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FXUS06 KWBC 212003
PMDMRD
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD
300 PM EST WED FEBRUARY 21 2024
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR FEB 27 - MAR 02, 2024
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE MEAN PLACEMENT OF THE LARGE-SCALE MID-LEVEL
FEATURES, AND AGREEMENT ON THE DETAILS ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE PATTERN AND ON
THE STRENGTH AND PLACEMENT OF INDIVIDUAL SYSTEMS IS A LITTLE BETTER THAN
YESTERDAY, BUT CONTINUE TO INTRODUCE UNCERTAINTIES. MOST TOOLS CENTER A MEAN
NEGATIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALY OVER OR NEAR FAR WESTERN CANADA, WITH NEGATIVE
HEIGHT ANOMALIES COVERING A LARGE AREA FROM ALASKA INTO MOST OF THE WESTERN AND
CENTRAL CONTIGUOUS UNITED STATES (CONUS). DOWNSTREAM, MODELS GENERALLY AGREE
THAT POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES WILL EXTEND FROM THE FAR SOUTHERN TIER
OF THE CONUS THROUGH MUCH OF EASTERN NORTH AMERICA, WITH THE LARGEST 500-HPA
POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES CENTERED JUST EAST OF ATLANTIC CANADA. IN GENERAL,
MODELS HAVE TRENDED SLIGHTLY TOWARD THE SOMEWHAT MORE AMPLIFIED EUROPEAN
ENSEMBLE MEAN.
THE CONSISTENCY IN THE MEAN 500-HPA FIELDS, HOWEVER, IS STILL NOT WELL MATCHED
IN THE DAILY EVOLUTION OF INDIVIDUAL FEATURES, MOST NOTABLY REGARDING THE
WESTERN NORTH AMERICA MID-LEVEL TROUGH. THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH A MID-LEVEL
TROUGH POSITIONED INLAND OVER THE WESTERN CONUS IN THE EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN,
CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN, AND THE GEFS, BUT FROM THERE, DIFFERENCES BEGIN TO
EMERGE. THE GEFS TAKES A COHERENT MID-LEVEL SYSTEM EASTWARD INTO THE
NORTH-CENTRAL CONUS AND GREAT LAKES BEFORE RE-LOADING THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH WEST
OF THE CONUS PACIFIC COAST. IN CONTRAST, THE EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN STARTS WITH
A BROADER AND DEEPER SHORTWAVE OVER THE INTERIOR WEST, AND WASHES OUT THIS
INITIAL SYSTEM QUICKLY, MAINTAINING A STRONGER AND MORE STATIONARY MID-LEVEL
TROUGH CENTERED OVER FAR WESTERN CANADA WITH AN AXIS EXTENDING SOUTHWARD JUST
OFF THE NORTHWESTERN CONUS COAST. THE CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN MORE CLOSELY
RESEMBLES THE EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN, BUT IS LESS AMPLIFIED.
