080
FXUS06 KWBC 152027
PMDMRD
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD
300 PM EST THU FEBRUARY 15 2024
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR FEB 21 - 25 2024
THERE IS GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT REGARDING THE MEAN MID-LEVEL GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT
PATTERN OVER THE FORECAST DOMAIN DURING THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD, SHOWING GOOD
CONTINUITY WITH YESTERDAY’S 6-10 DAY FORECAST HEIGHT PATTERN. THE MANUAL HEIGHT
BLEND - A NEARLY EQUAL WEIGHTED AVERAGE OF THE GEFS, EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
(ECENS) AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN (CMCE) - DISPLAYS A SIGNIFICANT 500-HPA
TROUGH FROM EASTERN SIBERIA ACROSS THE BERING SEA TO WESTERN ALASKA. SOUTH OF
THIS FEATURE IS A PREDICTED ZONALLY-ORIENTED MEAN RIDGE THAT EXTENDS ACROSS
MUCH OF THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC OCEAN. IN-BETWEEN THESE TWO
FEATURES IS AN ENHANCED WESTERLY ANOMALOUS JET THAT BIFURCATES INTO NORTHERN
AND SOUTHERN BRANCHES AS IT NEARS THE U.S. WEST COAST. THE NORTHERN BRANCH GOES
UP AND OVER A MID-LEVEL RIDGE FORECAST OVER FAR WESTERN CANADA AND DROPS BACK
DOWN ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES REGION. THE SOUTHERN
BRANCH ROUNDS THE BASE OF A WEAK TROUGH NEAR CALIFORNIA AND THEN CONTINUES ON
TOWARDS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS, ON THE NORTH SIDE OF A WEAK MID-LEVEL
RIDGE ANTICIPATED IN THE VICINITY OF TEXAS. THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN BRANCHES
OF THE JET RECOMBINE OVER THE EAST-CENTRAL CONTIGUOUS U.S. (CONUS), UPSTREAM OF
A BROAD TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM EASTERN CANADA ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS
AND MID-ATLANTIC REGION, CONTINUING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. FOR HAWAII,
MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST TO BE NEAR TO ABOVE-NORMAL DURING THE 6-10 DAY
PERIOD.
DYNAMICAL MODELS CONTINUE TO FAVOR HIGH PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES OVER MUCH OF THE CONUS DURING THE PERIOD, WITH AT LEAST A 70
PERCENT CHANCE FOR ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
PLAINS AND NEIGHBORING PORTIONS OF THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE AUTO-TEMPERATURE
TOOL AND THE NAEFS BIAS-CORRECTED TEMPERATURE TOOL SUPPORT INCREASED CHANCES
FOR BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. NEAR-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE INTERIOR WEST DUE TO
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES BETWEEN CALIBRATED AND UNCALIBRATED TEMPERATURE TOOLS.
ELEVATED CHANCES FOR ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE PREDICTED FOR MUCH OF ALASKA
AS UPSTREAM TROUGHING FAVORS ENHANCED SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE STATE, WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF THE NORTH SLOPE WHERE NEAR- TO BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURE
PROBABILITIES ARE INCREASED. PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
SLIGHTLY INCREASED ACROSS MOST OF HAWAII, CONSISTENT WITH THE CONSOLIDATION
FORECAST TOOL.
WEAK TROUGHING NEAR THE CALIFORNIA COAST RESULTS IN ELEVATED PROBABILITIES FOR
ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION FROM CALIFORNIA EASTWARD ACROSS MUCH OF THE
SOUTHWEST AND INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. ANOTHER AREA OF FAVORED ABOVE-NORMAL
PRECIPITATION EXTENDS FROM THE VICINITY OF THE OHIO VALLEY AND EASTERN GREAT
LAKES THROUGH NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS IS BASED ON A PREDICTED LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM THAT MOVES FAIRLY QUICKLY THROUGH THIS AREA. DOWNSTREAM OF THE WEAK
MID-LEVEL RIDGE ANTICIPATED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS, THERE ARE INCREASED
CHANCES OF NORTHERLY SURFACE FLOW AND BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION FROM EASTERN
TEXAS ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND SOUTHEAST. FOR AREAS WELL REMOVED
FROM THE PRIMARY STORM TRACK ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND ALSO IN THE
VICINITY OF THE FAR SOUTHERN ROCKIES BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE
SLIGHTLY FAVORED. TROUGHING AND ENHANCED SOUTHERLY FLOW FAVOR ELEVATED
PROBABILITIES OF ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION ACROSS MOST OF ALASKA, WITH CHANCES
EXCEEDING 50% OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE STATE. INCREASED CHANCES FOR
ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION ARE FAVORED FOR THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS, CONSISTENT
WITH THE CONSOLIDATION TOOL.
