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FXUS06 KWBC 072002
PMDMRD
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD
300 PM EST WED FEBRUARY 07 2024
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR FEB 13 - 17 2024
TODAY’S MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT REGARDING THE OVERALL
SYNOPTIC PATTERN AS DEPICTED BY 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES, ALTHOUGH ONCE AGAIN
THERE IS LESS CONSENSUS REGARDING THE STRENGTH AND ORIENTATION OF VARIOUS
FEATURES. TODAY’S 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALY MANUAL BLEND FEATURES AN AMPLIFIED
RIDGE ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN COAST OF NORTH AMERICA WITH POSITIVE HEIGHT
ANOMALIES EXTENDING NORTHWARD INTO THE ARCTIC OCEAN AND EASTWARD ACROSS
NORTHERN CANADA. A BROAD TROUGH IS SITUATED DOWNSTREAM, CENTERED OVER THE NORTH
ATLANTIC WITH NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES TRAILING OVER THE NORTHEASTERN
CONTIGUOUS U.S. (CONUS). AN AMPLIFIED TROUGH IS FAVORED OVER THE BERING SEA AND
NORTH PACIFIC, WITH NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES EXTENDING SOUTH AND UNDERNEATH
THE WEST COAST RIDGE OVER NORTHWESTERN MEXICO AND THE DESERT SOUTHWEST.
ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE SLIGHTLY FAVORED FOR THE UPPER MIDWEST AS WARMER
AIR LINGERS OVER THE REGION FROM WEEK-1. ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO
FAVORED ALONG PORTIONS OF THE WEST COAST AS RIDGING INTENSIFIES OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. MUCH OF THE REST OF THE CONUS TILTS TOWARDS BELOW-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AS THE COMBINATION OF THE WEST COAST RIDGING AND BROAD TROUGHING
OVER THE NORTHEAST CONUS ALLOWS COLER AIR TO MOVE IN FROM CANADA. TROUGHING
OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC AND RIDGING OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA BRINGS SOUTHERLY FLOW
OVER ALASKA, TILTING MOST OF THE STATE TOWARDS ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES. FOR
HAWAII, OAHU AND NORTHWESTERN ISLANDS ARE SLIGHTLY FAVORED FOR BELOW-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WHILE NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE MOST LIKELY FOR THE REST OF THE
STATE, CONSISTENT WITH THE ERF HAWAII CONSOLIDATION TOOL.
RIDGING OVER THE WEST COAST TILTS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWESTERN CONUS AND GREAT
BASIN TOWARDS BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION, AND DRY CONTINENTAL FLOW ON THE
DOWNSTREAM SIDE OF THIS RIDGE ALSO FAVORS BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR MUCH
OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS. THE ACTIVE SUBTROPICAL JET BRINGS CHANCES FOR
ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR MUCH OF CALIFORNIA, THE DESERT SOUTHWEST, AND
SOUTHERN PLAINS, AS WELL AS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION
IS ALSO SLIGHTLY FAVORED FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN MONTANA, CONSISTENT WITH
GUIDANCE FROM VARIOUS FORECAST TOOLS. AMPLIFYING RIDGING OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST RESULTS IN AN EXPANSION OF BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION FAVORED FOR
ALASKA RELATIVE TO YESTERDAY’S FORECAST, NOW COVERING MOST OF THE EASTERN
MAINLAND AND ALL OF THE PANHANDLE. PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN ALASKA STILL LEAN
TOWARDS ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION WITH TROUGHING OVER THE BERING SEA. THE
HAWAII-CON TOOL INDICATES NEAR-NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR MOST OF THE STATE
EXCEPT FOR THE BIG ISLAND, WHERE BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS SLIGHTLY FAVORED.
THE OFFICIAL 6-10 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF 34% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 33% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 8, AND 33% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY
8
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: ABOUT AVERAGE, 3 OUT OF 5, WITH
REASONABLE AGREEMENT AMONG MODEL ENSEMBLES REGARDING SYNOPTIC PATTERN, OFFSET
BY A WIDE RANGE OF SOLUTIONS OFFERED BY THE VARIOUS FORECAST TOOLS.
