981
FXUS06 KWBC 012003
PMDMRD
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD
300 PM EST THU FEBRUARY 01 2024
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR FEB 07 - 11 2024
THERE CONTINUES TO BE GOOD AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE DYNAMICAL MODELS ON THE
EVOLUTION OF THE 500-HPA HEIGHT PATTERN DURING THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD ACROSS NORTH
AMERICA. NEGATIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES ARE FORECAST OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST
OF THE CONTIGUOUS U.S. (CONUS) AND A SECOND AREA IS FORECAST ACROSS THE WESTERN
CONUS. A THIRD AREA OF NEGATIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES IS FORECAST ACROSS
WESTERN ALASKA AND THE BERING SEA. POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES CONTINUE
TO BE FORECAST FOR EASTERN NORTH AMERICA WITH THE STRONGEST ANOMALIES CENTERED
OVER QUEBEC. AN AREA OF BUILDING POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES IS FORECAST FROM THE
CENTRAL PACIFIC NORTH OF HAWAII INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA AND WESTERN
NORTHWESTERN NORTH AMERICA.
WITH STRONG POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES FORECAST ACROSS THE EASTERN
CONUS, AREAS EAST OF THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS ARE LIKELY TO SEE ABOVE-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES DURING THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD. THE STRONGEST CHANCES FOR ABOVE-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ACROSS THE MIDDLE AND UPPER-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND THE
GREAT LAKES. NEAR- TO BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA FURTHEST DISPLACED FROM THE POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES CENTERED OVER
CANADA. ALONG THE WEST COAST, BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED WITH SOME
DISAGREEMENT ON THE STRENGTH OF THE FORECAST ANOMALIES BETWEEN REFORECAST
TOOLS, WITH A WARMER SOLUTION, AND THE SHORT-TERM BIAS-CORRECTED TOOLS, WITH A
COLDER SOLUTION. IN ALASKA, AS POSITIVE 500-HPA EDGES INTO EASTERN ALASKA,
SOUTHERLY FLOW BRINGS CHANCES FOR NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO MUCH OF THE
STATE. NEAR TO ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR HAWAII, WITH STRONGER
CHANCES FOR ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR OAHU AND KAUAI.
ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED ACROSS MUCH OF THE COUNTRY DURING THE
6-10 DAY PERIOD. ALONG THE WEST COAST, THE WET PATTERN PERSISTS THROUGH THE
6-10 DAY PERIOD ALTHOUGH THERE ARE SIGNALS FOR A DRIER PATTERN TO DEVELOP BY
THE END OF THE PERIOD AS THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WEST PROGRESSES
EASTWARD. THIS PROGRESSION WILL ALLOW FOR A SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO EJECT OUT OF
THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS AND BRING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION TO THE PLAINS,
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, AND WESTERN GREAT LAKES. DRIER CONDITIONS AND BELOW-NORMAL
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE FAVORED ACROSS THE EASTERN SEABOARD AHEAD OF THE
RIDGE AXIS. IN ALASKA, ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS GENERALLY FAVORED ACROSS
SOUTHERN ALASKA WITH SOUTHERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW. IN HAWAII, BELOW-NORMAL
PRECIPITATION IS GENERALLY FAVORED IN AGREEMENT WITH CONSOLIDATION TOOLS AND
WITH ABOVE-NORMAL HEIGHTS TO THE SOUTH OF THE ISLAND CHAIN.
