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FXUS06 KWBC 302002
PMDMRD
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD
300 PM EST TUE JANUARY 30 2024
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR FEB 05 - 09 2024
DYNAMICAL MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING AN AMPLIFIED 500-HPA
GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT PATTERN ACROSS NORTH AMERICA DURING THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD.
TROUGHING IS FAVORED ALONG THE WEST COAST OF THE CONUS, SLOWLY PROGRESSING
INLAND AND WEAKENING WITH TIME. THIS RESULTS IN NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES
DEPICTED IN THE MANUAL 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND FROM THE ROCKIES WESTWARD TO THE
PACIFIC, WITH THE LARGEST NEGATIVE ANOMALIES (-150 METERS) OFF THE COAST OF
CALIFORNIA. RIDGING AND ASSOCIATED POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES ARE FORECAST
ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH AMERICA, WITH THE MANUAL HEIGHT BLEND
DEPICTING A POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALY CENTER OF AROUND +270 METERS NEAR HUDSON
BAY. SHORTWAVE TROUGHING IS PREDICTED TO UNDERCUT THIS RIDGE PRIOR TO AND
AROUND THE OUTSET OF THE PERIOD, LEADING TO NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES OVER
PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST AND WESTERN ATLANTIC. RIDGING IS FORECAST OVER THE
CENTRAL PACIFIC, INCLUDING OVER HAWAII AND EXPANDING INTO PARTS OF MAINLAND AND
SOUTHEAST ALASKA, WITH MID-LEVEL LOW PRESSURE PREDICTED ACROSS THE WESTERN
ALEUTIANS AND BERING SEA.
INCREASED CHANCES FOR ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE PREDICTED ACROSS MUCH OF
THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS UNDERNEATH RIDGING, WITH THE HIGHEST
PROBABILITIES (GREATER THAN 80 PERCENT) FOCUSED ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN
PLAINS, UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, AND GREAT LAKES. PROBABILITIES FOR
ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES DECREASE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER AS A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW ARE FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION JUST
PRIOR TO THE START OF THE PERIOD RESULTING IN RELATIVELY LOWER MID-LEVEL
HEIGHTS, WITH PROBABILITIES FOR BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY ELEVATED
ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST AND FLORIDA FOR THE PERIOD AS A WHOLE.
PROBABILITIES FOR BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE INCREASED ACROSS THE WEST DUE
TO PREDICTED TROUGHING, CONSISTENT WITH THE GEFS AND ECMWF REFORECAST TOOLS.
INCREASED SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW AROUND THE MID-LEVEL LOW OVER THE ALEUTIANS
FAVORS A TILT TOWARD INCREASED NEAR- TO ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURE PROBABILITIES
OVER SOUTHERN MAINLAND ALASKA AND THE ALEUTIANS, WITH ENHANCED PROBABILITIES
FOR BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES FAVORED ACROSS THE NORTHERN MAINLAND AND PARTS OF
SOUTHEAST ALASKA DUE TO MORE EASTERLY FLOW. ELEVATED PROBABILITIES FOR NEAR- TO
ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE PREDICTED ACROSS HAWAII, SUPPORTED BY THE
CONSOLIDATION FORECAST TOOL.
TROUGHING MOVING INLAND OVER THE WESTERN CONUS FAVORS INCREASED PROBABILITIES
FOR ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION OVER MUCH OF THE WEST AND EXTENDING INTO THE
GREAT PLAINS AND UPPER AND MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AS A SURFACE LOW MAY EJECT
OUT OF THE ROCKIES LATE IN THE PERIOD. THE LARGEST PROBABILITIES (GREATER THAN
80 PERCENT) ARE PREDICTED OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WHERE HIGH PRECIPITATION
TOTALS COMBINED WITH LOW CLIMATOLOGIES LEAD TO HIGHER PROBABILITIES. OVER THE
EAST, SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS PREDICTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AROUND
FEBRUARY 3-5, WITH LINGERING PRECIPITATION PREDICTED ACROSS THE COASTAL
SOUTHEAST AND MID-ATLANTIC AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. WHILE THIS FAVORS A
SLIGHT TILT TOWARD ENHANCED ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES ACROSS
PARTS OF FLORIDA THROUGH THE COASTAL CAROLINAS FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD, CHANCES
FOR BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE IN THE WAKE OF THIS
SYSTEM OVER PARTS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, INTERIOR SOUTHEAST, AND
EXTENDING THROUGH THE NORTHEAST. TROUGHING OVER THE BERING SEA FAVORS INCREASED
CHANCES FOR NEAR- TO ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHERN
MAINLAND ALASKA AND THE ALEUTIANS, WITH NEAR- TO BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION
PROBABILITIES ELEVATED OVER NORTHERN AND SOUTHEAST ALASKA UNDERNEATH WEAKER
ONSHORE FLOW. BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES ARE SLIGHTLY ELEVATED
ACROSS HAWAII UNDERNEATH RIDGING.