PRECIPITATION OUTPUTS IN THE ENSEMBLE MEANS HAVE ALSO BEEN EDGING SLOWLY TOWARD
THE EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN, WHICH KEEPS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN WEST
COAST IN A FAVORABLE POSITION FOR CONSISTENT MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION
FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD, WHILE THE GEFS SCENARIO FAVORS DECREASED PRECIPITATION
AROUND THE MIDDLE OF THE PERIOD WITH MODERATE PRECIPITATION RE-DEVELOPING
TOWARD DAY 10. THE DAILY SOLUTIONS TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD ARE A LITTLE
FASTER IN THE CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN, WITH A PIECE OF VORTICITY IN THE RELOADED
TROUGH PUSHING INLAND TOWARD THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST LATE IN THE PERIOD. AS A
RESULT, THE GEFS DROPS LESS PRECIPITATION ON THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN WEST
COAST THAN THE EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN, BUT THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE TWO IS
SMALLER THAN YESTERDAY, WITH THE GEFS EDGING TOWARD THE WETTER EUROPEAN
ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTION. TOTALS IN THE CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN SPLIT THE TWO BUT
ARE A BIT CLOSER TO THE EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN. THIS DIFFERENCE IN
PRECIPITATION OUTPUTS IS MAGNIFIED IN THE REFORECASTS, BUT AS IN THE RAW
OUTPUT, THE TOTALS HAVE INCREASED COMPARED TO YESTERDAY IN THE GEFS, ESPECIALLY
IN THE CENTRAL WEST COAST. THE SCENARIO SHOWN BY THE EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN IS
FAVORED DUE TO THE SHIFT IN ITS DIRECTION BY THE GEFS, BUT THE GEFS SCENARIO
REMAINS REASONABLE AND IS NOT COMPLETELY DISCOUNTED, THUS THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
IS A BLEND OF THE TWO LEANING TOWARD THE EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN. THE CANADIAN
ENSEMBLE MEAN ADDS CREDENCE TO THIS APPROACH, SPLITTING THE DIFFERENCE BUT
LEANING SLIGHTLY TOWARD THE EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN. THE RESULTING FORECAST HAS
ODDS FOR WETNESS EXCEED 60 PERCENT IN THE CENTRAL WEST COAST, AND TOPS 50
PERCENT FROM CENTRAL CALIFORNIA NORTHWARD TO THE CANADIAN BORDER.
ELSEWHERE, THE PRECIPITATION FORECAST TOOLS ARE MORE SIMILAR, AND THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THESE SOLUTIONS, FAVORING ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION
ALONG THE NORTHERN TIER OF STATES, THE OHIO VALLEY, AND ADJACENT AREAS. THERE
ARE REDUCED CHANCES FOR HEAVY PRECIPITATION IN THE GREAT PLAINS - ESPECIALLY
THE SOUTHERN HALF - WHICH IS CONSISTENT WITH A POTENTIAL STORM TRACK FROM THE
ROCKIES TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES FOLLOWING THE INITIAL MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH.
THE AFOREMENTIONED UNCERTAINTIES IN THE EVOLUTION OF THE MID-LEVEL PATTERN DO
NOT IMPLY SIGNIFICANTLY DIFFERENT TEMPERATURE PATTERNS ACROSS NORTH AMERICA.
ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED DOWNSTREAM FROM THE WESTERN CONUS TROUGH
AXIS AND UNDER THE ABOVE-NORMAL MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS COVERING THE EASTERN CONUS.
THIS AREA IS EXPECTED TO EXPERIENCE PRIMARILY SOUTHERLY OR SOUTHWESTERLY
SURFACE FLOW, WHICH ALSO FAVORS MILD WEATHER ACROSS THIS REGION. ODDS FOR
WARMTH EXCEED 80 PERCENT FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES EASTWARD THROUGH THE
NORTHERN OHIO VALLEY, MID-ATLANTIC REGION, AND LOWER NORTHEAST. IN THE WEST,
RAW AND BIAS-CORRECTED FORECASTS FAVOR SUBNORMAL TEMPERATURES, BUT THE
REFORECAST TOOLS ARE MILDER, SHOWING NEAR- TO ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN MOST
LOCATIONS THERE. THE REFORECASTS, HOWEVER, HAVE BEEN TRENDING TOWARD THE COLDER
TOOLS OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS, SO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FAVORS THE PREPONDERANCE
OF TOOLS, WITH BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE WEST. THIS IS ALSO CONSISTENT
WITH THE SUBNORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS.
WITH BELOW-NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS DOMINATING ALASKA AND A MEAN SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM SOMEWHERE NEAR THE SOUTHEASTERN COASTLINE, BELOW-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE OVERWHELMINGLY FAVORED ACROSS MOST OF THE STATE, WITH THE BEST
ODDS (OVER 80 PERCENT) ACROSS MOST OF SOUTHERN MAINLAND. THE MEAN POSITION OF
THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE NEAR SOUTHEAST ALASKA LOOKS TO BE SLIGHTLY SOUTHEAST
OF ITS POSITION YESTERDAY, REDUCING ANY MILD SURFACE FLOW FROM THE SOUTH. THUS
THE ODDS FOR COLDER THAN NORMAL WEATHER ARE MORE ENHANCED THAN YESTERDAY. MUCH
OF ALASKA - BEING NEAR OR UPSTREAM FROM THE MEAN MID-LEVEL TROUGH POSITION -
HAS ELEVATED CHANCES OF BEING DRIER THAN NORMAL EXCEPT ALONG THE SOUTHERN TIER
CLOSER TO THE MEAN LOCATION OF THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER. THIS
CIRCULATION COULD BRING ONSHORE FLOW INTO SOUTHEASTERN ALASKA AT TIMES, WHICH
SUPPORTS A FORECAST OF NEAR- OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IN FAR
SOUTHEASTERN AREAS.
