793
FXUS06 KWBC 062003
PMDMRD
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD
300 PM EST TUE FEBRUARY 06 2024
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR FEB 12 - 16 2024
TODAY’S MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT REGARDING THE OVERALL
SYNOPTIC PATTERN AS DEPICTED BY 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES, ALTHOUGH THERE IS
LESS CONSENSUS REGARDING THE STRENGTH AND ORIENTATION OF VARIOUS FEATURES,
LEADING TO LESS CONFIDENCE IN TODAY’S TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION OUTLOOKS.
TODAY’S 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALY MANUAL BLEND FEATURES A FAIRLY AMPLIFIED RIDGE
ALONG THE WESTERN COAST OF NORTH AMERICA WITH POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES
EXTENDING EASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN CANADA. A BROAD TROUGH IS SITUATED
DOWNSTREAM OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONTIGUOUS U.S. (CONUS). AN AMPLIFIED
TROUGH IS FAVORED OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC, WITH NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES
EXTENDING SOUTH AND UNDERNEATH THE WEST COAST RIDGE OVER NORTHWESTERN MEXICO
AND THE DESERT SOUTHWEST.
POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES OVER CANADA FAVOR ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES
FOR THE UPPER MIDWEST (>50% PROBABILITY), AND WEAKER PROBABILITIES EXTEND
EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST U.S.. BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ARE FAVORED FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS DUE TO A COLD AIR MASS LINGERING FROM
WEEK-1. PROBABILITIES ARE HIGHEST ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION (>50%) AND
ENHANCED PROBABILITIES COVER MUCH OF THE GREAT BASIN AND DESERT SOUTHWEST. WITH
PERSISTENT NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES OVER THE EASTERN CONUS CHANCES FOR
BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES NOW EXTEND INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND SOUTHEAST
U.S. RELATIVE TO YESTERDAY’S OUTLOOK. TROUGHING OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC AND
RIDGING OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA BRINGS SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER ALASKA, TILTING MOST
OF THE STATE TOWARDS ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE SOUTHEASTERN ISLANDS OF
HAWAII ALSO TILT TOWARDS ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES WHILE NEAR-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR THE NORTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE STATE, CONSISTENT
WITH THE ERF HAWAII CONSOLIDATION TOOL.
RIDGING OVER THE WEST COAST RESULTS IN ENHANCED PROBABILITIES FOR BELOW-NORMAL
PRECIPITATION WEST OF THE ROCKIES, WHILE THE WEAK TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN
CONUS TILTS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS WEAKLY TOWARD ABOVE-NORMAL
PRECIPITATION, AND AN ACTIVE SUBTROPICAL BRANCH OF THE JET STREAM BRINGS
ENHANCED CHANCES FOR ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION TO PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS AND FLORIDA. MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT REGARDING THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS, AND BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS NOW FAVORED FOR
MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS AS THE UPSTREAM RIDGE CONTINUES TO
AMPLIFY. SOUTHERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC TILTS
MUCH OF SOUTHERN AND WESTERN ALASKA TOWARDS ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION, WHILE
THE PANHANDLE AND PORTIONS OF THE ALASKA-CANADA BORDER ARE FAVORED FOR
BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION UNDER THE NORTHERN EXTENSION OF THE WEST COAST
RIDGE. THE ERF-HAWAII CONSOLIDATION INDICATES NEAR-NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR
MOST OF THE ISLANDS, WHILE THE BIG ISLAND LEANS TOWARDS BELOW-NORMAL
PRECIPITATION.
THE OFFICIAL 6-10 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF 38% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 25% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 8, AND 37% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY
8
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: ABOUT AVERAGE, 3 OUT OF 5, WITH
REASONABLE AGREEMENT AMONG MODEL ENSEMBLES REGARDING SYNOPTIC PATTERN, OFFSET
BY A WIDE RANGE OF SOLUTIONS OFFERED BY THE VARIOUS FORECAST TOOLS.
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR FEB 14 - 20 2024
MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT REGARDING THE SYNOPTIC PICTURE RELATIVE TO THE
6-10 DAY PERIOD. ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS FOR THE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES FEATURE
CONTINUED POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES OVER CANADA WITH THE WEST COAST RIDGING
CONTINUING TO AMPLIFY OVER ALASKA. TROUGHING IS FAVORED TO CONTINUE OVER THE
EASTERN CONUS, AS WELL AS AN ACTIVE SUBTROPICAL JET OVER THE PACIFIC, INDICATED
BY NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES EXTENDING OVER NORTHERN MEXICO AND WESTWARD INTO
THE EAST PACIFIC. AN AMPLIFIED TROUGH IS FAVORED TO PERSIST OVER THE NORTH
PACIFIC.
WITH AMPLIFIED RIDGING OVER NORTHWESTERN CANADA AND BROAD TROUGHING OVER
EASTERN NORTH AMERICA SETTING UP NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT DOWNSTREAM OF THE
ROCKIES, BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR MUCH OF THE CONUS,
ESPECIALLY PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS WHERE PROBABILITIES EXCEED 60%.
THE UPPER MIDWEST IS FAVORED FOR NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES, WITH LINGERING BUT
QUICKLY FADING ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES EARLY IN THE PERIOD. RIDGING OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST TILTS THE WEST COAST TOWARDS ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
CONTINUED SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT FAVORS
ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MOST OF ALASKA, WHILE THE HAWAII ERF
CONSOLIDATION FAVORS BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS.
