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FXUS06 KWBC 142003
PMDMRD
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD
300 PM EST WED FEBRUARY 14 2024
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR FEB 20 - 24 2024
MODEL AGREEMENT CONTINUES TO IMPROVE RELATIVE TO PREVIOUS OUTLOOKS REGARDING
THE MID-LEVEL GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT PATTERN DURING THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD. TROUGHING
IS PREDICTED NEAR THE WEST COAST OF THE CONUS AT THE OUTSET OF THE PERIOD.
HOWEVER, THIS FEATURE IS FORECAST TO QUICKLY WEAKEN, WITH THE 0Z ECMWF, GEFS,
AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLES ALL INDICATING MORE RIDGING OVER PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN
AND CENTRAL CONUS LATER IN THE PERIOD. TROUGHING IS FORECAST ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN CANADA AND EXTENDING THROUGH MUCH OF THE EASTERN SEABOARD, WITH
POSSIBLE RELOADING OF THIS TROUGH AROUND DAYS 8 AND 9. FOR THE PERIOD AS A
WHOLE, SLIGHTLY BELOW-NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS ARE FAVORED IN THE MANUAL BLEND
ACROSS PORTIONS OF CALIFORNIA AND ADJACENT AREAS, ALONG WITH MUCH OF THE EAST
COAST. CLOSER TO NORMAL HEIGHTS ARE FAVORED ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER, WITH
INCREASING POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES FORECAST OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL STATES,
WITH THE HIGHEST POSITIVE ANOMALIES (GREATER THAN +60 METERS) OVER PARTS OF
TEXAS. ACROSS ALASKA, TROUGHING EXPANDING ACROSS THE BERING SEA FAVORS AN
EROSION OF THE RIDGE INITIALLY PREDICTED OVER THE MAINLAND. POSITIVE HEIGHT
ANOMALIES ARE PREDICTED ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHEAST ALASKA UNDERNEATH THIS INITIAL
RIDGING, WITH NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES FORECAST OVER MUCH OF THE MAINLAND AND
ALEUTIANS. NEAR- TO ABOVE-NORMAL HEIGHTS ARE PREDICTED ACROSS HAWAII.
DYNAMICAL MODELS CONTINUE TO FAVOR HIGH PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES OVER MUCH OF THE CONUS DURING THE PERIOD, WITH TODAY’S FORECAST
NOW INDICATING AT LEAST A 70 PERCENT CHANCE FOR ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED
ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD CONSISTENT WITH THE RELATIVELY COOLER UNCALIBRATED
0Z ECMWF AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLES AND PREDICTED TROUGHING ACROSS THE REGION. BOTH
THE GEFS AND ECMWF REFORECAST TOOLS SUPPORT INCREASED CHANCES FOR BELOW-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. UNCALIBRATED GUIDANCE GENERALLY
FAVORS BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST, WITH THE ECMWF
REFORECAST TOOL FAVORING HIGHER CHANCES FOR ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES LIKELY
TIED TO ENHANCED ONSHORE FLOW. GIVEN THIS DISCREPANCY, NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ARE FAVORED FOR PARTS OF THE SOUTHWEST, WITH PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES INCREASED FURTHER NORTH. ELEVATED CHANCES FOR ABOVE-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE PREDICTED FOR MUCH OF ALASKA AS UPSTREAM TROUGHING FAVORS
ENHANCED SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE STATE, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE NORTH SLOPE
WHERE NEAR- TO BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURE PROBABILITIES ARE INCREASED.
PROBABILITIES FOR NEAR- TO BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE SLIGHTLY INCREASED
ACROSS MOST OF HAWAII, CONSISTENT WITH THE CONSOLIDATION FORECAST TOOL.
AT THE OUTSET OF THE PERIOD, TROUGHING OFF THE WEST COAST FAVORS ENHANCED
ONSHORE FLOW ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST LEADING TO CONTINUED ROUNDS OF POTENTIALLY
HEAVY PRECIPITATION. AFTER DAY-6, DAILY PRECIPITATION TOTALS DECREASE IN THE
UNCALIBRATED GUIDANCE, WITH ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES REMAINING
ELEVATED FOR THE PERIOD AS A WHOLE. TROUGHING SHIFTING FROM ALASKA TOWARD
WESTERN CANADA FAVORS INCREASING PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACROSS THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST BY THE END OF THE PERIOD, RESULTING IN ELEVATED PROBABILITIES FOR
NEAR- TO ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IN THIS REGION. ENHANCED NORTHERLY FLOW IN
THE WAKE OF TROUGHING NEAR THE EAST COAST COMBINED WITH RIDGING DEVELOPING OVER
CENTRAL CONUS FAVOR INCREASED CHANCES FOR BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION ACROSS
MUCH OF THE GREAT PLAINS, MISSISSIPPI AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS, SOUTHERN
MID-ATLANTIC, AND SOUTHEAST. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST OR OFF THE COAST AROUND THE MIDDLE OF THE PERIOD AS TROUGHING
POTENTIALLY RELOADS ACROSS THE REGION, AND A SLIGHT TILT IN THE ODDS TOWARD
ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS HIGHLIGHTED OVER PARTS OF THE OHIO VALLEY AND
NORTHEAST. TROUGHING AND ENHANCED SOUTHERLY FLOW FAVOR ELEVATED PROBABILITIES
OF ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF ALASKA, WITH
NEAR-NORMAL PRECIPITATION FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN MAINLAND. INCREASING
CHANCES FOR ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION ARE FAVORED FOR THE NORTHERN HAWAIIAN
ISLANDS, WITH NEAR-NORMAL PRECIPITATION FORECAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ISLANDS.