THE OFFICIAL 6-10 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF 30% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 5% OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 6Z GFS CENTERED ON
DAY 8, 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 5% OF
TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 0Z ECMWF CENTERED ON DAY 8, AND 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: ABOVE AVERAGE, 4 OUT OF 5, DUE TO
GOOD AGREEMENT AND CONTINUITY AMONG THE ENSEMBLE MEANS AND TOOLS.
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR FEB 07 - 13 2024
DURING WEEK-2, THE TROUGH IN THE WEST IS FORECAST TO PROGRESS EASTWARD TOWARD
THE CENTRAL CONUS AND WEAKEN IN AMPLITUDE. RIDGING IS PREDICTED TO REMAIN IN
PLACE ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN CANADA, WITH POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES
FAVORED OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS. THIS ALLOWS FOR A
CONTINUATION OF THE HIGH PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER THE
EAST, WITH THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES (GREATER THAN 80 PERCENT) OVER MUCH OF THE
MIDWEST, GREAT LAKES, AND INTERIOR NORTHEAST. THE ARCTIC OSCILLATION IS
FORECAST TO TREND TOWARD A MORE NEUTRAL OR NEGATIVE PHASE BY MID-FEBRUARY, WITH
THE CURRENT POSITIVE PHASE OF THE NORTH ATLANTIC OSCILLATION ALSO PREDICTED TO
WEAKEN, WHICH MAY FAVOR A TRANSITION TO A RELATIVELY COOLER PATTERN ACROSS THE
EASTERN CONUS TOWARD MID-FEBRUARY, ALTHOUGH THIS MAY NOT FULLY MANIFEST UNTIL
WEEK-3.
ELEVATED PROBABILITIES OF BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES REMAIN FAVORED FROM THE
ROCKIES TO THE WEST COAST, CONSISTENT WITH PREDICTED TROUGHING AND SUPPORTED BY
THE VARIOUS FORECAST TOOLS. RIDGING OVER THE CENTRAL PACIFIC IS FORECAST TO
PERSIST THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE PERIOD BEFORE WEAKENING, FAVORING
ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER HAWAII. TROUGHING IS FAVORED TO BECOME MORE
DOMINANT ACROSS THE BERING SEA LEADING TO INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AND
ELEVATED PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS SOUTHERN ALASKA,
WITH ELEVATED BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURE PROBABILITIES REMAINING FAVORED ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PART OF THE STATE AND THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS. ALTHOUGH THE GEFS IS
NOTABLY COOLER THAN THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE OVER ALASKA, A TILT TOWARD THE ECMWF IS
PREFERRED GIVEN THE PATTERN EVOLUTION AND IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY TELECONNECTION
ANALYSIS WITH THE NEGATIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALY CENTER NEAR THE ALEUTIANS.
TROUGHING MOVING ACROSS THE CONUS FAVORS INCREASED PROBABILITIES FOR
ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION ACROSS MOST AREAS, AS MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES MAY EJECT
OUT OF THE ROCKIES ENHANCING PRECIPITATION CHANCES OVER PARTS OF THE
EAST-CENTRAL CONUS DURING WEEK-2. THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES (GREATER THAN 60
PERCENT) CONTINUE TO REMAIN FAVORED ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST DUE TO THE LOWER
PRECIPITATION CLIMATOLOGY. PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE FORECAST TO DECREASE
ACROSS THE WEST LATER IN WEEK-2 AS THE TROUGHING CONTINUES TO SHIFT EASTWARD,
AND POTENTIALLY MORE RIDGING BUILDS ALONG THE WEST COAST BY THE END OF WEEK-2.
