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FXUS06 KWBC 122003
PMDMRD
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD
300 PM EST MON FEBRUARY 12 2024
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR FEB 18 - 22 2024
A TRANSIENT 500-HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT PATTERN IS FORECAST ACROSS NORTH
AMERICA DURING THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD. INITIALLY, ANOMALOUS TROUGHING IS PREDICTED
OFF THE WEST COAST OF THE CONUS AND ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN CANADA, WITH A
SHORTWAVE FEATURE FORECAST TO BE MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. THE WEST
COAST TROUGH IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN BY THE END OF THE PERIOD, WITH THE 0Z ECMWF
AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLES DEPICTING MORE RIDGING IN THE WEST BY DAY-10. THE ECMWF
ALSO RELOADS THE TROUGHING IN THE EAST TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD, WITH THE
GEFS AND CANADIAN BEING WEAKER WITH THIS FEATURE. GIVEN THE MODEL DIFFERENCES
AND TRANSIENT PATTERN, NEAR-NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS ARE FAVORED ACROSS MUCH OF
THE CONUS IN TODAY’S MANUAL BLEND, WITH LARGER NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES
PREDICTED NEAR THE WEST COAST, UPPER GREAT LAKES, AND NORTHEAST. ACROSS ALASKA,
TROUGHING EXPANDING ACROSS THE BERING SEA FAVORS AN EROSION OF THE RIDGE
INITIALLY PREDICTED OVER THE MAINLAND. POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES ARE PREDICTED
ACROSS THE MAINLAND AND SOUTHEAST ALASKA UNDERNEATH THIS INITIAL RIDGING, WITH
NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES FORECAST OVER THE ALEUTIANS. NEAR-NORMAL HEIGHTS ARE
PREDICTED ACROSS HAWAII.
THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST ACROSS THE CONUS IS RATHER UNCERTAIN AS DYNAMICAL
MODELS GENERALLY FAVOR MORE WARMING, WHILE STATISTICAL TOOLS MAINTAIN A
RELATIVELY COOLER PATTERN, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER. TELECONNECTION
ANALYSIS WITH THE NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALY CENTER OVER SOUTHEASTERN CANADA
FAVORS WIDESPREAD BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN
U.S, AND THIS IS SUPPORTED BY ANALOG GUIDANCE AS WELL. HOWEVER, THE ECMWF
REFORECAST TOOL, AND TO SOME EXTENT THE GEFS REFORECAST TOOL, TILT THE ODDS
TOWARD ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS MUCH OF THE CONUS. THE UNCALIBRATED
GUIDANCE IS GENERALLY COOLER ACROSS THE EASTERN SEABOARD COMPARED TO THE
REFORECAST COUNTERPARTS. LEANING MORE ON THE STATISTICAL GUIDANCE AS WELL AS
CONTINUITY FROM YESTERDAY’S FORECAST, INCREASED PROBABILITIES FOR BELOW-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE CONUS, AND ALSO ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST WHICH WILL BE UNDERNEATH THE INFLUENCE OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHING
EARLY IN THE PERIOD. NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED ACROSS THE REMAINDER
OF THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS. CONVERSELY, PROBABILITIES FOR NEAR- TO
ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE ENHANCED FOR MOST OF THE WEST DUE TO INCREASED
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND WEAK RIDGING AHEAD OF THE TROUGHING OFF THE WEST COAST.
ELEVATED CHANCES FOR ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE PREDICTED FOR MUCH OF ALASKA
AS UPSTREAM TROUGHING IMPARTS ENHANCED SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE STATE, WITH
INCREASED NEAR- TO BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURE PROBABILITIES REMAINING ACROSS
SOUTHEAST ALASKA. MODEL DIFFERENCES DECREASE CONFIDENCE ACROSS SOUTHEAST ALASKA
,AS THE ECMWF (GEFS) REFORECAST TOOL DEPICTS INCREASED CHANCES FOR ABOVE-
(BELOW-) NORMAL TEMPERATURES DUE TO A MORE (LESS) AMPLIFIED TROUGH AND STRONGER
(WEAKER) ONSHORE FLOW. PROBABILITIES FOR BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE SLIGHTLY
INCREASED ACROSS HAWAII, CONSISTENT WITH THE CONSOLIDATION FORECAST TOOL.
