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FXUS06 KWBC 162003
PMDMRD
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD
300 PM EST FRI FEBRUARY 16 2024
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR FEB 22 - 26 2024
THERE IS GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT REGARDING THE MEAN MID-LEVEL GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT
PATTERN OVER THE FORECAST DOMAIN DURING THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD, SHOWING GOOD
CONTINUITY WITH YESTERDAY’S 6-10 DAY FORECAST HEIGHT PATTERN. THE MANUAL HEIGHT
BLEND - A NEARLY EQUAL WEIGHTED AVERAGE OF THE GEFS, EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
(ECENS) AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN (CMCE) - DISPLAYS A SIGNIFICANT 500-HPA
TROUGH ACROSS THE BERING SEA AND ALASKA. SOUTH OF THIS FEATURE IS A PREDICTED
ZONALLY-ORIENTED MEAN RIDGE THAT EXTENDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTH PACIFIC
OCEAN. IN-BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES IS AN ENHANCED WESTERLY ANOMALOUS JET THAT
SPLITS INTO NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN BRANCHES AS IT NEARS THE U.S. WEST COAST. THE
NORTHERN BRANCH GOES UP AND OVER A MID-LEVEL RIDGE FORECAST OVER FAR WESTERN
CANADA AND DROPS BACK DOWN ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES
REGION. THE SOUTHERN BRANCH ROUNDS THE BASE OF A TROUGH NEAR CALIFORNIA AND
THEN CONTINUES ON TOWARDS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS, ON THE NORTH SIDE OF
A MID-LEVEL RIDGE ANTICIPATED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE NORTHERN AND
SOUTHERN BRANCHES OF THE JET RECOMBINE OVER THE EAST-CENTRAL CONTIGUOUS U.S.
(CONUS), UPSTREAM OF A BROAD TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM EASTERN CANADA ACROSS THE
NORTHEASTERN CONUS, OHIO VALLEY, AND MID-ATLANTIC REGION, CONTINUING OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST. FOR HAWAII, MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST TO BE NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW-NORMAL DURING THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD.
DYNAMICAL MODELS CONTINUE TO FAVOR HIGH PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES OVER MUCH OF THE CONUS DURING THE PERIOD, WITH AT LEAST A 70
PERCENT CHANCE FOR ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
PLAINS AND NEIGHBORING PORTIONS OF THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. MOST TEMPERATURE
TOOLS SUPPORT INCREASED CHANCES FOR BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS FLORIDA,
WEST OF A PREDICTED MID-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS. NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED
FOR MOST AREAS EAST OF THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS, AND THE EAST-CENTRAL GULF
COAST REGION, DUE TO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES BETWEEN CALIBRATED AND
UNCALIBRATED (RAW) TEMPERATURE TOOLS. ELEVATED CHANCES FOR LINGERING NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE DEPICTED FOR PARTS OF SOUTHEAST ALASKA
AND THE EASTERN MAINLAND, ASSOCIATED WITH CLOUDINESS AND PRECIPITATION IN
ADVANCE OF A MID-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS. BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURE CHANCES ARE
ENHANCED OVER WESTERN AND NORTHERN ALASKA, DUE TO COLD AIR ADVECTION ASSOCIATED
WITH THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH. PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
SLIGHTLY INCREASED ACROSS NORTHWESTERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF HAWAII,
CONSISTENT WITH THE CONSOLIDATION FORECAST TOOL.
TROUGHING OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST AND ALSO APPROACHING THE LOWER 48 STATES
FROM EASTERN ALASKA CONTRIBUTE TO ELEVATED PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE-NORMAL
PRECIPITATION FROM THE WEST COAST STATES EASTWARD TOWARDS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES.
PROBABILITIES FAVORING ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION EXCEED 50 PERCENT NEAR THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL COAST OF CALIFORNIA. ANOTHER AREA OF FAVORED ABOVE-NORMAL
PRECIPITATION EXTENDS FROM THE VICINITY OF THE OHIO VALLEY AND EASTERN GREAT
LAKES THROUGH MOST OF NEW ENGLAND. THIS IS BASED ON A PREDICTED LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM THAT MOVES FAIRLY QUICKLY THROUGH THIS AREA. FOR MUCH OF THE
WEST-CENTRAL AND CENTRAL CONUS, AND THE GULF COAST STATES, WHICH ARE
SUFFICIENTLY REMOVED FROM THE PRIMARY STORM TRACK, THERE ARE INCREASED ODDS FOR
BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION. TROUGHING AND ENHANCED SOUTHERLY FLOW FAVOR
ELEVATED PROBABILITIES OF ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION ACROSS MOST OF ALASKA,
WITH CHANCES EXCEEDING 50 PERCENT OVER SOUTHEAST ALASKA. INCREASED CHANCES FOR
ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION ARE FAVORED FOR THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS, CONSISTENT
WITH THE CONSOLIDATION TOOL.
