926
FXUS06 KWBC 052003
PMDMRD
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD
300 PM EST MON FEBRUARY 05 2024
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR FEB 11 - 15 2024
TODAY’S MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT REGARDING THE OVERALL
SYNOPTIC PATTERN AS DEPICTED BY 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES, ALTHOUGH THERE IS
LESS CONSENSUS REGARDING THE STRENGTH AND ORIENTATION OF VARIOUS FEATURES,
LEADING TO LESS CONFIDENCE IN TODAY’S TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION OUTLOOKS.
TODAY’S 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALY MANUAL BLEND FEATURES A FAIRLY AMPLIFIED RIDGE
ALONG THE WESTERN COAST OF NORTH AMERICA WITH POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES
EXTENDING EASTWARD ACROSS CANADA. A BROAD BUT WEAK TROUGH IS SITUATED
DOWNSTREAM OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONTIGUOUS U.S. (CONUS). A STRONGER
TROUGH IS FAVORED OVER THE BERING SEA, WITH NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES EXTENDING
SOUTH AND UNDERNEATH THE WEST COAST RIDGE OVER NORTHWESTERN MEXICO AND THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST.
POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES OVER CANADA FAVOR ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ALONG THE U.S.-CANADIAN BORDER, PARTICULARLY THE UPPER MIDWEST (>60%
PROBABILITY), AND ENHANCED PROBABILITIES EXTEND EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
AND NORTHEAST U.S. AND WEAKENING PROBABILITIES STRETCHING DOWN THE EAST COAST.
BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS DUE TO A COLD
AIR MASS LINGERING FROM WEEK-1. PROBABILITIES ARE HIGHEST ALONG THE ARIZONA-NEW
MEXICO BORDER (>60%) AND ENHANCED PROBABILITIES COVER MUCH OF THE GREAT BASIN
AND DESERT SOUTHWEST. NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE MOST LIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF
THE LOWER AND MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS. TROUGHING OVER THE
BERING SEA AND RIDGING OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA BRINGS SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER ALASKA,
TILTING MOST OF THE STATE TOWARDS ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES. MUCH OF HAWAII
ALSO TILTS TOWARDS ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES, CONSISTENT WITH THE ERF HAWAII
CONSOLIDATION TOOL.
RIDGING OVER THE WEST COAST RESULTS IN ENHANCED PROBABILITIES FOR BELOW-NORMAL
PRECIPITATION WEST OF THE ROCKIES, WHILE THE WEAK TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN
CONUS TILTS MUCH OF THE GREAT PLAINS AND SOUTHEAST U.S. WEAKLY TOWARD
ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION. DIFFERENCES IN MODEL SOLUTIONS REGARDING THE
SYNOPTIC FEATURES LEAD TO CONTRADICTORY PRECIPITATION SIGNALS OVER MUCH OF THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN CONUS, THEREFORE NEAR-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED
FOR MUCH OF THE MIDDLE AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO VALLEYS, AS WELL AS THE
NORTHEAST U.S. SOUTHERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC
TILTS MUCH OF ALASKA TOWARDS ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION, EXCEPT FOR THE
SOUTHERN PANHANDLE, WHERE BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS WEAKLY FAVORED UNDER
THE NORTHERN EXTENSION OF THE WEST COAST RIDGE. THE ERF-HAWAII CONSOLIDATION
INDICATES A WEAK TILT TOWARDS BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR THE ISLANDS,
SLIGHTLY ENHANCED FOR THE BIG ISLAND.
THE OFFICIAL 6-10 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF 38% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 37% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 8, AND 25% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY
8
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: ABOUT AVERAGE, 3 OUT OF 5, WITH
REASONABLE AGREEMENT AMONG MODEL ENSEMBLES REGARDING SYNOPTIC PATTERN, OFFSET
BY A WIDE RANGE OF SOLUTIONS OFFERED BY THE VARIOUS FORECAST TOOLS.
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR FEB 13 - 19 2024
MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT REGARDING THE SYNOPTIC PICTURE RELATIVE TO THE
6-10 DAY PERIOD. ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS FOR THE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES FEATURE
CONTINUED POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES OVER CANADA WITH POSITIVE ANOMALIES
ENCROACHING FURTHER INTO EASTERN ALASKA. TROUGHING IS FAVORED TO CONTINUE OVER
THE EASTERN CONUS, AS WELL AS AN ACTIVE SUBTROPICAL JET OVER THE PACIFIC,
INDICATED BY NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES EXTENDING OVER NORTHERN MEXICO AND
WESTWARD INTO THE EAST PACIFIC. AN AMPLIFIED TROUGH IS FAVORED TO PERSIST OVER
THE BERING SEA.
WITH AMPLIFIED RIDGING OVER NORTHWESTERN CANADA AND BROAD TROUGHING OVER
EASTERN NORTH AMERICA SETTING UP NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT DOWNSTREAM OF THE
ROCKIES, BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR MUCH OF THE CONUS,
ESPECIALLY PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND SOUTHEASTERN CONUS WHERE
PROBABILITIES EXCEED 50%. THE UPPER MIDWEST STILL TILTS SLIGHTLY TOWARDS
ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES, WHICH IS MOSTLY FRONT-LOADED AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
PERIOD. RIDGING OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TILTS THE WEST COAST TOWARDS
ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES. CONTINUED SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AT THE
SURFACE AND ALOFT FAVORS ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MOST OF ALASKA, WHILE
THE HAWAII ERF CONSOLIDATION FAVORS BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE HAWAIIAN
ISLANDS.
