664  
FXUS01 KWBC 041951  
PMDSPD  
 
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD  
251 PM EST SUN FEB 04 2024  
 
VALID 00Z MON FEB 05 2024 - 00Z WED FEB 07 2024  
 
...LIFE THREATENING AND DAMAGING FLASH FLOODING LIKELY ACROSS MUCH  
OF CENTRAL/SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA THROUGH MONDAY...  
   
..HEAVY SNOW FOR PARTS OF THE SIERRA NEVADA AND THE GREAT BASIN
 
 
THE ONGOING ATMOSPHERIC RIVER EVENT WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE HEAVY  
RAIN, STRONG WINDS, HIGH SURF, AND HEAVY SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF  
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. HIGH RAIN  
RATES OVER VERY VULNERABLE/PRIMED SURFACES WILL LEAD TO FLASH  
FLOODING TONIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN  
CALIFORNIA, WHICH IS WHY THERE'S A MODERATE RISK OF EXCESSIVE  
RAINFALL (LEVEL 3/4) FOR THIS AREA WITH AN EMBEDDED HIGH RISK  
(LEVEL 4/4) AREA OVER PARTS OF SANTA BARBARA, VENTURA AND LOS  
ANGELES COUNTIES. HEAVY RAIN WILL ALSO OCCUR OVER THE FOOTHILLS OF  
THE SIERRA NEVADA TONIGHT WHERE A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE  
RAINFALL (LEVEL 2/4) IS IN EFFECT. HEAVY SNOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS  
THE SIERRA AND SHASTA SISKIYOUS THROUGH MONDAY WHERE 1-3' OF SNOW  
ARE EXPECTED WITH ISOLATED 4' AMOUNTS OVER THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS.  
SOME SNOW IS ALSO LIKELY FOR THE GREAT BASIN WHERE UP TO A FOOT OF  
SNOW IS POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NEVADA. STRONG WINDS  
WILL CAUSE HIGH SURF UP AND DOWN THE CALIFORNIA COAST, WHIPPING  
RAIN AT LOWER ELEVATIONS AND BLOWING SNOW ACROSS THE SIERRA ARE  
ALSO LIKELY WITH HIGH WIND AND WINTER STORM WARNINGS IN EFFECT FOR  
PARTS OF THE STATE.  
 
THE MOISTURE PLUME SAGS SOUTH MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AND  
FOCUSES ALONG A SURFACE COLD FRONT OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND  
THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA. HEAVY TO EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IS LIKELY  
FROM SAN LUIS COUNTY DOWN TO SAN DIEGO COUNTY, WHERE A SLIGHT RISK  
OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IS IN EFFECT. ANOTHER HIGH RISK OF EXCESSIVE  
RAINFALL IS IN EFFECT FOR PARTS OF LOS ANGELES AND ORANGE COUNTIES  
ON MONDAY WHERE AREAL TOTALS OF 1-3" OF RAIN AND ISOLATED HIGHER  
AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE. HEAVY SNOW IMPACTS WILL WANE ACROSS  
NORTHERN/CENTRAL SIERRA WHILE CONTINUING OVER THE SOUTHERN SECTION  
OF THE MOUNTAIN RANGE. COOL AIR WILL FILTER IN ON THE BACKSIDE OF  
THE COLD FRONT AND ALLOW FOR HEAVY SNOW TO DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER  
ELEVATIONS OF THE TRANSVERSE RANGES. ABOUT ANOTHER FOOT OF SNOW IS  
FORECAST FOR THE SOUTHERN SIERRA, AND 1-2' ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE  
TRANSVERSE RANGES AND CENTRAL GREAT BASIN. RAIN AND SNOW WILL  
CONTINUE OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT BASIN OF NEVADA WHERE AROUND A  
FOOT OF SNOW IS EXPECTED.  
 
ELSEWHERE, SOME MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE  
POSSIBLE OVER COASTAL AREAS OF GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA TONIGHT  
WHERE A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IS IN EFFECT (LEVEL  
1/4). AROUND AN INCH OF RAINFALL IS CURRENTLY FORECAST FOR THAT  
AREA. SOME LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW ARE ALSO POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF  
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN ROCKIES. UP TO A FOOT OF SNOW  
IS POSSIBLE FOR PARTS OF THE CASCADES AND NORTHERN ROCKIES THROUGH  
MONDAY AFTERNOON. AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE  
CENTRAL U.S. THIS WEEK, LEADING TO INCREASINGLY ABNORMALLY MILD  
TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN THIRDS OF THE  
COUNTRY. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST  
WILL BE 30-40 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE WHICH MAY TIE OR BREAK  
EXISTING DAILY TEMPERATURE RECORDS.  
 
KEBEDE  
 
GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT  
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/BASICWX/BASICWX_NDFD.PHP  

 
 
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