THE OFFICIAL 6-10 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF 33% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 34% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 8, AND 33% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY
8
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: AVERAGE, 3 OUT OF 5, DUE TO GOOD
AGREEMENT AMONG THE VARIOUS MODEL HEIGHT FORECASTS, OFFSET BY SUBSTANTIAL
DIFFERENCES AMONG THE RAW AND CALIBRATED TEMPERATURE TOOLS NEAR THE EAST COAST,
AND DIFFERENCES AMONG VARIOUS PRECIPITATION TOOLS.
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR FEB 24 - MAR 01, 2024
THE LONGWAVE 500-HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT PATTERN IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE
SHIFTING EASTWARD DURING WEEK-2. THE TROUGHING ACROSS ALASKA IS FORECAST TO
RAPIDLY OVERSPREAD THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS, WITH A TREND TOWARD A MORE
ZONAL MID-LEVEL FLOW PATTERN FAVORED EAST OF THE ROCKIES, WITH SOME HINTS OF
RIDGING DEVELOPING IN THE EAST TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD. THE MANUAL
500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND FOR WEEK-2 CONTINUES TO DEPICT NEAR-NORMAL HEIGHTS FOR
MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS, WITH BELOW-NORMAL HEIGHTS FAVORED FROM
MOST OF THE WEST INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS. SLIGHTLY ABOVE-NORMAL HEIGHTS
ARE INDICATED NEAR THE GULF COAST. NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES ARE FORECAST
ACROSS MOST OF ALASKA UNDERNEATH TROUGHING MOVING ACROSS THE STATE, WITH NEAR-
TO SLIGHTLY BELOW-NORMAL HEIGHTS FAVORED ACROSS HAWAII.
THERE CONTINUES TO BE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG RAW AND CALIBRATED
TEMPERATURE TOOLS ACROSS THE WEST, WITH THE RAW GUIDANCE FAVORING WIDESPREAD
BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND CALIBRATED-REFORECAST GUIDANCE FAVORING
WIDESPREAD ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES. GIVEN THERE IS MORE GUIDANCE TODAY
(RELATIVE TO YESTERDAY) FAVORING BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES, AND GIVEN THAT
MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS ARE PREDICTED TO RAPIDLY FALL ACROSS THE WEST IN WEEK-2, A
COMPROMISE OF NEAR TO BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES WAS INTRODUCED TO THE REGION.
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN THIRDS OF THE CONUS, ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURE
CHANCES ARE INCREASED BASED ON NEARLY ALL DYNAMICAL MODEL INPUT. PROBABILITIES
EXCEEDING 70 PERCENT FOR ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED OVER A LARGE
FRACTION OF THE EAST-CENTRAL CONUS. THE EXCEPTION TO THE FAVORED ANOMALOUS
WARMTH IS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA WHERE NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED. THE
MID-LEVEL TROUGH PREDICTED TO MOVE OVER THE ALASKA DOMAIN AND ACCOMPANYING
BELOW-NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS FAVOR HIGH PROBABILITIES FOR BELOW-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ACROSS ALASKA, EXCEEDING 70 PERCENT OVER A LARGE PORTION OF THE
SOUTHERN MAINLAND. FOR HAWAII, A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE AUTO-TEMPERATURE AND
CONSOLIDATION TEMPERATURE TOOLS SUPPORTS INCREASED ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURE
CHANCES FOR MOST OF THE ISLANDS.
THE WEEK-2 PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK FAVORS INCREASED CHANCES OF ABOVE-NORMAL
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS, AS 500-HPA HEIGHTS ARE PREDICTED TO
FALL RAPIDLY ACROSS THIS REGION. PROBABILITIES FAVORING ABOVE-NORMAL
PRECIPITATION EXCEED 50 PERCENT OVER THE VICINITY OF THE CENTRAL PACIFIC COAST.
EAST OF THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN STATES, CHANCES FOR ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION ARE
SLIGHTLY ELEVATED OVER MOST AREAS, CONSISTENT WITH WIDESPREAD RETURN FLOW
AROUND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE EAST COAST. BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION
CHANCES ARE INCREASED AWAY FROM THE PRIMARY STORM TRACK, IN THE VICINITY OF THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS AND SOUTH FLORIDA. FOR FAR SOUTHWESTERN ALASKA, INCLUDING THE
PENINSULA AND ALEUTIANS, AND FOR PARTS OF THE EASTERN MAINLAND AND SOUTHEAST
ALASKA, ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE INCREASED, DUE TO A MID-LEVEL
TROUGH PASSING THROUGH THE REGION. IN THE WAKE OF THIS TROUGH, BELOW-NORMAL
PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED OVER WESTERN AND NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF ALASKA.