AMPLIFIED RIDGING OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST FAVORS BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION
FOR THE NORTHWESTERN CONUS, AS WELL AS DOWNSTREAM OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN
CONUS NORTH OF THE GULF COAST. THE ACTIVE SUBTROPICAL JET IS FAVORED TO
CONTINUE ADVECTING MOISTURE OVER SOUTHERN NORTH AMERICA, RESULTING IN
ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION FAVORED FOR MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN CONUS, ESPECIALLY
ALONG THE U.S.-MEXICO BORDER WHERE PROBABILITIES EXCEED 60%. ONSHORE FLOW
CONTINUES TO FAVOR ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR PORTIONS OF MAINLAND ALASKA,
WHILE INCREASING POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES OVER THE CANADIAN ROCKIES TILTS THE
ALASKAN PANHANDLE AND PORTIONS OF THE NORTH SLOPE TOWARDS BELOW-NORMAL
PRECIPITATION. HAWAII ALSO LEANS TOWARDS BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR THE
WEEK-2 PERIOD, CONSISTENT WITH THE ERF CONSOLIDATION TOOL.
THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF: 34% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 33% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 11, AND 33% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON
DAY 11
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: ABOUT AVERAGE, 3 OUT OF 5, DUE TO
REASONABLE AGREEMENT AMONG MODEL SOLUTIONS ON THE OVERALL MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION
PATTERN, OFFSET BY WEAKER PROBABILITIES IN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TOOLS
AND DIVERGING SOLUTIONS AMONG MODEL ENSEMBLES.
FORECASTER: DANIEL BARANDIARAN
NOTES:
AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OCCASIONALLY MANUAL
INTERVENTION IS NECESSARY TO ADDRESS QUALITY CONTROL AND CONSISTENCY ISSUES. IN
THESE CASES, FORECASTS ARE MANUALLY DRAWN BUT A FULL DISCUSSION IS NOT ISSUED.
THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS THE SAME AS
THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW
THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER (ORANGE,
"A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N"). HISTORICAL AVERAGE
VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST (DASHES, "F"). LABELS ON THE
SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).
PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WETTER (GREEN,
"A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N"). HISTORICAL MEDIAN VALUES
FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST (DASHES, "INCHES"). LABELS ON THE
SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).
PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL BE A
GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY EVEN A NORMAL
(I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES
A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO
PRECIPITATION.
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1991-2020 BASE PERIOD MEANS AS REFERENCE IN
THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS.
THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON
FEBRUARY 15.
ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
19920202 - 19950123 - 19690217 - 19520215 - 19600122
ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
19690218 - 19520216 - 19950122 - 19600120 - 19690213
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR FEB 11 - 15 2024
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON A B OREGON N B NRN CALIF N B
SRN CALIF B B IDAHO N B NEVADA B B
W MONTANA A N E MONTANA A N WYOMING N N
UTAH B B ARIZONA B B COLORADO B N
NEW MEXICO B N N DAKOTA A A S DAKOTA A A
NEBRASKA A A KANSAS N N OKLAHOMA N A
N TEXAS B A S TEXAS B A W TEXAS B A
MINNESOTA A N IOWA A N MISSOURI N N
ARKANSAS N N LOUISIANA N A WISCONSIN A N
ILLINOIS A N MISSISSIPPI N A MICHIGAN A N
INDIANA A N OHIO A N KENTUCKY A N
TENNESSEE N N ALABAMA N A NEW YORK A N
VERMONT A N NEW HAMP A N MAINE A N
MASS A N CONN A N RHODE IS A N
PENN A N NEW JERSEY A N W VIRGINIA A A
MARYLAND A N DELAWARE A N VIRGINIA A A
N CAROLINA A A S CAROLINA A A GEORGIA A A
FL PNHDL A A FL PENIN A A AK N SLOPE A A
AK ALEUTIAN A A AK WESTERN A A AK INT BSN A A
AK S INT A A AK SO COAST A A AK PNHDL A N
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR FEB 13 - 19 2024
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON A B OREGON A B NRN CALIF A A
SRN CALIF B A IDAHO B B NEVADA B A
W MONTANA B B E MONTANA B N WYOMING B B
UTAH B A ARIZONA B A COLORADO B A
NEW MEXICO B A N DAKOTA N N S DAKOTA N N
NEBRASKA N N KANSAS B N OKLAHOMA B A
N TEXAS B A S TEXAS B A W TEXAS B A
MINNESOTA N N IOWA N B MISSOURI B B
ARKANSAS B B LOUISIANA B A WISCONSIN N B
ILLINOIS N B MISSISSIPPI B B MICHIGAN N B
INDIANA B B OHIO B B KENTUCKY B B
TENNESSEE B B ALABAMA B B NEW YORK B B
VERMONT B B NEW HAMP B B MAINE B B
MASS B B CONN B B RHODE IS B B
PENN B B NEW JERSEY B B W VIRGINIA B B
MARYLAND B B DELAWARE B B VIRGINIA B B
N CAROLINA B B S CAROLINA B B GEORGIA B B
FL PNHDL B A FL PENIN B A AK N SLOPE A N
AK ALEUTIAN A N AK WESTERN A A AK INT BSN A N
AK S INT A A AK SO COAST A A AK PNHDL A B
LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW B - BELOW
THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.
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