033
FXUS01 KWBC 041949
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
249 PM EST SUN FEB 04 2024
VALID 00Z MON FEB 05 2024 - 00Z WED FEB 07 2024
...LIFE THREATENING AND DAMAGING FLASH FLOODING LIKELY ACROSS MUCH
OF CENTRAL/SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA THROUGH MONDAY...
..HEAVY SNOW FOR PARTS OF THE SIERRA NEVADA AND THE GREAT BASIN
THE ONGOING ATMOSPHERIC RIVER EVENT WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE HEAVY
RAIN, STRONG WINDS, HIGH SURF, AND HEAVY SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. HIGH RAIN
RATES OVER VERY VULNERABLE/PRIMED SURFACES WILL LEAD TO FLASH
FLOODING TONIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA, WHICH IS WHY THERE'S A MODERATE RISK OF EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL (LEVEL 3/4) FOR THIS AREA WITH AN EMBEDDED HIGH RISK
(LEVEL 4/4) AREA OVER PARTS OF SANTA BARBARA, VENTURA AND LOS
ANGELES COUNTIES. HEAVY RAIN WILL ALSO OCCUR OVER THE FOOTHILLS OF
THE SIERRA NEVADA TONIGHT WHERE A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL (LEVEL 2/4) IS IN EFFECT. HEAVY SNOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
THE SIERRA AND SHASTA SISKIYOUS THROUGH MONDAY WHERE 1-3' OF SNOW
ARE EXPECTED WITH ISOLATED 4' AMOUNTS OVER THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS.
SOME SNOW IS ALSO LIKELY FOR THE GREAT BASIN WHERE UP TO A FOOT OF
SNOW IS POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NEVADA. STRONG WINDS
WILL CAUSE HIGH SURF UP AND DOWN THE CALIFORNIA COAST, WHIPPING
RAIN AT LOWER ELEVATIONS AND BLOWING SNOW ACROSS THE SIERRA ARE
ALSO LIKELY WITH HIGH WIND AND WINTER STORM WARNINGS IN EFFECT FOR
PARTS OF THE STATE.
THE MOISTURE PLUME SAGS SOUTH MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AND
FOCUSES ALONG A SURFACE COLD FRONT OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND
THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA. HEAVY TO EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IS LIKELY
FROM SAN LUIS COUNTY DOWN TO SAN DIEGO COUNTY, WHERE A SLIGHT RISK
OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IS IN EFFECT. ANOTHER HIGH RISK OF EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL IS IN EFFECT FOR PARTS OF LOS ANGELES AND ORANGE COUNTIES
ON MONDAY WHERE AREAL TOTALS OF 1-3" OF RAIN AND ISOLATED HIGHER
AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE. HEAVY SNOW IMPACTS WILL WANE ACROSS
NORTHERN/CENTRAL SIERRA WHILE CONTINUING OVER THE SOUTHERN SECTION
OF THE MOUNTAIN RANGE. COOL AIR WILL FILTER IN ON THE BACKSIDE OF
THE COLD FRONT AND ALLOW FOR HEAVY SNOW TO DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF THE TRANSVERSE RANGES. ABOUT ANOTHER FOOT OF SNOW IS
FORECAST FOR THE SOUTHERN SIERRA, AND 1-2' ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE
TRANSVERSE RANGES AND CENTRAL GREAT BASIN. RAIN AND SNOW WILL
CONTINUE OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT BASIN OF NEVADA WHERE AROUND A
FOOT OF SNOW IS EXPECTED.
ELSEWHERE, SOME MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE OVER COASTAL AREAS OF GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA TONIGHT
WHERE A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IS IN EFFECT (LEVEL
1/4). AROUND AN INCH OF RAINFALL IS CURRENTLY FORECAST FOR THAT
AREA. SOME LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW ARE ALSO POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN ROCKIES. UP TO A FOOT OF SNOW
IS POSSIBLE FOR PARTS OF THE CASCADES AND NORTHERN ROCKIES THROUGH
MONDAY AFTERNOON. AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE
CENTRAL U.S. THIS WEEK, LEADING TO INCREASINGLY ABNORMALLY MILD
TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN THIRDS OF THE
COUNTRY. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST
WILL BE 30-40 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE WHICH MAY TIE OR BREAK
EXISTING DAILY TEMPERATURE RECORDS.
KEBEDE
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