EARLY IN THE PERIOD, STRONG ONSHORE FLOW IS FORECAST ACROSS CALIFORNIA AND
ADJACENT PARTS OF THE SOUTHWEST, FAVORING HIGH PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE-NORMAL
PRECIPITATION OVER THESE AREAS. LINGERING IMPACTS FROM SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
EARLY IN THE PERIOD FAVOR ENHANCED CHANCES FOR ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION
ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA, WITH A DRYING TREND PREDICTED IN THE WAKE OF THIS
SYSTEM RESULTING IN ENHANCED PROBABILITIES FOR BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS, LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, AND INTERIOR SOUTHEAST. A
SYSTEM EJECTING OUT OF THE TROUGH NEAR THE WEST COAST FAVORS A SLIGHT TILT
TOWARD ENHANCED ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES STRETCHING ACROSS THE
MIDWEST, WITH SLIGHTLY ENHANCED ODDS OF BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION FAVORED
ACROSS NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA AND MINNESOTA, FARTHER DISPLACED FROM THE
POTENTIAL TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM. TROUGHING AND ENHANCED SOUTHERLY FLOW FAVOR
ELEVATED PROBABILITIES OF ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION ACROSS SOUTHERN ALASKA,
WITH NEAR- TO BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES ELEVATED ACROSS NORTHERN
ALASKA. NEAR-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED ACROSS SOUTHEAST ALASKA GIVEN THE
AFOREMENTIONED DISCREPANCIES BETWEEN THE DEPICTION OF THE TROUGH IN THE ECMWF
AND GEFS. WEAK RIDGING TO THE SOUTH OF HAWAII FAVORS ELEVATED CHANCES FOR
NEAR-NORMAL PRECIPITATION ACROSS MUCH OF THE STATE, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE
SOUTHERN PART OF THE BIG ISLAND WHERE BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES
ARE SLIGHTLY ENHANCED.
THE OFFICIAL 6-10 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF 35% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 35% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 8, AND 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY
8
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: BELOW AVERAGE, 2 OUT OF 5, DUE TO
A TRANSIENT MID-LEVEL HEIGHT PATTERN AND DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE VARIOUS
FORECAST TOOLS REGARDING THE TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION OUTLOOKS ACROSS THE
CONUS AND ALASKA.
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR FEB 20 - 26 2024
THE LONGWAVE 500-HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT PATTERN IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE
SHIFTING EASTWARD DURING WEEK-2. THE TROUGHING ACROSS ALASKA IS FORECAST TO
BUILD INTO THE WESTERN CONUS, WITH A TREND TOWARD A MORE ZONAL MID-LEVEL FLOW
PATTERN FAVORED ACROSS THE EAST, WITH SOME HINTS OF RIDGING IN THE 0Z GEFS AND
CANADIAN ENSEMBLES BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. THE MANUAL 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND
FOR WEEK-2 CONTINUES TO DEPICT NEAR-NORMAL HEIGHTS FOR MOST OF THE CONUS, WITH
SLIGHTLY BELOW-NORMAL HEIGHTS FAVORED ACROSS PARTS OF THE WEST, AND EXTENDING
ALONG THE U.S./CANADIAN BORDER. NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES ARE FORECAST ACROSS
ALASKA UNDERNEATH TROUGHING MOVING ACROSS THE STATE, WITH NEAR-NORMAL HEIGHTS
FAVORED ACROSS HAWAII.
