618
FXUS01 KWBC 040806
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
306 AM EST SUN FEB 04 2024
VALID 12Z SUN FEB 04 2024 - 12Z TUE FEB 06 2024
...LIFE THREATENING FLOODING LIKELY ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA SUNDAY AND MONDAY...
...HEAVY SNOW WILL CAUSE EXTREME IMPACTS OVER MUCH OF THE SIERRA
NEVADA ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY...
...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED FOR PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHEAST AND FLORIDA SUNDAY, WITH THE CHANCE FOR SOME SEVERE
WEATHER IN SOUTH FLORIDA...
...ANOMALOUS WARMTH CONTINUES ACROSS THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS
AND UPPER/MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...
A STRONG PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM/ATMOSPHERIC RIVER EVENT WILL BRING
IMPACTFUL AND DANGEROUS FLOODING RAINS, HEAVY SNOW, STRONG WINDS,
COASTAL FLOODING, AND HIGH SURF TO CALIFORNIA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS. THE COMBINATION OF ANOMALOUSLY WARM, MOIST AIR STREAMING
IN FROM THE PACIFIC, FAVORABLE STRONG ONSHORE/UPSLOPE FLOW, AND
COOL ENOUGH AIR ALOFT FOR SOME INSTABILITY WILL LEAD TO
WIDESPREAD, HEAVY RAIN PRODUCING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH
RAIN RATES UPWARDS OF 1"/HOUR. THERE IS NOW A HIGH RISK OF
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL (LEVEL 4/4) FOR THE TRANSVERSE RANGES OF
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS THE PACIFIC SYSTEM
IS EXPECTED TO SLOW AND ALLOW FOR A LONGER DURATION EVENT WITH
NEAR CONTINUOUS RAINFALL OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. A MODERATE RISK
(LEVEL 3/4) ENCOMPASSES THE HIGH RISK ALONG THE CENTRAL COASTAL
RANGES SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE LA BASIN SUNDAY, AND FROM THE LA
BASIN SOUTHWARD ALONG THE PENINSULAR RANGES MONDAY. EXPECTED
RAINFALL TOTALS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS RANGE BETWEEN 3-6"
FROM THE CENTRAL COASTAL RANGES SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE LA BASIN AND
ALONG THE PENINSULAR RANGES IN THE MODERATE RISK AREA, AND 6-12"
INTO THE FOOTHILLS AND TRANVERSE RANGES IN THE HIGH RISK AREA.
THIS HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BRING THE THREAT FOR LIFE-THREATENING
FLASH, URBAN, AND RIVER FLOODING AS WELL AS DEBRIS FLOWS AND
MUDSLIDES. HEAVY RAINFALL TOTALS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
SCATTERED FLASH FLOODING ARE ALSO EXPECTED FURTHER INLAND FOR
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE SAN JOAQUIN INTO THE SACRAMENTO VALLEY
AND ALONG UPSLOPE PORTIONS OF THE SIERRA SUNDAY, AND PORTIONS OF
THE MOJAVE DESERT MONDAY, WITH SLIGHT RISKS (LEVEL 2/4) OF
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IN EFFECT.
HEAVY SNOW WILL BE THE HEADLINE OF THE EVENT FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS
OF THE MOUNTAIN RANGES OF NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND THE SIERRA
NEVADA, GENERALLY ABOVE 5000-6000 FEET. SNOW TOTALS OF SEVERAL
FEET ARE FORECAST FOR THE SIERRA THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. HEAVY
SNOW RATES OF 2-3"/HOUR ALONG WITH STRONG WINDS WILL LEAD TO
WHITEOUT CONDITIONS AND DANGEROUS, NEAR IMPOSSIBLE TRAVEL
CONDITIONS. HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA RANGES
WILL ALSO SEE HEAVY SNOW ABOVE 7000 FEET. IN ADDITION TO BOTH THE
FLOODING RAINS AND HEAVY SNOW, VERY STRONG, GUSTY WINDS UPWARDS OF
60-70 MPH ARE EXPECTED AND MAY LEAD TO DOWNED TREES AND POWER
OUTAGES. DANGEROUS, POTENTIALLY DAMAGING HIGH SURF AND COASTAL
FLOODING ARE ALSO LIKELY ALONG THE COAST.
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM WILL SPREAD FURTHER NORTHWARD
AND INLAND BRINGING MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW FOR THE REGIONAL
MOUNTAIN RANGES OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST, GREAT BASIN, AND
NORTHERN ROCKIES OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. SOME OF THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS COULD SEE OVER A FOOT OF SNOW, PARTICULARLY FOR THE
CENTRAL GREAT BASIN IN NEVADA NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES IN IDAHO/WYOMING. LOWER ELEVATIONS WILL SEE A MIX OF RAIN
AND SNOW, WITH LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED.
TO THE EAST, A DEEP UPPER-LEVEL LOW AND ACCOMPANYING SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE/FRONTAL SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHEAST/GULF OF MEXICO WILL
CONTINUE TO DRAW MOIST, GULF AIR NORTHWARD LEADING ORGANIZED
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST AND FLORIDA
SUNDAY. SOME LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE
CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED INSTANCE OR TWO OF FLASH FLOODING. LOCALLY
HIGHER LOW-LEVEL SHEAR FROM SOUTH FLORIDA INTO THE FLORIDA KEYS
MAY LEAD TO SOME MORE ORGANIZED, SUPERCELL STORMS. THE STORM
PREDICTION CENTER HAS ADDED A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2/5) OF SEVERE
WEATHER FOR THE THREAT OF SOME DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND AN ISOLATED
TORNADO OR TWO. ELSEWHERE, SOME LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS WILL
LINGER EARLY SUNDAY THROUGH PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
PLAINS, WITH SOME LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW ALONG PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS. PRECIPITATION CHANCES SHOULD COME DOWN
THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING, WITH MOSTLY TRANQUIL CONDITIONS EXPECTED
MONDAY. THE NORTHEAST WILL REMAIN DRY WITH NEAR AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES. ANOMALOUSLY WARM TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE FOR
PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS AND UPPER/MIDDLE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. HIGHS IN THE 40S AND EVEN SOME LOW 50S ARE
UPWARDS OF 20-30 DEGREES OVER EARLY FEBRUARY AVERAGES.
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