOGY. AS THE LONGWAVE TROUGH SHIFTS SLOWLY
INLAND, INCREASED ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES ARE ALSO FORECAST
THROUGHOUT THE ROCKIES AND MUCH OF THE GREAT PLAINS. HOWEVER, WHERE AND WHEN
LEESIDE CYCLOGENESIS OCCURS ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS ARE UNCERTAIN. A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ARE FORECAST TO TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST WHICH FAVORS ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR PARTS OF THIS REGION.
ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS MOST LIKELY ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA WHERE
THE DETERMINISTIC MODEL RUNS REMAIN CONSISTENT WITH AROUND AN INCH (LOCALLY
MORE) OF PRECIPITATION ON DAYS 6 AND 7 (FEBRUARY 4 AND 5). THERE IS LIKELY TO
BE A SHARP CUT-OFF TO THE PRECIPITATION ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA AND VIRGINIA.
HOWEVER, FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW FOR THAT PART OF THE EAST COAST AS THERE
COULD BE MODEL CHANGES TO THE PREDICTED SURFACE LOW TRACK IN THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST DUE
TO THE PROXIMITY OF THE ANOMALOUS MID-LEVEL RIDGE.
MODEL SOLUTIONS DEPICT A CLOSED 500-HPA LOW OVER THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS AND A
MID-LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING NORTH FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA TO EASTERN MAINLAND
ALASKA. THIS LONGWAVE PATTERN SUPPORTS INCREASED ABOVE (BELOW)-NORMAL
TEMPERATURE PROBABILITIES FOR SOUTHWESTERN ALASKA AND THE ALEUTIANS (NORTHERN
AND EASTERN MAINLAND ALASKA). A MEAN 5-DAY SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST OVER THE
ALEUTIANS WITH ENHANCED ONSHORE FLOW FAVORING ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION ACROSS
THE ALEUTIANS AND SOUTHWESTERN ALASKA. NEAR TO BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS
FAVORED FOR THE REMAINDER OF ALASKA DUE TO THE RIDGE ALOFT.
NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE FLOW LEADS TO SLIGHTLY ELEVATED BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURE
PROBABILITIES ACROSS THE BIG ISLAND. THE CONSOLIDATION TOOL SUPPORTS
NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE REMAINDER OF HAWAII. CONSISTENT WITH EL NINO
AND BASED ON THE CONSOLIDATION TOOL, BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED
THROUGHOUT HAWAII.
THE OFFICIAL 6-10 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF 30% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 35% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 8, AND 35% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY
8
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: ABOVE AVERAGE, 4 OUT OF 5, DUE TO
GOOD AGREEMENT AND CONTINUITY AMONG THE ENSEMBLE MEANS AND TOOLS.
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR FEB 06 - 12 2024
THE OMEGA TYPE LONGWAVE PATTERN OVER NORTH AMERICA AT THE START OF FEBRUARY IS
FORECAST TO TRANSITION TOWARDS A WESTERN TROUGH-EASTERN RIDGE PATTERN BY THE
SECOND WEEK OF THE MONTH. THE GEFS, ECMWF, AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEANS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS EVOLVING LONGWAVE PATTERN FROM EARLY TO MID-FEBRUARY.
AN AMPLIFIED 500-HPA TROUGH WITH NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES FAVORS BELOW-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FROM THE WEST COAST TO THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. PROBABILITIES ARE
LOWEST IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION WHERE THE
REFORECAST TOOLS ARE WARMER THAN THE UNCALIBRATED OUTPUT. THE ANOMALOUS
MID-LEVEL RIDGE WITH POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES ALONG WITH NO SIGNS OF
ANY ARCTIC AIR OUTBREAKS THROUGH THE SECOND WEEK OF FEBRUARY CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT INCREASED ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURE PROBABILITIES ACROSS THE GREAT
PLAINS, MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, MIDWEST, AND NORTHEAST. A FEW DAYS OF NORTHEASTERLY
SURFACE FLOW, ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING OFFSHORE, FAVORS
NEAR TO BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS PARTS OF FLORIDA, GEORGIA, AND SOUTH
CAROLINA.
EARLY IN WEEK-2, A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO TRACK EASTWARD FROM
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA TO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. THE LARGEST ABOVE-NORMAL
PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES ARE FORECAST ALONG ITS TRACK AND THE DRIER
CLIMATOLOGY WAS A FACTOR FOR THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. THE AMPLIFIED LONGWAVE
TROUGH SHIFTING INLAND FAVORS ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION THROUGHOUT THE GREAT
BASIN AND ROCKIES. LATER IN WEEK-2, THERE IS LIKELY TO BE SURFACE LOW
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. DUE TO UNCERTAINTY ON ITS EXACT TRACK AND
ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS IN THE DAY 10-14 TIME RANGE, A BROAD AREA OF
THE GREAT PLAINS AND MISSISSIPPI VALLEY IS DESIGNATED WITH ELEVATED
ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW ALONG THE
EAST COAST AS THIS REGION COULD HAVE IMPACTS FROM SURFACE LOWS BOTH AT THE
BEGINNING AND END OF WEEK-2. BASED ON THE AUTOMATED AND CONSOLIDATION TOOLS,
SLIGHTLY ELEVATED BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES ARE FORECAST FOR THE
MID-ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST. NEAR NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR THE
SOUTHEAST WHERE A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MAY LINGER INTO THE BEGINNING OF WEEK-2.
THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH (RIDGE) OVER THE ALEUTIANS (EASTERN MAINLAND ALASKA) IS
FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH WEEK-2. THEREFORE, THE 8-14 DAY TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION OUTLOOKS FOR ALASKA ARE QUITE SIMILAR TO THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD.
THE WEEK-2 OUTLOOK FOR HAWAII IS BASED ON THE CONSOLIDATION TOOL WHICH DEPICTS
INCREASED PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND BELOW-NORMAL
PRECIPITATION.
THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF: 35% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 35% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 11, AND 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON
DAY 11
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: AVERAGE, 3 OUT OF 5, DUE TO
OVERALL GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TOOLS OFFSET BY
A CHANGING LONGWAVE PATTERN. ALSO, THERE IS LOWER FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN THE
PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS.
FORECASTER: BRAD PUGH
NOTES:
AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OCCASIONALLY MANUAL
INTERVENTION IS NECESSARY TO ADDRESS QUALITY CONTROL AND CONSISTENCY ISSUES. IN
THESE CASES, FORECASTS ARE MANUALLY DRAWN BUT A FULL DISCUSSION IS NOT ISSUED.
THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS THE SAME AS
THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW
THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER (ORANGE,
"A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N"). HISTORICAL AVERAGE
VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST (DASHES, "F"). LABELS ON THE
SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).
PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WETTER (GREEN,
"A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N"). HISTORICAL MEDIAN VALUES
FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST (DASHES, "INCHES"). LABELS ON THE
SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).
PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL BE A
GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY EVEN A NORMAL
(I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES
A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO
PRECIPITATION.
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1991-2020 BASE PERIOD MEANS AS REFERENCE IN
THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS.
THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON
FEBRUARY 15.
ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
19910206 - 19920129 - 19680120 - 19860123 - 19970203
ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
19910206 - 19860122 - 19970202 - 20020108 - 19910201
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR FEB 04 - 08 2024
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON B N OREGON B A NRN CALIF B A
SRN CALIF B A IDAHO B A NEVADA B A
W MONTANA B A E MONTANA A A WYOMING A A
UTAH N A ARIZONA B A COLORADO A A
NEW MEXICO A A N DAKOTA A A S DAKOTA A A
NEBRASKA A A KANSAS A A OKLAHOMA A A
N TEXAS N A S TEXAS N B W TEXAS A A
MINNESOTA A A IOWA A A MISSOURI A A
ARKANSAS A N LOUISIANA N B WISCONSIN A B
ILLINOIS A B MISSISSIPPI N N MICHIGAN A B
INDIANA A B OHIO A B KENTUCKY A B
TENNESSEE N N ALABAMA N N NEW YORK N B
VERMONT N B NEW HAMP N B MAINE A B
MASS N B CONN N B RHODE IS N B
PENN N B NEW JERSEY N B W VIRGINIA N B
MARYLAND N B DELAWARE B B VIRGINIA B B
N CAROLINA B N S CAROLINA B A GEORGIA B A
FL PNHDL B A FL PENIN B A AK N SLOPE B N
AK ALEUTIAN A A AK WESTERN N A AK INT BSN B N
AK S INT B A AK SO COAST B A AK PNHDL B B
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR FEB 06 - 12 2024
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON B N OREGON B N NRN CALIF B A
SRN CALIF B A IDAHO B A NEVADA B A
W MONTANA B A E MONTANA N A WYOMING B A
UTAH B A ARIZONA B A COLORADO B A
NEW MEXICO B A N DAKOTA A A S DAKOTA A A
NEBRASKA A A KANSAS A A OKLAHOMA A A
N TEXAS A A S TEXAS A A W TEXAS A A
MINNESOTA A A IOWA A A MISSOURI A A
ARKANSAS A A LOUISIANA A A WISCONSIN A A
ILLINOIS A A MISSISSIPPI A A MICHIGAN A A
INDIANA A A OHIO A A KENTUCKY A A
TENNESSEE A N ALABAMA A N NEW YORK A B
VERMONT A B NEW HAMP A B MAINE A B
MASS A B CONN A B RHODE IS A B
PENN A N NEW JERSEY A B W VIRGINIA A N
MARYLAND A B DELAWARE A B VIRGINIA A N
N CAROLINA A N S CAROLINA A N GEORGIA A N
FL PNHDL N N FL PENIN B N AK N SLOPE B N
AK ALEUTIAN A A AK WESTERN A A AK INT BSN N N
AK S INT N A AK SO COAST N A AK PNHDL B N
LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW B - BELOW
THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.
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