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FXUS06 KWBC 022003
PMDMRD
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD
300 PM EST FRI FEBRUARY 02 2024
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR FEB 08 - 12 2024
DYNAMICAL MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING AN AMPLIFIED 500-HPA
GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT PATTERN ACROSS NORTH AMERICA DURING THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD.
TROUGHING WITH NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES IS FAVORED OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF
THE CONTIGUOUS U.S. (CONUS). RIDGING AND ASSOCIATED POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES
ARE FORECAST ACROSS EASTERN NORTH AMERICA, WITH THE MANUAL HEIGHT BLEND
DEPICTING A POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALY CENTER OF AROUND +150 METERS OVER QUEBEC. A
MID-LEVEL LOW PRESSURE PREDICTED ACROSS THE ALEUTIANS AND BERING SEA. AN AREA
OF BUILDING POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES IS FORECAST FROM THE CENTRAL PACIFIC
NORTH OF HAWAII INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA AND WESTERN NORTHWESTERN NORTH AMERICA.
INCREASED CHANCES FOR ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE PREDICTED ACROSS MUCH OF
THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS UNDERNEATH RIDGING, WITH THE HIGHEST
PROBABILITIES (GREATER THAN 90 PERCENT) FOCUSED ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION,
SUPPORTED BY MOST DYNAMICAL TEMPERATURE FORECAST TOOLS. PROBABILITIES FOR
BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE INCREASED ACROSS THE WEST DUE TO PREDICTED
TROUGHING AND ASSOCIATED BELOW-NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS. IN ALASKA, AS POSITIVE
500-HPA ANOMALIES EDGE INTO EASTERN ALASKA, SOUTHERLY FLOW BRINGS CHANCES FOR
NEAR- TO ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO MUCH OF THE STATE. NEAR TO ABOVE-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR HAWAII, CONSISTENT WITH THE CONSOLIDATION
TEMPERATURE FORECAST TOOL.
TROUGHING MOVING INLAND OVER THE WESTERN CONUS FAVORS INCREASED PROBABILITIES
FOR ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION OVER MUCH OF THE CONUS, EXCEPT FOR PARTS OF THE
NORTHEAST AND FLORIDA, WHERE BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS INDICATED. THE
LARGEST PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION (GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT)
ARE PREDICTED OVER PORTIONS OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WHERE HIGH PRECIPITATION
TOTALS COMBINED WITH LOW CLIMATOLOGIES LEAD TO HIGHER PROBABILITIES. IN ALASKA,
TROUGHING OVER THE BERING SEA FAVORS INCREASED CHANCES FOR ABOVE-NORMAL
PRECIPITATION ACROSS SOUTHERN ALASKA. IN HAWAII, BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION
PROBABILITIES ARE SLIGHTLY ELEVATED ACROSS HAWAII UNDERNEATH RIDGING IN
AGREEMENT WITH CONSOLIDATION TOOLS.
THE OFFICIAL 6-10 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF 35% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 35% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 8, AND 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY
8
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: ABOVE AVERAGE, 4 OUT OF 5, DUE TO
GOOD AGREEMENT AND CONTINUITY AMONG THE ENSEMBLE MEANS AND TOOLS.
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR FEB 10 - 16 2024
DURING WEEK-2, THE TROUGH IN THE WEST IS FORECAST TO PROGRESS EASTWARD TOWARD
THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS AND WEAKEN IN AMPLITUDE. RIDGING AND ASSOCIATED
POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES ARE PREDICTED ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN CONUS AND EASTERN
AND SOUTHEAST ALASKA. TROUGHING AND CONTINUED NEGATIVE ANOMALIES ARE FORECAST
NEAR THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS AND BERING SEA. SLIGHT BELOW-NORMAL HEIGHTS ARE
FAVORED OVER HAWAII. THE ARCTIC OSCILLATION IS FORECAST TO TREND TOWARD A MORE
NEUTRAL OR NEGATIVE PHASE BY MID-FEBRUARY, AND THE CURRENT POSITIVE PHASE OF
THE NORTH ATLANTIC OSCILLATION ALSO PREDICTED TO WEAKEN, WHICH MAY FAVOR A
TRANSITION TO A RELATIVELY COOLER PATTERN ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS TOWARD
LATE-FEBRUARY.
ELEVATED PROBABILITIES OF BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES REMAIN FAVORED MUCH OF THE
WESTERN CONUS, EXCEPT FOR THE WEST COAST, WHERE ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
INDICATED, SUPPORTED BY MOST DYNAMICAL TEMPERATURE FORECAST TOOLS. ABOVE-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES REMAIN FAVORED MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS DURING THE
WEEK-2 PERIOD. THE STRONGEST PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES
(GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT) ARE FORECAST ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS. IN
ALASKA, BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE SLIGHTLY FAVORED ACROSS THE WESTERN PARTS
OF THE STATE. ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
MAINLAND DOWN INTO SOUTHEAST ALASKA. IN HAWAII, ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
SLIGHTLY FAVORED ACROSS THE ISLAND CHAIN.
BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED OVER THE WESTERN CONUS AS RIDGING IS
FORECAST TO BECOME ESTABLISHED. NEAR- TO ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS SLIGHTLY
FAVORED ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE CONUS DURING THE WEEK-2 PERIOD DUE TO THE
TROUGH OVER THE WEST DURING THE 6-10 DAY EASTWARD AND WEAKENS IN AMPLITUDE TO
THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS. IN ALASKA, NEAR- TO ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION
IS GENERALLY FAVORED ACROSS ALASKA WITH SOUTHERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW. IN HAWAII,
BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST, CONSISTENT WITH CONSOLIDATION
PRECIPITATION TOOLS.
THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF: 35% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 35% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 11, AND 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON
DAY 11
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: AVERAGE, 3 OUT OF 5, DUE TO
OVERALL GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TOOLS, OFFSET BY
SIGNALS FOR A POTENTIAL PATTERN CHANGE TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
FORECASTER: LUKE H
NOTES:
AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OCCASIONALLY MANUAL
INTERVENTION IS NECESSARY TO ADDRESS QUALITY CONTROL AND CONSISTENCY ISSUES. IN
THESE CASES, FORECASTS ARE MANUALLY DRAWN BUT A FULL DISCUSSION IS NOT ISSUED.
THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS THE SAME AS
THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW
THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER (ORANGE,
"A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N"). HISTORICAL AVERAGE
VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST (DASHES, "F"). LABELS ON THE
SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).
PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WETTER (GREEN,
"A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N"). HISTORICAL MEDIAN VALUES
FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST (DASHES, "INCHES"). LABELS ON THE
SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).
PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL BE A
GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY EVEN A NORMAL
(I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES
A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO
PRECIPITATION.
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1991-2020 BASE PERIOD MEANS AS REFERENCE IN
THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS.
THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON
FEBRUARY 15.
ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
19810120 - 19920130 - 19930205 - 19910205 - 19600202
ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
19920131 - 19810119 - 19930204 - 19910205 - 19600201
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR FEB 08 - 12 2024
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON B A OREGON B A NRN CALIF B A
SRN CALIF B A IDAHO B A NEVADA B A
W MONTANA B A E MONTANA A A WYOMING N A
UTAH B A ARIZONA B A COLORADO B A
NEW MEXICO B A N DAKOTA A A S DAKOTA A A
NEBRASKA A A KANSAS A A OKLAHOMA A A
N TEXAS A A S TEXAS A A W TEXAS A A
MINNESOTA A A IOWA A A MISSOURI A A
ARKANSAS A A LOUISIANA A A WISCONSIN A A
ILLINOIS A A MISSISSIPPI A A MICHIGAN A A
INDIANA A A OHIO A A KENTUCKY A A
TENNESSEE A A ALABAMA A A NEW YORK A A
VERMONT A N NEW HAMP A B MAINE A B
MASS A B CONN A N RHODE IS A B
PENN A A NEW JERSEY A N W VIRGINIA A A
MARYLAND A A DELAWARE A N VIRGINIA A A
N CAROLINA A A S CAROLINA A A GEORGIA A A
FL PNHDL A N FL PENIN A B AK N SLOPE N N
AK ALEUTIAN N A AK WESTERN N A AK INT BSN N N
AK S INT N A AK SO COAST N A AK PNHDL N A
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR FEB 10 - 16 2024
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON N B OREGON B B NRN CALIF B B
SRN CALIF B B IDAHO B B NEVADA B B
W MONTANA B B E MONTANA A N WYOMING B N
UTAH B B ARIZONA B A COLORADO B A
NEW MEXICO B A N DAKOTA A N S DAKOTA A N
NEBRASKA A N KANSAS A A OKLAHOMA A A
N TEXAS N A S TEXAS N A W TEXAS N A
MINNESOTA A N IOWA A N MISSOURI A N
ARKANSAS A A LOUISIANA A A WISCONSIN A N
ILLINOIS A N MISSISSIPPI A A MICHIGAN A N
INDIANA A N OHIO A N KENTUCKY A N
TENNESSEE A A ALABAMA A A NEW YORK A N
VERMONT A N NEW HAMP A N MAINE A N
MASS A N CONN A N RHODE IS A N
PENN A N NEW JERSEY A N W VIRGINIA A N
MARYLAND A N DELAWARE A N VIRGINIA A N
N CAROLINA A A S CAROLINA A A GEORGIA A A
FL PNHDL A A FL PENIN N A AK N SLOPE N A
AK ALEUTIAN N A AK WESTERN N A AK INT BSN A A
AK S INT A A AK SO COAST A A AK PNHDL A A
LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW B - BELOW
THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.
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