830
FXUS01 KWBC 301927
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
227 PM EST TUE JAN 30 2024
VALID 00Z WED JAN 31 2024 - 00Z FRI FEB 02 2024
...HEAVY TO EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IMPACT THE WEST COAST THIS WEEK,
WHILE HEAVY SNOW TO BLANKETS THE SIERRA NEVADA, INTERMOUNTAIN WEST
AND ROCKIES...
...ABOVE AVERAGE WARM AIR EXPANDS FROM GREAT PLAINS INTO
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...
TONIGHT, A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY WILL
SPREAD SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE REGION THROUGH PORTIONS OF
THE MID-ATLANTIC. SNOW SHOWERS AND A WINTRY MIX ARE POSSIBLE OVER
THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS OF WESTERN VIRGINIA, EASTERN WEST
VIRGINIA AND WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA. SOME LIGHT SNOW MAY ALSO WORK
ITS WAY INTO EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA, NORTHERN NEW JERSEY, SOUTHERN
UPSTATE NEW YORK AND NEW YORK CITY THROUGH EARLY TOMORROW MORNING.
LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATIONS/IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED FROM THIS WINTER
WEATHER.
MEANWHILE, TONIGHT, A STRONG SURFACE LOW PRESSURES SYSTEM,
SUPPORTED BY A DEEP UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL ARRIVE OVER THE WEST
COAST. THIS SYSTEM WILL TRANSPORT DEEP MOISTURE INTO THE WEST OVER
THE COURSE OF THE NEXT FEW DAYS. HEAVY RAINFALL AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FROM THE SOUTHERN COAST OF OREGON DOWN
INTO LOS ANGELES COUNTY. A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
LEADING TO FLASH FLOODING IS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN OREGON COAST DOWN THROUGH CENTRAL CALIFORNIA ON WEDNESDAY
DUE, IN PART, TO THE POTENTIAL PRESENCE OF INSTABILITY GENERATING
HIGHER RAINFALL RATES OVER VULNERABLE SURFACES. HEAVY MOUNTAIN
SNOW (6000-7000') KICKS OFF OVER THE SHASTA SISKIYOUS AND SIERRA
ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
ONCE THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES ASHORE AND THE SURFACE COLD FRONT
MOVES INTO THE GREAT BASIN ON THURSDAY, SNOW LEVELS WILL DROP TO
ABOUT 4000-5000' LEADING TO LOWER ELEVATION HEAVY SNOWFALL
POTENTIAL IN THE SIERRA. TOTAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS WILL RANGE
BETWEEN 1-3 FEET BY FRIDAY, WHEN CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
IMPROVE. THE FOCUS FOR HEAVY RAINFALL WILL SHIFT INTO SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA ON THURSDAY, ENHANCED BY A DIGGING TROUGH ALOFT, AN
EMBEDDED SURFACE WAVE AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT AT THE SURFACE.
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS SPREAD INTO THE GREAT BASIN, INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST, AND ROCKIES ON THURSDAY. MEANWHILE, A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
MOVING ACROSS ONTARIO AND QUEBEC WILL PRODUCE LIGHT SNOWFALL OVER
PORTIONS OF NORTHERN UPSTATE NEW YORK/NEW HAMPSHIRE, VERMONT AND
MAINE BEGINNING THURSDAY MORNING.
AN OMEGA BLOCK HIGH WITH EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL CONTINUE
TO SUPPORT INCREASED HEIGHTS OVER THE CENTRAL U.S.. WARM
TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES RANGING BETWEEN 20-40 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE
WILL EXPAND ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS AND MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK AS A RESULT. THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD
RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES WILL PICK UP LATER IN THE WEEK OVER THE
NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS AND UPPER/MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. LOWER
HEIGHTS IN THE WEST WILL GENERATE COOLER TEMPERATURES AROUND 10-20
DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE LATER THIS WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
KEBEDE
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