AS IN THE 6-10 DAY FORECAST, DYNAMICAL MODELS CONTINUE TO FAVOR STRONG WARMING
ACROSS MUCH OF THE CONUS BY WEEK-2, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS INTO
PARTS OF THE MIDWEST. HOWEVER, TELECONNECTION ANALYSIS WITH THE NEGATIVE HEIGHT
ANOMALY CENTER NEAR HUDSON BAY LENDS TO SOME PAUSE REGARDING THE MAGNITUDE AND
NORTHEASTWARD EXPANSION OF THE WARMTH SUGGESTING THAT THE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE
MAY BE OVERDONE. NONETHELESS, IT DOES APPEAR THAT THERE WILL BE SOME DEGREE OF
WARMING, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS, WHERE WEAK RIDGING AND SOUTHERLY
FLOW IS LIKELY TO BOOST TEMPERATURES EARLY IN WEEK-2. THEREFORE, ABOVE-NORMAL
TEMPERATURE PROBABILITIES ARE INCREASED OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL CONUS. FOR THE
EAST, THE ECMWF REINFORCES TROUGHING TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF WEEK-2, ALONG WITH A
POTENTIAL SHORTWAVE IMPULSE AROUND THE MIDDLE OF THE PERIOD, WHICH MAY PROLONG
ELEVATED CHANCES OF NEAR- TO BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES DESPITE HIGHER
PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE GEFS AND ECMWF REFORECAST
TOOLS. TROUGHING IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY SHIFT EASTWARD FROM ALASKA, WITH
NEGATIVE MID-LEVEL HEIGHT ANOMALIES SPREADING INTO THE WESTERN CONUS BY THE END
OF THE PERIOD FAVORING ELEVATED PROBABILITIES FOR NEAR- TO BELOW-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. AT THE OUTSET OF WEEK-2, ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED
ACROSS MOST OF ALASKA. HOWEVER, AS THE TROUGHING SHIFTS MORE EAST AND THE
NORTHERLY COMPONENT OF THE MID-LEVEL FLOW INCREASES, A TREND TOWARD COOLER
TEMPERATURES IS FORECAST, WITH THE ECMWF REFORECAST TOOL DEPICTING A STRONGER
TROUGH RESULTING IN A WARMER PATTERN ACROSS SOUTHEAST ALASKA COMPARED TO THAT
DEPICTED IN THE GEFS REFORECAST TOOL. FOR WEEK-2 AS A WHOLE, NEAR-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR MOST AREAS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MAINLAND,
AND SOUTHEAST ALASKA, WITH A SLIGHT TILT TOWARD ELEVATED ABOVE (BELOW-) NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FAVORED ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN MAINLAND AND ALASKA PENINSULA
(NORTHERN MAINLAND). SLIGHTLY ELEVATED PROBABILITIES FOR BELOW-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE PREDICTED FOR MOST OF HAWAII.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST AS THE
WEEK-2 PERIOD PROGRESSES, ALTHOUGH ONSHORE FLOW IS FORECAST TO INCREASE ACROSS
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ESPECIALLY AS TROUGHING INCREASES LATER IN THE PERIOD.
THIS RESULTS IN ELEVATED PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION OVER MUCH
OF THE WEST FROM THE PACIFIC COAST TO THE ROCKIES. A WEAKER MID-LEVEL FLOW
PATTERN IS FAVORED FOR THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS, ALTHOUGH A SHORTWAVE
DISTURBANCE MAY ENHANCE PRECIPITATION OVER PARTS OF THE OHIO VALLEY AND
NORTHEAST AROUND THE MIDDLE OF THE PERIOD, TILTING THE ODDS TOWARD ABOVE-NORMAL
FOR THE PERIOD AS A WHOLE. ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS, LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY, AND SOUTHEAST, BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES ARE INCREASED
FURTHER DISPLACED FROM THE MEAN STORM TRACK TO THE NORTH. ELEVATED CHANCES FOR
ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION ARE FAVORED FOR MOST OF ALASKA DUE TO INCREASED
SOUTHERLY FLOW, WITH NEAR- TO BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES ELEVATED NORTH
OF THE BROOKS RANGE. WEAK TROUGHING IS FORECAST TO MOVE CLOSER TO HAWAII
COMPARED TO THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD FAVORING SLIGHTLY ELEVATED CHANCES FOR
ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE STATE.
THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF: 35% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 35% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 11, AND 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON
DAY 11
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: BELOW AVERAGE, 2 OUT OF 5, DUE TO
CONTINUED DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS REGARDING THE EVOLUTION OF THE MID-LEVEL
HEIGHT PATTERN, ALONG WITH NOTABLE DIFFERENCES IN THE TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TOOLS.
FORECASTER: THOMAS COLLOW
NOTES:
AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OCCASIONALLY MANUAL
INTERVENTION IS NECESSARY TO ADDRESS QUALITY CONTROL AND CONSISTENCY ISSUES. IN
THESE CASES, FORECASTS ARE MANUALLY DRAWN BUT A FULL DISCUSSION IS NOT ISSUED.
THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS THE SAME AS
THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW
THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER (ORANGE,
"A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N"). HISTORICAL AVERAGE
VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST (DASHES, "F"). LABELS ON THE
SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).
PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WETTER (GREEN,
"A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N"). HISTORICAL MEDIAN VALUES
FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST (DASHES, "INCHES"). LABELS ON THE
SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).
PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL BE A
GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY EVEN A NORMAL
(I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES
A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO
PRECIPITATION.
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1991-2020 BASE PERIOD MEANS AS REFERENCE IN
THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS.
THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON
FEBRUARY 15.
ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
19840216 - 19980225 - 19810220 - 20040204 - 19530208
ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
19840217 - 20040206 - 19810219 - 19530209 - 19980225
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR FEB 18 - 22 2024
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON N N OREGON A A NRN CALIF A A
SRN CALIF N A IDAHO A A NEVADA A A
W MONTANA B A E MONTANA B A WYOMING N A
UTAH A A ARIZONA A A COLORADO A A
NEW MEXICO A A N DAKOTA B N S DAKOTA B A
NEBRASKA N A KANSAS N A OKLAHOMA A N
N TEXAS A B S TEXAS A B W TEXAS A B
MINNESOTA B N IOWA B A MISSOURI N N
ARKANSAS N N LOUISIANA N B WISCONSIN B N
ILLINOIS N A MISSISSIPPI N B MICHIGAN B N
INDIANA N A OHIO N N KENTUCKY N N
TENNESSEE N N ALABAMA N B NEW YORK B N
VERMONT B N NEW HAMP B N MAINE B N
MASS B N CONN B N RHODE IS B N
PENN N N NEW JERSEY N N W VIRGINIA N N
MARYLAND N N DELAWARE N N VIRGINIA N N
N CAROLINA N N S CAROLINA N N GEORGIA B N
FL PNHDL B B FL PENIN B A AK N SLOPE A B
AK ALEUTIAN A A AK WESTERN A A AK INT BSN A N
AK S INT A A AK SO COAST A A AK PNHDL N N
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR FEB 20 - 26 2024
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON N A OREGON N A NRN CALIF N A
SRN CALIF B A IDAHO N A NEVADA N A
W MONTANA N A E MONTANA N A WYOMING N A
UTAH N A ARIZONA N A COLORADO A A
NEW MEXICO A A N DAKOTA N N S DAKOTA A N
NEBRASKA A N KANSAS A N OKLAHOMA A B
N TEXAS A B S TEXAS A B W TEXAS A B
MINNESOTA N N IOWA A N MISSOURI A N
ARKANSAS A B LOUISIANA A B WISCONSIN N N
ILLINOIS A N MISSISSIPPI A B MICHIGAN N A
INDIANA N A OHIO N A KENTUCKY N N
TENNESSEE N N ALABAMA N N NEW YORK N A
VERMONT B A NEW HAMP B A MAINE B A
MASS B A CONN B A RHODE IS B A
PENN N A NEW JERSEY N A W VIRGINIA N A
MARYLAND N N DELAWARE N N VIRGINIA N N
N CAROLINA N N S CAROLINA N N GEORGIA N N
FL PNHDL N N FL PENIN B N AK N SLOPE B N
AK ALEUTIAN N A AK WESTERN N A AK INT BSN N A
AK S INT N A AK SO COAST N A AK PNHDL N A
LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW B - BELOW
THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.
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