THE OFFICIAL 6-10 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF 35% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 35% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 8, AND 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY
8
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: AVERAGE, 3 OUT OF 5, DUE TO
CONTINUING BETTER AGREEMENT AMONG THE FORECAST TOOLS, BUT STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY GIVEN THE TRANSIENT MID-LEVEL PATTERN.
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR FEB 22 - 28 2024
THE LONGWAVE 500-HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT PATTERN IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE
SHIFTING EASTWARD DURING WEEK-2. THE TROUGHING ACROSS ALASKA IS FORECAST TO
BUILD INTO THE WESTERN CONUS, WITH A TREND TOWARD A MORE ZONAL MID-LEVEL FLOW
PATTERN FAVORED EAST OF THE ROCKIES, WITH SOME HINTS OF RIDGING DEVELOPING IN
THE EAST BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. THE MANUAL 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND FOR WEEK-2
CONTINUES TO DEPICT NEAR-NORMAL HEIGHTS FOR MOST OF THE CONUS, WITH SLIGHTLY
BELOW-NORMAL HEIGHTS FAVORED ACROSS PARTS OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. SLIGHTLY
ABOVE-NORMAL HEIGHTS ARE INDICATED OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO COAST. NEGATIVE
HEIGHT ANOMALIES ARE FORECAST ACROSS ALASKA UNDERNEATH TROUGHING MOVING ACROSS
THE STATE, WITH NEAR- TO BELOW-NORMAL HEIGHTS FAVORED ACROSS HAWAII.
AS IN THE 6-10 DAY FORECAST, DYNAMICAL MODELS CONTINUE TO FAVOR ANOMALOUS
WARMTH ACROSS MUCH OF THE CONUS EAST OF THE ROCKIES DURING WEEK-2. AS A RESULT,
ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURE PROBABILITIES ARE INCREASED OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN CONUS, WITH THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES (GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT)
ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS AND MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. FOLLOWING A RELATIVELY COOLER
PATTERN IN THE EAST EARLY IN THE PERIOD, THE TRANSITION TO MORE RIDGING BY THE
END OF THE PERIOD FAVORS AN UPWARD TREND IN TEMPERATURES, AND ABOVE-NORMAL
TEMPERATURE PROBABILITIES ARE INCREASED COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. TROUGHING IS
FORECAST TO GRADUALLY SHIFT EASTWARD FROM ALASKA, WITH NEGATIVE MID-LEVEL
HEIGHT ANOMALIES SPREADING INTO THE WESTERN CONUS BY THE END OF THE PERIOD
FAVORING ELEVATED PROBABILITIES FOR NEAR- TO BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER
PARTS OF THE WEST. AT THE OUTSET OF WEEK-2, ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
FAVORED ACROSS MOST OF ALASKA. HOWEVER, AS THE TROUGHING SHIFTS MORE EAST AND
THE NORTHERLY COMPONENT OF THE MID-LEVEL FLOW INCREASES, A TREND TOWARD COOLER
TEMPERATURES IS FORECAST. FOR WEEK-2 AS A WHOLE, NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
FAVORED FOR SOUTHEASTERN MAINLAND AND SOUTHEAST ALASKA, WITH INCREASED
PROBABILITIES FOR BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES HIGHLIGHTED ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF
THE STATE. ELEVATED PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE PREDICTED
ACROSS HAWAII.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST AS THE
WEEK-2 PERIOD PROGRESSES, ALTHOUGH ONSHORE FLOW IS FORECAST TO INCREASE ACROSS
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ESPECIALLY AS TROUGHING INCREASES LATER IN THE PERIOD.