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR FEB 15 - 21 2024
THE WEEK-2 SYNOPTIC PICTURE FEATURES A SIMILAR AND PROGRESSIVE PATTERN RELATIVE
TO THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD. MODELS FAVOR RIDGING OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TO
CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY AND TO BE DISPLACED NORTHWARD AS WELL, WHILE NEGATIVE
HEIGHT ANOMALIES ASSOCIATED WITH THE SUBTROPICAL JET ENCROACH FURTHER INTO THE
WESTERN CONUS. AMPLIFIED TROUGHING IS FAVORED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NORTH
ATLANTIC ALONG WITH POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES OVER GREENLAND, INDICATIVE OF A
NEGATIVE ARCTIC OSCILLATION (AO).
CONTINUED RIDGING OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND AN INTENSIFYING NEGATIVE AO
FAVOR BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MOST OF THE CONUS EAST OF THE ROCKIES, WITH
THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES (>60%) OVER PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC AND COASTAL
NORTHEAST U.S., WHILE NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE INDICATED FOR THE UPPER
MIDWEST BY A CONSENSUS OF FORECAST TOOLS. ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED
ALONG THE WEST COAST AND PORTIONS OF THE GREAT BASIN AS THE SUBTROPICAL JET
CONTINUES TO ADVECT MODERATING PACIFIC AIR OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. AMPLIFYING
RIDGING OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA AND ALASKA RESULTS IN A CONTINUED TILT TOWARDS
ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF MAINLAND ALASKA, WHILE NEAR-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELIEST FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN MAINLAND AND BELOW-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE SLIGHTLY FAVORED FOR THE PANHANDLE AS THE SHIFTING RIDGE
ALLOWS COLDER AIR TO MOVE UNDERNEATH AND INTO THE REGION. THE HAWAII-CON FAVORS
BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE STATE, WITH SLIGHTLY ENHANCED PROBABILITIES
FOR OAHU AND THE NORTHWESTERN ISLANDS.
AS THE AMPLIFIED RIDGE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST IS DISPLACED NORTHWARD,
MOISTURE FROM THE ACTIVE SUBTROPICAL JET IS FAVORED TO CONTINUE ADVECTING
MOISTURE INTO THE WEST COAST, RESULTING IN AN EXPANDING AREA OF ABOVE-NORMAL
PRECIPITATION FAVORED OVER THE WESTERN CONUS, ESPECIALLY FOR MUCH OF CALIFORNIA
AND ALONG THE U.S.-MEXICO BORDER WHERE PROBABILITIES EXCEED 60%. ABOVE-NORMAL
PRECIPITATION IS NOW ALSO FAVORED FOR MUCH OF THE GREAT PLAINS, WHILE
BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
NORTHEASTERN CONUS. BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION ALSO REMAINS SLIGHTLY FAVORED
FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN WASINGTON AND IDAHO AND ADJACENT MONTANA. AS RIDGING
CONTINUES TO BUILD AND MOVE NORTHWARD ALONG THE WEST COAST, PREVAILING FLOW
OVER ALASKA BECOMES MORE SOUTHEASTERLY, REDUCING ONSHORE MOISTURE ADVECTION AND
RESULTING IN A TILT TOWARDS BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR MOST OF THE STATE.
THE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW IS MORE FAVORABLE TO MOISTURE ADVECTION ALONG THE
SOUTHWESTERN COAST AND ALEUTIAN ISLANDS, WHERE NEAR-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS
MOST LIKELY. NEAR-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS INDICATED FOR ALL OF THE HAWAIIAN
ISLANDS, CONSISTENT WITH THE ERF CONSOLIDATION TOOL.
THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF: 34% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 33% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 11, AND 33% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON
DAY 11
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: ABOUT AVERAGE, 3 OUT OF 5, DUE TO
REASONABLE AGREEMENT AMONG MODEL SOLUTIONS ON THE OVERALL MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION
PATTERN, OFFSET BY WEAKER PROBABILITIES IN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TOOLS
AND DIVERGING SOLUTIONS AMONG MODEL ENSEMBLES.
