771
FXUS01 KWBC 030810
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
309 AM EST SAT FEB 03 2024
VALID 12Z SAT FEB 03 2024 - 12Z MON FEB 05 2024
...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY FOR THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY, WITH THE RISK OF SCATTERED FLASH FLOODING ALONG THE GULF
COAST...
...MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOWFALL SATURDAY FOR PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHERN/CENTRAL ROCKIES AND EASTERN GREAT BASIN...
...STRONG ATMOSPHERIC RIVER TO BRING A CONSIDERABLE RISK FOR FLASH
FLOODING AND VERY HEAVY SNOW TO CALIFORNIA BEGINNING SATURDAY
NIGHT...
...MILD, WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST ACROSS
CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE COUNTRY THIS WEEKEND...
WIDESPREAD, ORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
EASTWARD FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY SATURDAY AHEAD OF A DEEP UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH/CLOSED LOW AND
ACCOMPANYING SURFACE FRONTAL SYSTEM. STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD
OF THE FRONT WILL FUNNEL WARM, MOIST GULF AIR NORTHWARD HELPING TO
FUEL SOME HEAVIER DOWNPOURS, PARTICULARLY FOR LOCATIONS ALONG THE
GULF COAST. A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL (LEVEL 2/4) HAS
BEEN OUTLINED FOR THIS REGION AS THE HEAVY DOWNPOURS, AND THE
THREAT FOR SOME REPEATED/TRAINING STORMS, WILL BRING THE RISK OF
SOME SCATTERED INSTANCES OF FLASH FLOODING. STORM CHANCES WILL
SHIFT INTO THE SOUTHEAST AND FLORIDA SUNDAY WITH A CONTINUED
CHANCE FOR MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL, AND THE THREAT OF
AN ISOLATED INSTANCE OR TWO OF FLASH FLOODING.
TO THE WEST, MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVER
PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL ROCKIES AND EASTERN GREAT BASIN
SATURDAY AS MOISTURE WRAPS NORTHWESTWARD AROUND THE SYSTEM OVER
THE PLAINS AND THE ACCOMPANYING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH LINGERS OVER
THE REGION. MANY OF THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE REGIONAL MOUNTAIN
RANGES WILL SEE TOTALS BETWEEN 5-10". SOME MODERATE RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE FOR THE ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS, WITH
THE CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL INCREASING FOR AREAS
IMMEDIATELY ALONG THE FRONT RANGE FROM SOUTHERN WYOMING SOUTHWARD
INTO COLORADO. THE SNOW SHOULD BEGIN TO TAPER OFF FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH OVERNIGHT SATURDAY INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS SUNDAY,
LINGERING LONGEST FOR THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WHERE A SLOW MOVING
FRONT PUSHING INTO THE REGION WILL KEEP AT LEAST LIGHT SNOW
CHANCES UP INTO THE DAY SUNDAY.
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO CALIFORNIA AS A STRONG ATMOSPHERIC RIVER
WILL BRING THE THREAT FOR CONSIDERABLE FLASH FLOODING ALONG THE
COAST AND VERY HEAVY, MOUNTAIN SNOW IN THE SIERRA. RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED TO BEGIN AS EARLY AS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT FOR CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF COASTAL CALIFORNIA WHERE A FEW INCHES OF RAIN BY EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING MAY LEAD LEAD TO SOME INITIAL INSTANCES OF
FLOODING, AND A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IS NOW IN
EFFECT. THE IMPACTS WILL RAMP UP QUICKLY DURING THE DAY SUNDAY AS
THE DEEP PACIFIC MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM OVERSPREADS
THE REGION. THE COMBINATION OF FAVORABLE ONSHORE/UPSLOPE FLOW
ALONG THE COASTAL MOUNTAIN RANGES; WARM, MOIST AIR KEEPING SNOW
LEVELS HIGH; AND REPEATED ROUNDS OF STORMS WILL LEAD TO THE THREAT
OF RAINFALL TOTALS OF 5"+ AND RAINFALL RATES OF 1" PER HOUR. A
MODERATE RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL (LEVEL 3/4) IS IN EFFECT FOR
COASTAL PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AS THESE HEAVY
RAIN TOTALS WILL BRING A CONSIDERABLE RISK FOR FLASH AND URBAN
FLOODING AS WELL AS THE THREAT FOR DEBRIS FLOWS AND MUDSLIDES. A
SLIGHT RISK IS ALSO IN EFFECT INLAND FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE SIERRA WHERE THE HIGHER SNOW
LEVELS WILL INCREASE THE THREAT FOR FLOODING FOR FAVORABLE UPSLOPE
AREAS. FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SIERRA ABOVE 5000-6000
FEET, VERY HEAVY, DISRUPTIVE SNOWFALL OF SEVERAL FEET IS FORECAST.
IN ADDITION TO THE HEAVY RAIN AND SNOW, VERY STRONG, GUSTY WINDS
AND DAMAGING HIGH SURF ARE ALSO EXPECTED. ALL ASSOCIATED IMPACTS
WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY/TUESDAY BEYOND THE CURRENT FORECAST
PERIOD.
MEANWHILE, CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE COUNTRY WILL HAVE AN AMPLIFIED
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE IN PLACE THAT WILL MAINTAIN WELL ABOVE AVERAGE,
MILD WINTER TEMPERATURES FOR THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS AND THE
MIDWEST THIS WEEKEND. DAILY MAXIMUMS WILL BE IN THE 40S FOR THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND THE GREAT LAKES AND THE 50S FROM THE CENTRAL
PLAINS EAST THROUGH THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO VALLEYS. WHILE
NOT QUITE AS ANOMALOUS, HIGHS ELSEWHERE IN THE CENTRAL/EASTERN
U.S. WILL STILL BE AT OR ABOVE AVERAGE, WITH 30S AND 40S FOR THE
NORTHEAST, 50S FOR THE CAROLINAS, AND 60S IN THE SOUTHEAST AND
SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE STORM SYSTEM AND PRECIPITATION MOVING INTO
THE SOUTHEAST WILL BRING SOME COOLER TEMPERATURES SUNDAY, DROPPING
HIGHS INTO THE 40S AND 50S. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ON THE COOLER
SIDE OF AVERAGE ACROSS MUCH OF THE WEST GIVEN UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGHING, CLOUD COVER, AND PRECIPITATION, WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN
THE 40S FOR THE GREAT BASIN, 50S FOR THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA, AND 60S FOR THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA.
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