THIS RESULTS IN ELEVATED PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION OVER MUCH
OF THE WEST FROM THE PACIFIC COAST TO THE ROCKIES, WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES
(GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT) OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. A RELATIVELY WEAKER
MID-LEVEL FLOW PATTERN IS FAVORED DOWNSTREAM, ALTHOUGH A SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE
MAY ENHANCE PRECIPITATION OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST EARLY IN THE PERIOD,
ALONG WITH SUBSEQUENT RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS LATER IN
WEEK-2. THIS FAVORS A BROAD AREA OF SLIGHTLY ENHANCED ABOVE-NORMAL
PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES ACROSS THE EAST, WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW-NORMAL
PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASED ALONG THE GULF OF MEXICO COAST, SOUTH FLORIDA,
AND THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION, FURTHEST DISPLACED FROM
THE MEAN STORM TRACK. ELEVATED CHANCES FOR ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION ARE
FAVORED FOR MOST OF SOUTHEASTERN ALASKA DUE TO INCREASED SOUTHERLY FLOW, WITH
NEAR- TO BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES ELEVATED FOR MUCH OF THE REMAINDER
OF THE STATE. TROUGHING MOVING CLOSER TO HAWAII FAVORS SLIGHTLY ELEVATED
CHANCES FOR ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE STATE.
THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF: 40% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 40% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 11, AND 20% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON
DAY 11
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: AVERAGE, 3 OUT OF 5, DUE TO
INCREASING CONFIDENCE REGARDING A WARMER PATTERN DEVELOPING ACROSS MUCH OF THE
CONUS, WITH SOME REMAINING UNCERTAINTY IN REGARDS TO TIMING THE EASTWARD
EXPANSION OF THE ANOMALOUS WARMTH.
FORECASTER: THOMAS COLLOW
NOTES:
AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OCCASIONALLY MANUAL
INTERVENTION IS NECESSARY TO ADDRESS QUALITY CONTROL AND CONSISTENCY ISSUES. IN
THESE CASES, FORECASTS ARE MANUALLY DRAWN BUT A FULL DISCUSSION IS NOT ISSUED.
THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS THE SAME AS
THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW
THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER (ORANGE,
"A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N"). HISTORICAL AVERAGE
VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST (DASHES, "F"). LABELS ON THE
SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).
PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WETTER (GREEN,
"A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N"). HISTORICAL MEDIAN VALUES
FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST (DASHES, "INCHES"). LABELS ON THE
SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).
PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL BE A
GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY EVEN A NORMAL
(I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES
A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO
PRECIPITATION.
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1991-2020 BASE PERIOD MEANS AS REFERENCE IN
THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS.
THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON
FEBRUARY 15.
ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
19860208 - 19800209 - 20040209 - 19530210 - 19780216
ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
19800210 - 19860208 - 19780216 - 19660124 - 20040209
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR FEB 20 - 24 2024
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON A N OREGON A A NRN CALIF A A
SRN CALIF N A IDAHO A A NEVADA A A
W MONTANA A N E MONTANA A N WYOMING A A
UTAH A A ARIZONA A A COLORADO A A
NEW MEXICO A B N DAKOTA A B S DAKOTA A B
NEBRASKA A B KANSAS A B OKLAHOMA A B
N TEXAS A B S TEXAS A B W TEXAS A B
MINNESOTA A N IOWA A N MISSOURI A B
ARKANSAS A B LOUISIANA A B WISCONSIN A N
ILLINOIS A N MISSISSIPPI A B MICHIGAN A N
INDIANA A N OHIO A N KENTUCKY A N
TENNESSEE A B ALABAMA A B NEW YORK N A
VERMONT N A NEW HAMP N A MAINE N A
MASS N N CONN N N RHODE IS N N
PENN N N NEW JERSEY N N W VIRGINIA A N
MARYLAND N N DELAWARE N N VIRGINIA N N
N CAROLINA N B S CAROLINA N B GEORGIA N B
FL PNHDL N B FL PENIN B B AK N SLOPE N N
AK ALEUTIAN N A AK WESTERN A A AK INT BSN A N
AK S INT A A AK SO COAST A A AK PNHDL A A
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR FEB 22 - 28 2024
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON N A OREGON N A NRN CALIF N A
SRN CALIF B A IDAHO N A NEVADA N A
W MONTANA N A E MONTANA A N WYOMING A A
UTAH A A ARIZONA A B COLORADO A N
NEW MEXICO A N N DAKOTA A N S DAKOTA A N
NEBRASKA A N KANSAS A N OKLAHOMA A N
N TEXAS A N S TEXAS A N W TEXAS A N
MINNESOTA A N IOWA A N MISSOURI A N
ARKANSAS A N LOUISIANA A N WISCONSIN A N
ILLINOIS A N MISSISSIPPI A N MICHIGAN A A
INDIANA A A OHIO A A KENTUCKY A A
TENNESSEE A A ALABAMA A N NEW YORK A A
VERMONT N A NEW HAMP N A MAINE N A
MASS N A CONN A A RHODE IS N A
PENN A A NEW JERSEY A A W VIRGINIA A A
MARYLAND A A DELAWARE A A VIRGINIA A A
N CAROLINA A A S CAROLINA A A GEORGIA A A
FL PNHDL A A FL PENIN N N AK N SLOPE B B
AK ALEUTIAN B N AK WESTERN B N AK INT BSN B N
AK S INT B A AK SO COAST N A AK PNHDL N A
LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW B - BELOW
THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.
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