619  
FXUS01 KWBC 030800  
PMDSPD  
 
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD  
300 AM EST SAT FEB 03 2024  
 
VALID 12Z SAT FEB 03 2024 - 12Z MON FEB 05 2024  
 
...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY FOR THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI  
VALLEY, WITH THE RISK OF SCATTERED FLASH FLOODING ALONG THE GULF  
COAST...  
 
...MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOWFALL SATURDAY FOR PORTIONS OF THE  
NORTHERN/CENTRAL ROCKIES AND EASTERN GREAT BASIN...  
 
...STRONG ATMOSPHERIC RIVER TO BRING A CONSIDERABLE RISK FOR FLASH  
FLOODING AND VERY HEAVY SNOW TO CALIFORNIA BEGINNING SATURDAY  
NIGHT...  
 
...MILD, WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST ACROSS  
CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE COUNTRY THIS WEEKEND...  
 
WIDESPREAD, ORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE  
EASTWARD FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI  
VALLEY SATURDAY AHEAD OF A DEEP UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH/CLOSED LOW AND  
ACCOMPANYING SURFACE FRONTAL SYSTEM. STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD  
OF THE FRONT WILL FUNNEL WARM, MOIST GULF AIR NORTHWARD HELPING TO  
FUEL SOME HEAVIER DOWNPOURS, PARTICULARLY FOR LOCATIONS ALONG THE  
GULF COAST. A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL (LEVEL 2/4) HAS  
BEEN OUTLINED FOR THIS REGION AS THE HEAVY DOWNPOURS, AND THE  
THREAT FOR SOME REPEATED/TRAINING STORMS, WILL BRING THE RISK OF  
SOME SCATTERED INSTANCES OF FLASH FLOODING. STORM CHANCES WILL  
SHIFT INTO THE SOUTHEAST AND FLORIDA SUNDAY WITH A CONTINUED  
CHANCE FOR MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL, AND THE THREAT OF  
AN ISOLATED INSTANCE OR TWO OF FLASH FLOODING.  
 
TO THE WEST, MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVER  
PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL ROCKIES AND EASTERN GREAT BASIN  
SATURDAY AS MOISTURE WRAPS NORTHWESTWARD AROUND THE SYSTEM OVER  
THE PLAINS AND THE ACCOMPANYING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH LINGERS OVER  
THE REGION. MANY OF THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE REGIONAL MOUNTAIN  
RANGES WILL SEE TOTALS BETWEEN 5-10". SOME MODERATE RAIN/SNOW  
SHOWERS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE FOR THE ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS, WITH  
THE CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL INCREASING FOR AREAS  
IMMEDIATELY ALONG THE FRONT RANGE FROM SOUTHERN WYOMING SOUTHWARD  
INTO COLORADO. THE SNOW SHOULD BEGIN TO TAPER OFF FROM SOUTH TO  
NORTH OVERNIGHT SATURDAY INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS SUNDAY,  
LINGERING LONGEST FOR THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WHERE A SLOW MOVING  
FRONT PUSHING INTO THE REGION WILL KEEP AT LEAST LIGHT SNOW  
CHANCES UP INTO THE DAY SUNDAY.  
 
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO CALIFORNIA AS A STRONG ATMOSPHERIC RIVER  
WILL BRING THE THREAT FOR CONSIDERABLE FLASH FLOODING AND VERY  
HEAVY, MOUNTAIN SNOW IN THE SIERRA. RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN  
AS EARLY AS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT FOR CENTRAL PORTIONS OF COASTAL  
CALIFORNIA WHERE A FEW INCHES OF RAIN BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING MAY  
LEAD LEAD TO SOME INITIAL INSTANCES OF FLOODING, WITH A SLIGHT  
RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL NOW IN EFFECT. THE IMPACTS WILL RAMP UP  
QUICKLY DURING THE DAY SUNDAY AS THE DEEP PACIFIC MOISTURE  
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM OVERSPREADS THE REGION. THE COMBINATION  
OF FAVORABLE ONSHORE/UPSLOPE FLOW ALONG THE COASTAL MOUNTAIN  
RANGES, WARM, MOIST AIR KEEPING SNOW LEVELS HIGH, AND REPEATED  
ROUNDS OF STORMS WILL LEAD TO THE THREAT OF RAINFALL TOTALS OF 5"+  
AND RAINFALL RATES OF 1" PER HOUR. A MODERATE RISK OF EXCESSIVE  
RAINFALL (LEVEL 3/4) IS IN EFFECT SUNDAY FOR COASTAL PORTIONS OF  
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AS THESE HEAVY RAIN TOTALS WILL  
BRING A CONSIDERABLE RISK FOR FLASH AND URBAN FLOODING AS WELL AS  
THE THREAT FOR DEBRIS FLOWS AND MUDSLIDES. A SLIGHT RISK IS ALSO  
IN EFFECT INLAND FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL CALIFORNIA, ESPECIALLY  
ALONG THE SIERRA WHERE THE HIGHER SNOW LEVELS WILL INCREASE THE  
THREAT FOR FLOODING FOR FAVORABLE UPSLOPE AREAS. FOR THE HIGHER  
ELEVATIONS ABOVE 5000-6000 FEET, VERY HEAVY, DISRUPTIVE SNOWFALL  
OF SEVERAL FEET IS FORECAST. IN ADDITION TO THE HEAVY RAINFALL AND  
SNOW, VERY STRONG, GUSTY WINDS AND DAMAGING HIGH SURF ARE ALSO  
EXPECTED. ALL ASSOCIATED IMPACTS WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY/TUESDAY  
BEYOND THE CURRENT FORECAST PERIOD.  
 
MEANWHILE, CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE COUNTRY WILL HAVE AN AMPLIFIED  
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE IN PLACE THAT WILL MAINTAIN WELL ABOVE AVERAGE,  
MILD WINTER TEMPERATURES FOR THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS AND THE  
MIDWEST THIS WEEKEND. DAILY MAXIMUMS WILL BE IN THE 40S FOR THE  
NORTHERN PLAINS AND THE GREAT LAKES AND THE 50S FROM THE CENTRAL  
PLAINS EAST THROUGH THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO VALLEYS. WHILE  
NOT QUITE AS ANOMALOUS, HIGHS ELSEWHERE IN THE CENTRAL/EASTERN  
U.S. WILL STILL BE AT OR ABOVE AVERAGE, WITH 30S AND 40S FOR THE  
NORTHEAST, 50S FOR THE CAROLINAS, AND 60S IN THE SOUTHEAST AND  
SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE STORM SYSTEM AND PRECIPITATION MOVING INTO  
THE SOUTHEAST WILL BRING SOME COOLER TEMPERATURES SUNDAY, DROPPING  
HIGHS INTO THE 40S AND 50S. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ON THE COOLER  
SIDE OF AVERAGE ACROSS MUCH OF THE WEST GIVEN THE UPPER-LEVEL  
TROUGH, CLOUD COVER, AND PRECIPITATION, WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE  
40S FOR THE GREAT BASIN, 50S FOR THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND  
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA, AND 60S FOR THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHERN  
CALIFORNIA.  
 
PUTNAM  
 
GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT  
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/BASICWX/BASICWX_NDFD.PHP  

 
 
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