THE OFFICIAL 6-10 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF 33% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 34% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 8, AND 33% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY
8
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: AVERAGE, 3 OUT OF 5, DUE TO GOOD
AGREEMENT AMONG THE VARIOUS MODEL HEIGHT FORECASTS, OFFSET BY SUBSTANTIAL
DIFFERENCES AMONG THE PRECIPITATION TOOLS GIVEN THE TRANSIENT MID-LEVEL PATTERN.
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR FEB 23 - 29 2024
THE LONGWAVE 500-HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT PATTERN IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE
SHIFTING EASTWARD DURING WEEK-2. THE TROUGHING ACROSS ALASKA IS FORECAST TO
RAPIDLY OVERSPREAD THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS, WITH A TREND TOWARD A MORE
ZONAL MID-LEVEL FLOW PATTERN FAVORED EAST OF THE ROCKIES, WITH SOME HINTS OF
RIDGING DEVELOPING IN THE EAST TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD. THE MANUAL
500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND FOR WEEK-2 CONTINUES TO DEPICT NEAR-NORMAL HEIGHTS FOR
MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS, WITH BELOW-NORMAL HEIGHTS FAVORED ACROSS
THE PACIFIC COAST STATES, MOST OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST, AND CONTINUING
EASTWARD INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS. SLIGHTLY ABOVE-NORMAL HEIGHTS ARE
INDICATED NEAR THE GULF COAST. NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES ARE FORECAST ACROSS
ALASKA UNDERNEATH TROUGHING MOVING ACROSS THE STATE, WITH NEAR-NORMAL HEIGHTS
FAVORED ACROSS HAWAII.
FOR APPROXIMATELY THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS, THERE ARE CONFLICTING
INDICATIONS AMONG THE MANUAL HEIGHT BLEND AND VARIOUS SURFACE TEMPERATURE
TOOLS. MID-LEVEL GUIDANCE AGREES ON THE RAPID FALL IN 500-HPA HEIGHTS ACROSS
THIS REGION DURING WEEK-2, PRESUMABLY DUE TO THE RAPID SOUTHEAST PROPAGATION OF
THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH INITIALLY OVER ALASKA. HOWEVER, THE REFORECAST TEMPERATURE
TOOLS ARE FAVORING NEAR TO MOSTLY ABOVE-NORMAL SURFACE TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
WEST, WHICH SUGGESTS THE TEMPERATURE TOOLS MAY NOT BE RESPONDING QUICKLY ENOUGH
TO THE VERY PROGRESSIVE MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION. THE NAEFS BIAS-CORRECTED TOOL IS
THE EXCEPTION, DEPICTING FAVORED BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION.
THE NAEFS SCENARIO SEEMS A BIT TOO FAST IN THE ANTICIPATED ADVECTION OF COOLER
AIR. THEREFORE, NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE CONSIDERED THE MOST LIKELY
TEMPERATURE CATEGORY ACROSS THE WEST. ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN THIRDS OF
THE CONUS, ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURE CHANCES ARE INCREASED BASED ON NEARLY ALL
DYNAMICAL MODEL INPUT. PROBABILITIES EXCEEDING 70% FOR ABOVE-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED OVER PARTS OF THE NORTH-CENTRAL CONUS. THE MID-LEVEL
TROUGH PREDICTED TO MOVE OVER THE ALASKA DOMAIN AND ACCOMPANYING BELOW-NORMAL
500-HPA HEIGHTS FAVOR BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS ALASKA. FOR HAWAII, THE
CONSOLIDATION TOOL SUPPORTS ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURE CHANCES.
THE WEEK-2 PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK FAVORS INCREASED CHANCES OF ABOVE-NORMAL
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS, AS 500-HPA HEIGHTS FALL RAPIDLY ACROSS
THIS REGION. PROBABILITIES FAVORING ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION EXCEED 50% OVER
WASHINGTON, OREGON, NORTHERN CALIFORNIA, AND NORTHWESTERN PARTS OF NEVADA. OVER
A LARGE PORTION OF THE EASTERN CONUS, CHANCES FOR ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION
ARE SLIGHTLY ELEVATED, CONSISTENT WITH WIDESPREAD RETURN FLOW AROUND SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE EAST COAST. SOME OF THE PRECIPITATION TOOLS FAVOR A
BRIDGING OF THE FAVORED LARGE REGIONS OF ANOMALOUS WETNESS (IN THE WESTERN AND
EASTERN CONUS) THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS. BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES
ARE INCREASED AWAY FROM THE PRIMARY STORM TRACK, IN THE VICINITY OF THE
DAKOTAS. FOR EASTERN AND SOUTHEAST ALASKA, ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES
ARE INCREASED, DUE TO A MID-LEVEL TROUGH PASSING THROUGH THAT REGION. IN THE
WAKE OF THIS TROUGH, A RELATIVELY SMALL REGION OF BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS
FAVORED ALONG THE WESTERN COAST OF ALASKA. FARTHER SOUTH, ABOVE-NORMAL
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE ELEVATED ACROSS THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS BASED ON THE
CONSOLIDATION TOOL.
THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF: 33% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 34% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 11, AND 33% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON
DAY 11
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: AVERAGE, 3 OUT OF 5, DUE TO
INCREASING CONFIDENCE REGARDING A WARMER PATTERN DEVELOPING ACROSS MUCH OF THE
CONUS, OFFSET BY TIMING ISSUES INHERENT WITH A VERY PROGRESSIVE CIRCULATION
PATTERN, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS.
FORECASTER: ANTHONY A
NOTES:
AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OCCASIONALLY MANUAL
INTERVENTION IS NECESSARY TO ADDRESS QUALITY CONTROL AND CONSISTENCY ISSUES. IN
THESE CASES, FORECASTS ARE MANUALLY DRAWN BUT A FULL DISCUSSION IS NOT ISSUED.
THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS THE SAME AS
THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW
THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER (ORANGE,
"A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N"). HISTORICAL AVERAGE
VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST (DASHES, "F"). LABELS ON THE
SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).
PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WETTER (GREEN,
"A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N"). HISTORICAL MEDIAN VALUES
FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST (DASHES, "INCHES"). LABELS ON THE
SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).
PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL BE A
GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY EVEN A NORMAL
(I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES
A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO
PRECIPITATION.
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1991-2020 BASE PERIOD MEANS AS REFERENCE IN
THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS.
THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON
MARCH 21.
ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
19800210 - 19860209 - 19810129 - 19680211 - 20040210
ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
19800211 - 19860208 - 19680211 - 19810128 - 19780226
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR FEB 21 - 25 2024
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON A N OREGON A N NRN CALIF N A
SRN CALIF N A IDAHO N N NEVADA N A
W MONTANA A N E MONTANA A N WYOMING A N
UTAH A A ARIZONA A A COLORADO A A
NEW MEXICO A N N DAKOTA A N S DAKOTA A N
NEBRASKA A N KANSAS A N OKLAHOMA A N
N TEXAS A B S TEXAS A B W TEXAS A N
MINNESOTA A N IOWA A N MISSOURI A N
ARKANSAS A N LOUISIANA A B WISCONSIN A N
ILLINOIS A N MISSISSIPPI A B MICHIGAN A N
INDIANA A N OHIO A A KENTUCKY A N
TENNESSEE A N ALABAMA A B NEW YORK A A
VERMONT N A NEW HAMP N N MAINE N A
MASS N N CONN N N RHODE IS N N
PENN A N NEW JERSEY A N W VIRGINIA A N
MARYLAND A N DELAWARE A N VIRGINIA A N
N CAROLINA A B S CAROLINA A B GEORGIA N B
FL PNHDL N B FL PENIN B B AK N SLOPE N A
AK ALEUTIAN N A AK WESTERN A A AK INT BSN A A
AK S INT A A AK SO COAST A A AK PNHDL A A
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR FEB 23 - 29 2024
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON N A OREGON N A NRN CALIF N A
SRN CALIF N A IDAHO N A NEVADA N A
W MONTANA N A E MONTANA A N WYOMING A A
UTAH N A ARIZONA N A COLORADO A A
NEW MEXICO A N N DAKOTA A N S DAKOTA A N
NEBRASKA A N KANSAS A A OKLAHOMA A N
N TEXAS A N S TEXAS A N W TEXAS A N
MINNESOTA A N IOWA A N MISSOURI A A
ARKANSAS A A LOUISIANA A N WISCONSIN A N
ILLINOIS A A MISSISSIPPI A N MICHIGAN A A
INDIANA A A OHIO A A KENTUCKY A A
TENNESSEE A A ALABAMA A A NEW YORK A A
VERMONT A A NEW HAMP N A MAINE N A
MASS A A CONN A A RHODE IS A A
PENN A A NEW JERSEY A A W VIRGINIA A A
MARYLAND A A DELAWARE A A VIRGINIA A A
N CAROLINA A A S CAROLINA A A GEORGIA A A
FL PNHDL A N FL PENIN A N AK N SLOPE B N
AK ALEUTIAN B N AK WESTERN B N AK INT BSN B N
AK S INT B N AK SO COAST B N AK PNHDL B A
LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW B - BELOW
THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.
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