WETTER AND GENERALLY COOLER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS ARE MARGINALLY FAVORED
ACROSS HAWAII DOWNSTREAM FROM AN ENCROACHING MID-LEVEL TROUGH. THE OUTLOOK FOR
KAUAI AND OAHU IS A BIT MILDER, WITH 500-HPA HEIGHTS CLOSER TO NORMAL THAN
OTHER AREAS. AS A RESULT, THE FORECAST FAVORS NEITHER ABOVE- NOR BELOW-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.
THE OFFICIAL 6-10 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF 35% OF TODAY'S GFS
SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 45% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 8, 10% OF YESTERDAY'S OPERATIONAL 12Z ECMWF CENTERED ON DAY 7,
AND 10% OF YESTERDAY'S 12Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 7
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: ABOVE NORMAL, 4 OUT OF 5, WITH
UNCERTAINTIES IN THE EVOLUTION OF FEATURES DECREASING RELATIVE TO YESTERDAY,
AND OFFSET BY BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE MEAN PATTERN AND THE DERIVED TEMPERATURE
AND PRECIPITATION TOOLS.
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR FEB 29 - MAR 06, 2024
THE DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS DURING THE 6- TO 10-DAY PERIOD EXTRAPOLATE INTO
WEEK-2, WITH DECENT AGREEMENT ON THE LARGE-SCALE MEAN PATTERN BUT MODEL
DIFFERENCES IN THE EVOLUTION OF INDIVIDUAL FEATURES. A FAIRLY STRONG MID-LEVEL
RIDGE IS FORECAST SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST OF THE ALEUTIANS, AND IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN
PUSHING TOWARD SOUTHWESTERN ALASKA BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. THE MEAN MID-LEVEL
TROUGH WITH SUBNORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS SHOULD PERSIST, WITH AN AXIS NEAR EASTERN
MAINLAND ALASKA EXTENDING SOUTHWARD ALONG OR NEAR THE COAST OF WESTERN NORTH
AMERICA. THE 500-HPA HEIGHT PATTERN IS ALSO SIMILAR TO THE 6- TO 10-DAY MEAN
HEIGHT PATTERN FARTHER EAST, DIVIDING THE CONUS APPROXIMATELY IN HALF, WITH
BELOW-NORMAL MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS OVER MOST OF THE WESTERN HALF, AND MID-LEVEL
RIDGING COVERING THE EASTERN HALF WITH THE MAXIMUM POSITIVE ANOMALIES CENTERED
OVER ATLANTIC CANADA.
THE EVOLUTION OF INDIVIDUAL FEATURES FROM THE NORTH PACIFIC INTO THE WESTERN
CONUS REMAINS VERY UNCERTAIN DURING THIS PERIOD. THE TIMING AND MAGNITUDE OF
MID-LEVEL FEATURES ARE DIFFERENT IN EACH OF THE ENSEMBLE MEANS, THOUGH ALL
AGREE THAT AT LEAST ONE SUBSTANTIAL STORM SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE WEST DURING
WEEK-2. THE EUROPEAN ENSEMBLES AND ITS DERIVED TOOLS ARE NO LONGER WETTER THAN
THE GEFS TOOLS, WHICH RESULTS FROM THE GEFS RELOADING THE WESTERN NORTH
AMERICAN TROUGH LATER IN THE PERIOD WHILE THE EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEANS BEGIN TO
DEAMPLIFY THE PATTERN. THE TIMING IN THE CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN IS DIFFERENT
THAN EITHER THE GEFS OR THE EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN, BUT DOES SHOW A TREND
TOWARD DEAMPLIFICATION LATER IN THE PERIOD SIMILAR TO THE EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE
MEAN. BUT DESPITE THESE DIFFERENCES, THE LARGE MAJORITY OF THE TOOLS
SUBSTANTIALLY FAVOR ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
PARTS OF THE WEST.