FARTHER SOUTH, ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE ELEVATED ACROSS THE
HAWAIIAN ISLANDS BASED ON THE AUTO-PRECIPITATION AND CONSOLIDATION TOOLS.
THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF: 33% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 34% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 11, AND 33% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON
DAY 11
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: AVERAGE, 3 OUT OF 5, DUE TO GOOD
AGREEMENT AMONG THE VARIOUS MODEL HEIGHT FORECASTS OFFSET BY DIFFERENCES IN
SURFACE TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TOOLS.
FORECASTER: ANTHONY A
NOTES:
AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OCCASIONALLY MANUAL
INTERVENTION IS NECESSARY TO ADDRESS QUALITY CONTROL AND CONSISTENCY ISSUES. IN
THESE CASES, FORECASTS ARE MANUALLY DRAWN BUT A FULL DISCUSSION IS NOT ISSUED.
THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS THE SAME AS
THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW
THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER (ORANGE,
"A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N"). HISTORICAL AVERAGE
VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST (DASHES, "F"). LABELS ON THE
SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).
PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WETTER (GREEN,
"A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N"). HISTORICAL MEDIAN VALUES
FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST (DASHES, "INCHES"). LABELS ON THE
SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).
PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL BE A
GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY EVEN A NORMAL
(I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES
A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO
PRECIPITATION.
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1991-2020 BASE PERIOD MEANS AS REFERENCE IN
THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS.
THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON
MARCH 21.
ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
19800212 - 19860210 - 20070128 - 19680211 - 19780226
ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
19800212 - 19860210 - 19680211 - 19780227 - 20070128
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR FEB 22 - 26 2024
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON A A OREGON A A NRN CALIF A A
SRN CALIF N A IDAHO A N NEVADA A A
W MONTANA A B E MONTANA A B WYOMING A B
UTAH A A ARIZONA A N COLORADO A N
NEW MEXICO A B N DAKOTA A B S DAKOTA A B
NEBRASKA A B KANSAS A B OKLAHOMA A B
N TEXAS A B S TEXAS A B W TEXAS A B
MINNESOTA A B IOWA A N MISSOURI A N
ARKANSAS A B LOUISIANA A B WISCONSIN A N
ILLINOIS A N MISSISSIPPI N B MICHIGAN A N
INDIANA A N OHIO A N KENTUCKY A N
TENNESSEE N N ALABAMA N B NEW YORK N A
VERMONT N A NEW HAMP N A MAINE A A
MASS N A CONN N N RHODE IS N N
PENN N N NEW JERSEY N N W VIRGINIA N N
MARYLAND N N DELAWARE N N VIRGINIA N N
N CAROLINA N N S CAROLINA N N GEORGIA N B
FL PNHDL B B FL PENIN B B AK N SLOPE B A
AK ALEUTIAN B N AK WESTERN N A AK INT BSN N A
AK S INT N A AK SO COAST N A AK PNHDL N A
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR FEB 24 - MAR 01, 2024
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON B A OREGON B A NRN CALIF B A
SRN CALIF B A IDAHO N A NEVADA N A
W MONTANA N A E MONTANA A A WYOMING A A
UTAH N A ARIZONA N A COLORADO A A
NEW MEXICO A N N DAKOTA A A S DAKOTA A A
NEBRASKA A A KANSAS A N OKLAHOMA A N
N TEXAS A N S TEXAS A B W TEXAS A N
MINNESOTA A A IOWA A A MISSOURI A A
ARKANSAS A N LOUISIANA A N WISCONSIN A A
ILLINOIS A A MISSISSIPPI A A MICHIGAN A A
INDIANA A A OHIO A A KENTUCKY A A
TENNESSEE A A ALABAMA A A NEW YORK A A
VERMONT A A NEW HAMP A A MAINE A A
MASS A A CONN A A RHODE IS A A
PENN A A NEW JERSEY A A W VIRGINIA A A
MARYLAND A A DELAWARE A A VIRGINIA A A
N CAROLINA A A S CAROLINA A A GEORGIA A A
FL PNHDL A A FL PENIN N N AK N SLOPE B N
AK ALEUTIAN B N AK WESTERN B N AK INT BSN B N
AK S INT B N AK SO COAST B N AK PNHDL B A
LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW B - BELOW
THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.
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