NEAR- TO SLIGHTLY BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE INCREASED ALONG THE
EASTERN SEABOARD, FARTHER DISPLACED FROM THE UPSTREAM TROUGHING AND UNDERNEATH
MORE INFLUENCE FROM THE RIDGING OVER SOUTHEASTERN CANADA. TROUGHING AND
ENHANCED ONSHORE FLOW FAVORS INCREASED CHANCES FOR NEAR- TO ABOVE-NORMAL
PRECIPITATION ACROSS ALASKA, AND WEAKENING RIDGING OVER THE CENTRAL PACIFIC
FAVORS A TILT TOWARD NEAR-NORMAL PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS.
THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF: 35% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 35% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 11, AND 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON
DAY 11
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: AVERAGE, 3 OUT OF 5, DUE TO
OVERALL GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TOOLS, OFFSET BY
SIGNALS FOR A POTENTIAL PATTERN CHANGE TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
FORECASTER: THOMAS COLLOW
NOTES:
AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OCCASIONALLY MANUAL
INTERVENTION IS NECESSARY TO ADDRESS QUALITY CONTROL AND CONSISTENCY ISSUES. IN
THESE CASES, FORECASTS ARE MANUALLY DRAWN BUT A FULL DISCUSSION IS NOT ISSUED.
THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS THE SAME AS
THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW
THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER (ORANGE,
"A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N"). HISTORICAL AVERAGE
VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST (DASHES, "F"). LABELS ON THE
SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).
PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WETTER (GREEN,
"A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N"). HISTORICAL MEDIAN VALUES
FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST (DASHES, "INCHES"). LABELS ON THE
SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).
PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL BE A
GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY EVEN A NORMAL
(I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES
A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO
PRECIPITATION.
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1991-2020 BASE PERIOD MEANS AS REFERENCE IN
THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS.
THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON
FEBRUARY 15.
ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
19910206 - 19920129 - 19960209 - 19600201 - 19680120
ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
19910207 - 19920129 - 19960208 - 19970202 - 19600202
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR FEB 05 - 09 2024
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON B N OREGON B A NRN CALIF B A
SRN CALIF B A IDAHO B A NEVADA B A
W MONTANA B A E MONTANA A A WYOMING A A
UTAH N A ARIZONA B A COLORADO A A
NEW MEXICO A A N DAKOTA A A S DAKOTA A A
NEBRASKA A A KANSAS A A OKLAHOMA A A
N TEXAS A A S TEXAS A B W TEXAS A A
MINNESOTA A A IOWA A A MISSOURI A A
ARKANSAS A N LOUISIANA A B WISCONSIN A A
ILLINOIS A N MISSISSIPPI A B MICHIGAN A N
INDIANA A N OHIO A B KENTUCKY A N
TENNESSEE A B ALABAMA A B NEW YORK A B
VERMONT A B NEW HAMP A B MAINE A B
MASS A B CONN A B RHODE IS A B
PENN A B NEW JERSEY A B W VIRGINIA A B
MARYLAND A B DELAWARE A B VIRGINIA A B
N CAROLINA N N S CAROLINA N N GEORGIA N B
FL PNHDL B B FL PENIN B A AK N SLOPE B N
AK ALEUTIAN A A AK WESTERN N A AK INT BSN B N
AK S INT N A AK SO COAST N A AK PNHDL N N
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR FEB 07 - 13 2024
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON B N OREGON B A NRN CALIF B A
SRN CALIF B A IDAHO B A NEVADA B A
W MONTANA B A E MONTANA A A WYOMING B A
UTAH B A ARIZONA B A COLORADO B A
NEW MEXICO B A N DAKOTA A A S DAKOTA A A
NEBRASKA A A KANSAS A A OKLAHOMA A A
N TEXAS A A S TEXAS A A W TEXAS A A
MINNESOTA A A IOWA A A MISSOURI A A
ARKANSAS A A LOUISIANA A A WISCONSIN A A
ILLINOIS A A MISSISSIPPI A A MICHIGAN A A
INDIANA A A OHIO A A KENTUCKY A A
TENNESSEE A A ALABAMA A A NEW YORK A A
VERMONT A N NEW HAMP A N MAINE A N
MASS A N CONN A N RHODE IS A N
PENN A A NEW JERSEY A N W VIRGINIA A A
MARYLAND A A DELAWARE A N VIRGINIA A A
N CAROLINA A N S CAROLINA A N GEORGIA A N
FL PNHDL A N FL PENIN N B AK N SLOPE B N
AK ALEUTIAN N A AK WESTERN N A AK INT BSN N A
AK S INT A A AK SO COAST A A AK PNHDL A A
LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW B - BELOW
THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.
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