THE OFFICIAL 6-10 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF 35% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 35% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 8, AND 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY
8
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: ABOVE-AVERAGE, 4 OUT OF 5, THERE
IS GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG ALL THE MODEL TOOLS FOR MUCH OF THE COUNTRY OFFSET BY
THE POTENTIAL FOR A PATTERN CHANGE BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR FEB 09 - 15 2024
THERE IS MORE DISAGREEMENT FOR THE WEEK-2 PERIOD PARTICULARLY OVER THE
EVOLUTION OF THE 500-HPA TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED NEGATIVE ANOMALIES ACROSS THE
WESTERN CONUS. THE GEFS MAINTAINS STRONG NEGATIVE ANOMALIES OVER THE SOUTHWEST,
AS A CUT-OFF LOW SEPARATED FROM THE MEAN FLOW. HOWEVER, THE ECMWF IS PREDICTING
A MUCH FASTER EVOLUTION OF THE PATTERN PROGRESSING THE NEGATIVE ANOMALIES
EASTWARD INTO THE PLAINS AND CENTRAL CONUS. THE GEFS AND ECMWF HAVE BEEN
DIVERGING FURTHER OVER THE PAST SEVERAL MODEL FORECASTS DECREASING CONFIDENCE
IN THE 500-HPA PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS. NEVERTHELESS, THERE IS SOME AGREEMENT
THAT THE POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES THAT HAVE BEEN DOMINATING THE
EASTERN CONUS FOR SOME TIME NOW WILL RETRACT INTO CANADA AND THE DAVIS
STRAIGHT. IN ALASKA, POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES ARE FAVORED TO BE
CENTERED OVER SOUTHEAST ALASKA WITH CONTINUED NEGATIVE ANOMALIES FORECAST NEAR
THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS AND BERING SEA. IN HAWAII, NEAR-NORMAL HEIGHTS ARE FAVORED
WITH ABOVE-NORMAL HEIGHTS SOUTH OF THE ISLAND CHAIN AND BELOW-NORMAL HEIGHTS
EXTENDING FROM THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS SOUTH TOWARDS HAWAII.
ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES REMAIN FAVORED EAST OF THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS IN THE
CONUS DURING THE WEEK-2 PERIOD. THE STRONGEST PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS BUT MUCH OF THE EASTERN
CONUS IS FAVORED TO SEE ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES. BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ARE FORECAST FOR PORTIONS OF THE INTERIOR WEST AS THE PACIFIC TROUGH LINGERS
OVER THE WEST. HOWEVER, THERE IS HIGHER UNCERTAINTY, PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PARTS OF THE WEST WHERE REFORECAST TOOLS FAVOR WARMER TEMPERATURES AS
POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES BUILD ACROSS WESTERN CANADA. IN ALASKA,
BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE SLIGHTLY FAVORED ACROSS THE WESTERN PARTS OF THE
STATE. ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR THE EASTERN MAINLAND DOWN INTO
SOUTHEAST ALASKA. IN HAWAII, ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE SLIGHTLY FAVORED
ACROSS THE ISLAND CHAIN.
ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS SLIGHTLY FAVORED ACROSS MUCH OF THE CONUS DURING
THE WEEK-2 PERIOD. THE STRONGEST PROBABILITIES REMAIN IN THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION AND INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AS THE TROUGH PROGRESSES EASTWARD OUT OF
THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS. THIS WILL BRING CHANCES FOR UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THE
REGION. AS THE TROUGH PROGRESSES FURTHER EAST, THE PRECIPITATION FORECAST
BECOMES MORE UNCERTAIN DUE TO REDUCED MODEL AGREEMENT ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE
500-HPA HEIGHT PATTERN. IN GENERAL, IT LOOKS LIKE THERE MAY BE A PERIOD OF
UNSETTLED WEATHER ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS AS THE PATTERN BREAKS DOWN AND
EVOLVES. THEREFORE, THERE IS GENERALLY A SLIGHT TILT TOWARDS ABOVE-NORMAL
PRECIPITATION FOR MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS. NEAR- TO BELOW-NORMAL
PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED IN PARTS OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AS RIDGING IS
FORECAST TO BECOME ESTABLISHED. IN ALASKA, ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS
FAVORED ALONG THE GULF OF ALASKA. THE STRONGEST PROBABILITIES ARE CENTERED IN
THE SOUTH-CENTRAL MAINLAND AND COPPER RIVER BASIN. NEAR-NORMAL IS GENERALLY
FAVORED FOR THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE STATE. IN HAWAII, BELOW-NORMAL
PRECIPITATION IS SLIGHTLY FAVORED IN AGREEMENT WITH THE AUTOBLEND AND
CONSOLIDATION TOOLS.
THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF: 10% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 25% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED
ON DAY 11, 40% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, AND 25%
OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: BELOW AVERAGE, 2 OUT OF 5, A
PATTERN CHANGE LOOKS LIKELY DURING THE WEEK-2 PERIOD LEADING TO DECREASED
CONFIDENCE WITH LIMITED AGREEMENT AMONG THE FORECAST TOOLS.
FORECASTER: RYAN BOLT
NOTES:
AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OCCASIONALLY MANUAL
INTERVENTION IS NECESSARY TO ADDRESS QUALITY CONTROL AND CONSISTENCY ISSUES. IN
THESE CASES, FORECASTS ARE MANUALLY DRAWN BUT A FULL DISCUSSION IS NOT ISSUED.
THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS THE SAME AS
THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW
THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER (ORANGE,
"A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N"). HISTORICAL AVERAGE
VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST (DASHES, "F"). LABELS ON THE
SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).
PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WETTER (GREEN,
"A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N"). HISTORICAL MEDIAN VALUES
FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST (DASHES, "INCHES"). LABELS ON THE
SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).
PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL BE A
GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY EVEN A NORMAL
(I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES
A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO
PRECIPITATION.
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1991-2020 BASE PERIOD MEANS AS REFERENCE IN
THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS.
THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON
FEBRUARY 15.
ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
19920130 - 19810120 - 19910204 - 19930205 - 19600201
ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
19920131 - 19810119 - 19910207 - 19930204 - 19600201
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR FEB 07 - 11 2024
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON B N OREGON B A NRN CALIF B A
SRN CALIF B A IDAHO B A NEVADA B A
W MONTANA N A E MONTANA A A WYOMING N A
UTAH B A ARIZONA B A COLORADO A A
NEW MEXICO A A N DAKOTA A A S DAKOTA A A
NEBRASKA A A KANSAS A A OKLAHOMA A A
N TEXAS A A S TEXAS A A W TEXAS A A
MINNESOTA A A IOWA A A MISSOURI A A
ARKANSAS A A LOUISIANA A A WISCONSIN A A
ILLINOIS A A MISSISSIPPI A A MICHIGAN A A
INDIANA A A OHIO A N KENTUCKY A A
TENNESSEE A A ALABAMA A A NEW YORK A B
VERMONT A B NEW HAMP A B MAINE A B
MASS A B CONN A B RHODE IS A B
PENN A N NEW JERSEY A B W VIRGINIA A N
MARYLAND A B DELAWARE A B VIRGINIA A B
N CAROLINA A B S CAROLINA A B GEORGIA A N
FL PNHDL A B FL PENIN B B AK N SLOPE B N
AK ALEUTIAN N A AK WESTERN N A AK INT BSN N N
AK S INT N A AK SO COAST N A AK PNHDL N A
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR FEB 09 - 15 2024
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON N B OREGON B N NRN CALIF B N
SRN CALIF B A IDAHO B N NEVADA B N
W MONTANA N N E MONTANA A N WYOMING B A
UTAH B A ARIZONA B A COLORADO B A
NEW MEXICO B A N DAKOTA A A S DAKOTA A A
NEBRASKA A A KANSAS A A OKLAHOMA A A
N TEXAS A A S TEXAS A A W TEXAS A A
MINNESOTA A A IOWA A A MISSOURI A A
ARKANSAS A A LOUISIANA A A WISCONSIN A A
ILLINOIS A A MISSISSIPPI A A MICHIGAN A A
INDIANA A A OHIO A A KENTUCKY A A
TENNESSEE A A ALABAMA A A NEW YORK A A
VERMONT A N NEW HAMP A N MAINE A N
MASS A N CONN A N RHODE IS A N
PENN A A NEW JERSEY A N W VIRGINIA A A
MARYLAND A N DELAWARE A N VIRGINIA A A
N CAROLINA A A S CAROLINA A A GEORGIA A A
FL PNHDL A A FL PENIN N N AK N SLOPE N N
AK ALEUTIAN B A AK WESTERN N A AK INT BSN A A
AK S INT N A AK SO COAST N A AK PNHDL A A
LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW B - BELOW
THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.
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