FORECASTER: DANIEL BARANDIARAN
NOTES:
AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OCCASIONALLY MANUAL
INTERVENTION IS NECESSARY TO ADDRESS QUALITY CONTROL AND CONSISTENCY ISSUES. IN
THESE CASES, FORECASTS ARE MANUALLY DRAWN BUT A FULL DISCUSSION IS NOT ISSUED.
THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS THE SAME AS
THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW
THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER (ORANGE,
"A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N"). HISTORICAL AVERAGE
VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST (DASHES, "F"). LABELS ON THE
SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).
PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WETTER (GREEN,
"A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N"). HISTORICAL MEDIAN VALUES
FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST (DASHES, "INCHES"). LABELS ON THE
SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).
PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL BE A
GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY EVEN A NORMAL
(I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES
A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO
PRECIPITATION.
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1991-2020 BASE PERIOD MEANS AS REFERENCE IN
THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS.
THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON
FEBRUARY 15.
ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
19510220 - 19690218 - 19550118 - 19790127 - 19660118
ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
19510220 - 19690218 - 19660119 - 19790127 - 19730203
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR FEB 13 - 17 2024
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON N B OREGON A B NRN CALIF A A
SRN CALIF B A IDAHO B B NEVADA N B
W MONTANA B N E MONTANA B A WYOMING B N
UTAH B B ARIZONA B A COLORADO B B
NEW MEXICO B A N DAKOTA N N S DAKOTA N N
NEBRASKA N N KANSAS N N OKLAHOMA N N
N TEXAS B A S TEXAS B A W TEXAS B A
MINNESOTA A B IOWA A B MISSOURI N B
ARKANSAS B B LOUISIANA B A WISCONSIN A B
ILLINOIS N B MISSISSIPPI B B MICHIGAN A B
INDIANA N B OHIO N B KENTUCKY B B
TENNESSEE B B ALABAMA B B NEW YORK B B
VERMONT B B NEW HAMP B B MAINE N B
MASS B B CONN B B RHODE IS B B
PENN B B NEW JERSEY B B W VIRGINIA B B
MARYLAND B B DELAWARE B B VIRGINIA B B
N CAROLINA B B S CAROLINA B B GEORGIA B B
FL PNHDL B N FL PENIN B A AK N SLOPE A B
AK ALEUTIAN A A AK WESTERN A N AK INT BSN A B
AK S INT A N AK SO COAST A A AK PNHDL N B
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR FEB 15 - 21 2024
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON A B OREGON A A NRN CALIF A A
SRN CALIF B A IDAHO B N NEVADA A A
W MONTANA B N E MONTANA B A WYOMING B A
UTAH N A ARIZONA B A COLORADO B A
NEW MEXICO B A N DAKOTA B N S DAKOTA B N
NEBRASKA B A KANSAS B A OKLAHOMA B A
N TEXAS B A S TEXAS B A W TEXAS B A
MINNESOTA N B IOWA N N MISSOURI B N
ARKANSAS B N LOUISIANA B A WISCONSIN N B
ILLINOIS B B MISSISSIPPI B N MICHIGAN B B
INDIANA B B OHIO B B KENTUCKY B B
TENNESSEE B B ALABAMA B A NEW YORK B B
VERMONT B B NEW HAMP B B MAINE B B
MASS B B CONN B B RHODE IS B B
PENN B B NEW JERSEY B B W VIRGINIA B B
MARYLAND B B DELAWARE B B VIRGINIA B B
N CAROLINA B N S CAROLINA B A GEORGIA B A
FL PNHDL B A FL PENIN B A AK N SLOPE A B
AK ALEUTIAN A N AK WESTERN A B AK INT BSN A B
AK S INT N N AK SO COAST N N AK PNHDL N B
LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW B - BELOW
THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.
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