AMPLIFIED RIDGING OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST FAVORS BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION
FOR THE NORTHWESTERN CONUS, AS WELL AS DOWNSTREAM OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN
CONUS NORTH OF THE GULF COAST. THE ACTIVE SUBTROPICAL JET IS FAVORED TO
CONTINUE ADVECTING MOISTURE OVER SOUTHERN NORTH AMERICA, RESULTING IN
ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION FAVORED FOR MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN CONUS, ESPECIALLY
ALONG THE U.S.-MEXICO BORDER WHERE PROBABILITIES EXCEED 60%. ONSHORE FLOW
CONTINUES TO FAVOR ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR PORTIONS OF MAINLAND ALASKA,
WHILE INCREASING POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES OVER THE CANADIAN ROCKIES TILTS THE
ALASKAN PANHANDLE AND THE NORTH SLOPE TOWARDS BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION. THE
BIG ISLAND OF HAWAII ALSO LEANS TOWARDS BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR THE
WEEK-2 PERIOD WHILE NEAR-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR THE REST OF THE
STATE, CONSISTENT WITH THE ERF CONSOLIDATION TOOL.
THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF: 34% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 33% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 11, AND 33% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON
DAY 11
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: ABOUT AVERAGE, 3 OUT OF 5, DUE TO
REASONABLE AGREEMENT AMONG MODEL SOLUTIONS ON THE OVERALL MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION
PATTERN, OFFSET BY WEAKER PROBABILITIES IN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TOOLS
AND DIVERGING SOLUTIONS AMONG MODEL ENSEMBLES.
FORECASTER: DANIEL BARANDIARAN
NOTES:
AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OCCASIONALLY MANUAL
INTERVENTION IS NECESSARY TO ADDRESS QUALITY CONTROL AND CONSISTENCY ISSUES. IN
THESE CASES, FORECASTS ARE MANUALLY DRAWN BUT A FULL DISCUSSION IS NOT ISSUED.
THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS THE SAME AS
THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW
THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER (ORANGE,
"A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N"). HISTORICAL AVERAGE
VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST (DASHES, "F"). LABELS ON THE
SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).
PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WETTER (GREEN,
"A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N"). HISTORICAL MEDIAN VALUES
FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST (DASHES, "INCHES"). LABELS ON THE
SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).
PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL BE A
GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY EVEN A NORMAL
(I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES
A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO
PRECIPITATION.
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1991-2020 BASE PERIOD MEANS AS REFERENCE IN
THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS.
THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON
FEBRUARY 15.
ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
19690217 - 19510220 - 19600122 - 19660118 - 19950123
ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
19690218 - 19600121 - 19950122 - 19660119 - 19790127
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR FEB 12 - 16 2024
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON N B OREGON B B NRN CALIF N B
SRN CALIF B B IDAHO B B NEVADA B B
W MONTANA B B E MONTANA N A WYOMING B N
UTAH B B ARIZONA B B COLORADO B N
NEW MEXICO B A N DAKOTA A A S DAKOTA N N
NEBRASKA N N KANSAS N N OKLAHOMA N N
N TEXAS B A S TEXAS B A W TEXAS B A
MINNESOTA A N IOWA A B MISSOURI N B
ARKANSAS B B LOUISIANA B B WISCONSIN A B
ILLINOIS N B MISSISSIPPI B B MICHIGAN A B
INDIANA N B OHIO N B KENTUCKY B B
TENNESSEE B B ALABAMA B B NEW YORK A B
VERMONT A B NEW HAMP A B MAINE A B
MASS N B CONN N B RHODE IS N B
PENN N B NEW JERSEY N B W VIRGINIA N B
MARYLAND N N DELAWARE N N VIRGINIA N N
N CAROLINA N N S CAROLINA N N GEORGIA B B
FL PNHDL B A FL PENIN B A AK N SLOPE A A
AK ALEUTIAN A A AK WESTERN A A AK INT BSN A N
AK S INT A A AK SO COAST A A AK PNHDL A B
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR FEB 14 - 20 2024
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON N B OREGON A B NRN CALIF A A
SRN CALIF B A IDAHO B B NEVADA B A
W MONTANA B B E MONTANA B N WYOMING B N
UTAH B A ARIZONA B A COLORADO B A
NEW MEXICO B A N DAKOTA N N S DAKOTA N N
NEBRASKA N N KANSAS B A OKLAHOMA B A
N TEXAS B A S TEXAS B A W TEXAS B A
MINNESOTA N B IOWA N B MISSOURI B B
ARKANSAS B B LOUISIANA B A WISCONSIN N B
ILLINOIS B B MISSISSIPPI B B MICHIGAN N B
INDIANA B B OHIO B B KENTUCKY B B
TENNESSEE B B ALABAMA B B NEW YORK B B
VERMONT B B NEW HAMP B B MAINE B B
MASS B B CONN B B RHODE IS B B
PENN B B NEW JERSEY B B W VIRGINIA B B
MARYLAND B B DELAWARE B B VIRGINIA B B
N CAROLINA B B S CAROLINA B B GEORGIA B B
FL PNHDL B A FL PENIN B A AK N SLOPE A B
AK ALEUTIAN A N AK WESTERN A N AK INT BSN A N
AK S INT A A AK SO COAST A A AK PNHDL N B
LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW B - BELOW
THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.
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