FARTHER EAST, WITH A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE DAY-TO-DAY EVOLUTION OF
INDIVIDUAL FEATURES, THE FORECAST LEANS TOWARD IMPLICATIONS OF THE MEAN
MID-LEVEL PATTERN AND THE DERIVED TOOLS. AREAS FROM THE ROCKIES EASTWARD SHOULD
BE EXPERIENCING A PREVAILING SURFACE FLOW FROM THE SOUTHWEST OR SOUTH AND
CYCLONICALLY-CURVED MID-LEVEL FLOW EXTENDING FROM THE WESTERN TROUGH TO THE
RIDGE AXIS JUST EAST OF THE CONUS - A PATTERN THAT LEANS TOWARD ABOVE-NORMAL
PRECIPITATION ACROSS MOST OF THE CONUS. THE GREATEST CHANCES FOR WETNESS EAST
OF THE ROCKIES COVER THE GREAT LAKES AND ADJACENT AREAS (AND THE WESTERN AND
CENTRAL GULF COAST!), WHICH WILL BE NEAR A WAVERING FRONTAL SYSTEM
EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE EXPECTED STORM TRACK AND MEAN SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
POSITION. THE OUTLOOK IS DRIER FOR MOST OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS,
WHERE SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE FLOW WOULD BRING IN RELATIVELY DRY AIR, RESULTING
IN A FORECAST WHICH FAVORS NEITHER PRECIPITATION EXTREME.
THERE REMAINS A STRONG TILT TOWARD ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES EAST OF THE
ROCKIES, WITH ODDS EXCEEDING 70 PERCENT FROM THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
EASTWARD INTO THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS AND THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC REGION. FROM
THE ROCKIES WESTWARD, RAW AND BIAS-CORRECTED OUTPUT FROM THE ENSEMBLE MEANS
ONCE AGAIN FAVOR COLDER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS WHILE THE REFORECAST PRODUCTS
SHOW MILDER CONDITIONS. AS IN THE 6- TO 10-DAY FORECAST, THE PREPONDERANCE OF
THE GUIDANCE AND THE PREVAILING MID-LEVEL PATTERN IMPLY COOLER THAN NORMAL
CONDITIONS THERE, AND THAT IS REFLECTED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.
THE STRONG MID-LEVEL TROUGH NEAR ALASKA AND BELOW-NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS ACROSS
MOST OF THE STATE CONTINUE TO HEAVILY FAVOR COLDER THAN NORMAL WEATHER
THROUGHOUT WEEK-2, WITH ODDS EXCEEDING 80 PERCENT IN SOUTH-CENTRAL PARTS OF THE
MAINLAND. HOWEVER, ABOVE-NORMAL HEIGHTS WILL BE SLOWLY PUSHING INTO THE STATE
FROM THE SOUTHWEST, SLIGHTLY ENHANCING ODDS FOR ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE ALEUTIANS. WITH MUCH OF THE STATE POSITIONED
UPSTREAM FROM A FAIRLY STRONG MEAN MID-LEVEL TROUGH, DRIER THAN NORMAL
CONDITIONS ARE FAVORED OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PARTS OF THE STATE WHILE
PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST TO BE CLOSER TO NORMAL ALONG THE SOUTHERN TIER,
CLOSER TO THE MEAN POSITION OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE.
THE MID-LEVEL PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRANSITIONING TOWARD A TROUGH
AXIS WEST OF HAWAII, ENHANCING ODDS FOR ABNORMALLY WET WEATHER STATEWIDE, AND
BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURE IN THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ISLANDS FOR WEEK-2.
THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF: 40% OF TODAY'S GFS
SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 40% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 11, AND 20% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON
DAY 11
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: ABOUT NORMAL, 3 OUT OF 5, WITH
LARGE UNCERTAINTIES IN THE EVOLUTION OF INDIVIDUAL FEATURES TEMPERED BY DECENT
AGREEMENT IN THE MEAN POSITION OF 500-HPA ANOMALIES AND THE MODEL-DERIVED
TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TOOLS.
FORECASTER: RICH TINKER
NOTES:
AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OCCASIONALLY MANUAL
INTERVENTION IS NECESSARY TO ADDRESS QUALITY CONTROL AND CONSISTENCY ISSUES. IN
THESE CASES, FORECASTS ARE MANUALLY DRAWN BUT A FULL DISCUSSION IS NOT ISSUED.
THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS THE SAME AS
THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW
THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER (ORANGE,
"A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N"). HISTORICAL AVERAGE
VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST (DASHES, "F"). LABELS ON THE
SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).
PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WETTER (GREEN,
"A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N"). HISTORICAL MEDIAN VALUES
FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST (DASHES, "INCHES"). LABELS ON THE
SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).
PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL BE A
GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY EVEN A NORMAL
(I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES
A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO
PRECIPITATION.
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1991-2020 BASE PERIOD MEANS AS REFERENCE IN
THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS.
THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON
MARCH 21.
ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
19590218 - 20010217 - 19730222 - 19700223 - 19900302
ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
19590218 - 20010216 - 20000218 - 19730201 - 19900302
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR FEB 27 - MAR 02, 2024
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON B A OREGON B A NRN CALIF B A
SRN CALIF B A IDAHO B A NEVADA B A
W MONTANA B A E MONTANA N A WYOMING N A
UTAH B A ARIZONA N A COLORADO A A
NEW MEXICO A A N DAKOTA A A S DAKOTA A N
NEBRASKA A N KANSAS A N OKLAHOMA A N
N TEXAS A N S TEXAS A N W TEXAS A B
MINNESOTA A A IOWA A A MISSOURI A A
ARKANSAS A N LOUISIANA A A WISCONSIN A A
ILLINOIS A A MISSISSIPPI A A MICHIGAN A A
INDIANA A A OHIO A A KENTUCKY A A
TENNESSEE A A ALABAMA A A NEW YORK A A
VERMONT A A NEW HAMP A A MAINE A A
MASS A A CONN A A RHODE IS A A
PENN A A NEW JERSEY A A W VIRGINIA A A
MARYLAND A A DELAWARE A A VIRGINIA A A
N CAROLINA A A S CAROLINA A A GEORGIA A A
FL PNHDL A A FL PENIN A N AK N SLOPE B B
AK ALEUTIAN B N AK WESTERN B B AK INT BSN B B
AK S INT B N AK SO COAST B N AK PNHDL B N
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR FEB 29 - MAR 06, 2024
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON B A OREGON B A NRN CALIF B A
SRN CALIF B A IDAHO B A NEVADA B A
W MONTANA B A E MONTANA N A WYOMING N A
UTAH B A ARIZONA B N COLORADO A N
NEW MEXICO A N N DAKOTA A A S DAKOTA A A
NEBRASKA A N KANSAS A N OKLAHOMA A N
N TEXAS A A S TEXAS A A W TEXAS A N
MINNESOTA A A IOWA A A MISSOURI A A
ARKANSAS A A LOUISIANA A A WISCONSIN A A
ILLINOIS A A MISSISSIPPI A A MICHIGAN A A
INDIANA A A OHIO A A KENTUCKY A A
TENNESSEE A A ALABAMA A A NEW YORK A A
VERMONT A A NEW HAMP A A MAINE A A
MASS A A CONN A A RHODE IS A A
PENN A A NEW JERSEY A A W VIRGINIA A A
MARYLAND A A DELAWARE A A VIRGINIA A A
N CAROLINA A A S CAROLINA A A GEORGIA A A
FL PNHDL A A FL PENIN A A AK N SLOPE B B
AK ALEUTIAN B N AK WESTERN B B AK INT BSN B B
AK S INT B N AK SO COAST B N AK PNHDL B N
LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW B - BELOW
THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.
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